Coach: John Calipari (first year)
Last season's record: 22-14
Spotlight player
Everybody is waiting to see freshman point guard John Wall. Everybody knows what to expect from junior Patrick Patterson. But the guy whose performance might make the greatest difference is freshman big man DeMarcus Cousins. He's more of a variable. Cousins has the kind of size and athleticism that makes Al Jefferson so imposing for the Minnesota Timberwolves. Cousins is 6-11, 260 and looks a bit like a small forward when he's on the move. How quickly will he make an impact, though? It can be easier for a big man to handle early games, when people are pleased he's providing a presence. Executing against high-level opponents, though, can be a stretch because they'll force Cousins into defensive situations—guarding the pick-and-roll, for instance—that will be new to him. He'll need to function with an unfamiliar level of intensity.
Reason to hope
Like the player to whom he is commonly compared, Derrick Rose, Wall is not just a freakishly gifted athlete for his position. Wall is a committed team player even if he'll be with this team a single year. Wall is an even more comfortable leader than Rose. That charisma will make Kentucky's other players more effective. And there are lots of good players here. The right role players remain. Those who no longer perceive Perry Stevenson, Ramon Harris and DeAndre Liggins as useful are being too dismissive based on last year's misery. Though there might be an adjustment, Patterson will be a star in Calipari's dribble-drive motion system.
Reason to mope
Calipari's great 2008 Memphis team won 38 games with a starting lineup that managed only 3½ made 3-pointers per game, but it's not the recommended dose of long-range shooting in pursuit of an NCAA championship. This team might be even weaker in that department. UK's returning players made a combined 45 3-pointers last season. What's that, like two games' worth for Mississippi State? There's also the matter of patience. This team is learning an entirely new system, and though the schedule is built for that there might be some unexpected defeats. Can the fan base allow the team to grow at its own pace?
Bottom line
Kentucky is not ideally suited to win the national championship. Only one team is, which is why that team happens to be our No. 1 pick, and pretty much everyone else's. UK ranks this high because it has the next-best talent and because its coach proved he can take that kind of talent and turn it into a championship contender. There will need to be a stunning amount of progress between now and April for Kentucky to win six consecutive NCAA Tournament games. But five does seem to be within reach.
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