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6/30/09
Albert Pujols is close to winning the Triple Crown
It hasn't happened since Yaz, but what are the chances of Albert Pujols winning the Triple Crown?
12
Albert Pujols currently leads the league in HR and RBI, and is 8th in batting average. Viva La Vidro puts his chances at the following:
Chances of leading the league in HR: 75%
Chances of leading the league in RBI: 60%
Chances of leading the league in AVG: 90%
Chances of winning the Triple Crown: 50%

Mathematically speaking, if the odds were really 75%, 60% and 90%, then the overall odds would be at around 40.5%... but who's counting.

Either way, what do you think the chances are that Pujols pulls it off?
12 comments
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6/30/09
0
Who else would win it?
 

6/30/09
0
I don't think it will happen. I think he is one of the current players who COULD do it, but I don't think he will this year.

6/30/09
0
 Never going to happen again.  Its like someone getting hits in 57 straight games. Not Gonna happen.

6/30/09
1
I don't think he'll win the triple crown. I remember saying the same thing about Mind that Bird. (sorry, I couldn't resist) Seriously, even though I doubt that he will, if anyone can it's Pujols. I'm from Houston, so I can tell you first hand what kind of damage he can do. In fact, NASA is still tracking the homer he hit in the 2005 playoffs on Brad Lidge.

6/30/09
0
Not gonna happen this year. Pujols is too far behind on BA.

6/30/09
2
mk_donley wrote:
Not gonna happen this year. Pujols is too far behind on BA.
He's .011 behind the leader right now, and his a career average is higher than anyone in front of him. I would bet money that Miguel Tejada, Pablo Sandoval, Juan Pierre and Hanley Ramirez will end up in the .315-.320 range at the most, and Beltran may need knee surgery. So that leaves David Wright, who is in a slump right now, and already lost 14 points in the past few days. That's not out of the question at all.

Like calvin1245 said, the problem is that he might not get the RBI's, because the lineup around him isn't good enough.

6/30/09
2
Another factor against Pujols is that his team is right in the thick of the race in the division.  In fact, from 1st to last in the NL Central is only separated by 6 games and the Cardinals have most of there games left with the Cubs, Brewers, Reds and Astros.   With no team making any type of move to run away with the division, there could be 4 or 5 teams fighting for the title as the summer rolls on.  Bad lineup or not, the longer the division stays so close together, the least likely it is Pujols is going to see any pitches to hit.  He already leads the league by a wide margin in intentional walks and until somebody steps up consistently to protect him, I see no reason why any team gives Pujols anything to hit. 

6/30/09
0
It's probably unlikely, but if there was one guy who could do it, it's Pujols.

6/30/09
1
 won't happen because there is no protection for Pujols in the Cards lineup... too easy to pitch around him


Remember when Bonds' average was so high??? It was because he'd get hits and then get walked even more making his average higher. Pujols could do that. And considering David Wright isn't very far ahead, I'd say he's got a shot, but also remember Fielder could get him in RBIs as well. 

7/1/09
0
Yes, Pujols is going to start getting the Bonds treatment (hopefully it won't get quite as ridiculous-- didn't Bonds at least once get an intentional pass with the bases loaded?). That will push his average up and he's very likely to win the batting title, but at the same time his HR and RBI totals will ge reduced. But they will still be gaudy numbers--  if he didn't play another game this year, his numbers right now would already look like a great season!

7/1/09
2
 I'd walk Pujols with the bases loaded, that's actually worth it I believe. In 6 bases loaded at bats this year he's batting .833 with 3 HRs and 16 RBIs. Just walk him and get the next worthless Cardinal hitter out. They will strike out for you if you just ask them too. 

 
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