Cross the Phillies off for repeating as World Series champs in 2009. Chase Utley will have right hip surgery, and will miss the next four to six months.
1. As long as a team gets into the playoffs, then they have a chance to win the World Series. There are plenty of examples of Wild Card or teams that won a bad division and would not have won the Wild Card that have won the World Series, 2006 Cardinals or 2003 Marlins quickly come to mind.
2. A division/season can not be won in the first few months of a season, but can be lost in the begining of a season. At least Utley will miss the begining of the season, and not the end of the season.
3. The Phillies have proven that they can win without Utley in the lineup in 2007 when he missed a month in August with a broken hand. Now can they win without him for 2 or 3 months, we will see.
4. In 2008, the Phillies lost JRoll after the 1st week of the season until the middle of May, and at the same time lost Victornio for a 2 week period. The Phillies were still able to hang above .500 without their MVP Leadoff HItter and Gold Glove SS, and Victornio another Gold Glove defensive player who could be a leadoff hitter on about 80% of the teams out there.
5. My point is that the Phillies have proven in the past that they can win without Utley, JRoll, and Victorino for a period of time. All they need to do is just hang around until Utley comes back.