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12/16/08
NFL MVP Predictions: Adrian Peterson, Brett Favre, Kurt Warner, Drew Brees In The Running
Who's Leading The MVP Race, Now That Kurt Warner Has Dropped A Few Notches?
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NFL
As the NFL season comes to a close, it's time to start thinking about the postseason awards. Last year, the MVP was a runaway, with Tom Brady taking 49 of 50 possible 1st place votes. This year, there are quite a few candidates, but no clear cut favorite. Here are a list of 14 of the top candidates, in reverse order of how I would vote them.

14: Matt Ryan, QB, Atlanta Falcons
Why he could win it: Ryan will be the Offensive Rookie of the Year, without a doubt. His only possible competition is Matt Forte, but Ryan has led the Falcons to an amazing turnaround, and has shown the same kind of clutch performance that we saw from him at Boston College. Someday, he'll be a great QB, and he's well on his way right now.

Why he won't win it: The Falcons' turnaround could be considered equally due to the performance of RB Michael Turner, who is 2nd in the league in rushing. And although Ryan has a QB rating of 90, his 14 TD's won't impress too many voters enough to give him the nod.

13: Chad Pennington, QB, Miami Dolphins
Why he could win it: The Dolphins have had the biggest turnaround in the league, and a large part of that has been Pennington. He has quietly put together a great season, and is a big reason why the Dolphins are on pace to set a record for fewest turnovers in a season.

Why he won't win it: He's still Chad Pennington, and like Ryan, his TD totals aren't impressive. The voters love stats, and Pennington's numbers are nice, but not elite. Also, the Dolphins may miss the playoffs. If that happens, then it would take a super human performance from Pennington to win it, and he simply hasn't done that.

12: DeMarcus Ware, LB, Dallas Cowboys
Why he could win it: Through 14 games he has 19 sacks. If he gets 4 more in the next two games, Michael Strahan's fraudulent single-season record will fall like Brett Favre did for Strahan. Ware also has 4 forced fumbles, and has been the anchor for the Cowboys defense.

Why he won't win it: The first reason is that he plays defense. This is a league enamored with offensive firepower and scoring. Most people don't like games where two teams grind it out, and a team wins 10-7. Therefore, defensive players rarely receive the recognition they deserve. Also, the Cowboys aren't known for being an incredible offensive team, so Ware won't get as many accolades as he may deserve. Also, there are many Cowboys in the spotlight on a daily basis, but usually Ware isn't one of them.

11. Clinton Portis, RB, Washington Redskins
Why he could win it:
He's the backbone of the Redskins offense, and is 3rd in the league in rushing. He has 6 games with 120 or more rushing yards.

Why he won't win it: The Redskins aren't going to make the playoffs. That definitely puts a damper on his "value", since they could have missed the playoffs even if he was horrible.

10: Troy Polamalu, Safety, Pittsburgh Steelers
Why he could win it: Polamalu leads the league in interceptions, and is one of the leaders of the best defense in the league. He's the face of the Steelers defense, and they allow the fewest yards and points per game in the entire NFL.

Why he won't win it: His teammate on defense, James Harrison is equally impressive (if not more), and Polamalu is probably the league leader in missed tackles, since he has a tendency to fly past every other play. Also, an inordinate amount of people think that Ben Roethlisberger is the MVP of that team. Oh yeah, and he plays defense. So no one will vote for him.

9: Michael Turner, RB, Atlanta Falcons
Why he could win it: Turner is 2nd in the league in rushing, and has been a huge part of the Falcons turnaround. He has rushed  for 96 or more yards 8 times, and the Falcons are 8-0 in those 8 games.

Why he won't win it: Matt Ryan is the face of the franchise, and many people are giving him the credit for their success, which diminishes Turner's value in some people's eyes. And in the 6 games where Turner rushed for less than 96 yards, the Falcons were 1-5. He needs to be more consistent to be MVP material.

8: Brett Favre, QB, New York Jets
Why he could win it:
Last year, the Jets were 4-12. This year, they're tied for the lead in the AFC East at 9-5. Many attribute their success to the arrival of Favre from Green Bay. When he showed up, there was an undeniable shift in the composure of the team. Also, it's been proven that he will get votes whether he deserves it or not. Remember last year, when Tom Brady only got 49 out of 50 MVP votes? Guess who got the other one... That's right, Favre. So if he could get a vote last year, he could definitely get a few this year.

Why he won't win it: Chad Pennington's performance in Miami should tell people that the QB position wasn't the only problem with them last year. And it's not the only need that the Jets addressed. They also picked up Alan Faneca and Kris Jenkins, who have been dominant pieces of the offensive and defensive lines, respectively. Anyone who really understands the entire scope of a football game knows that the addition of Favre helped their mentality more than anything else.

7: Eli Manning, QB, New York Giants
Why he could win it:
The Giants are regarded by many as the most complete team in the league. Their offense and defense have both done well, and they're sitting on top of the NFC. Also, Eli's Super Bowl performance opened a lot of eyes, and he may get some carryover support from that. The fact that the Giants have been able to perform well without Plaxico Burress for so long is impressive. Even before the shooting incident, he missed some time due to injury.

Why he won't win it: His QB rating is only 86.4, good for 16th in the league. Also, Brandon Jacobs has been as big a part of their offensive succes as anyone. Unless Eli has 2 monster games to finish the season, people will be hesitant to give him their vote.

6: Albert Haynesworth, DT, Tennessee Titans
Why he could win it:
He's the unquestioned leader of an incredible Tennessee defense. He's a solid player against the run and the pass, with 8.5 sacks, 51 tackles and 3 forced fumbles. The success of the Titans has hinged on Haynesworth for a couple years now, including when Vince Young won the Rookie of the Year. Their wins had far less to do with VY, and far more to do with Haynesworth.

Why he won't win it: He won't win for several reasons. He's a defensive player, his numbers don't blow anyone away, and many people still haven't forgiven him for the head stomp incident a few years ago, when he stomped on Andre Gurode's exposed head.

5: Kurt Warner, QB, Arizona Cardinals
Why he could win it:
Kurt has had one of the best seasons of his career, and the Cardinals won their division for the first time in over 30 years. He could break Dan Marino's record for passing yards in a single season, leads the league in completion percentage, and has a 97.5 QB rating. He is playing as well as he ever has, and the Cardinals offense has some of the best passing numbers in the league.

Why he won't win it: The NFC West is simply awful. It's the worst division in football, and the Cardinals play 6 games against 3 teams who have a combined record of 10-32 right now. Also, it makes things easier for Warner when he's throwing to Anquan Boldin and Larry Fitzgerald, two of the best WR's in the game. It's not his fault, but some people will hold it against him anyway. Also, the Cardinals have lost 3 of their last 4, severely hampering Warner's MVP chances.

4: Drew Brees, QB, New Orleans Saints
Why he could win it:
Much like Warner, Brees is having a year for the ages. He also has a chance to break Marino's single season yardage record, and is ahead of Warner right now. He also leads the league in TD passes, and has a QB rating of 93.9.

Why he won't win it: The Saints missed the playoffs. It's that simple. If they made the playoffs, he could have been a lock.

3: James Harrison, LB, Pittsburgh Steelers
Why he could win it: Harrison is having a ridiculous year for the Steelers, and is looking like the most dominant overall defensive player in football. He has 94 tackles, 15 sacks, 7 forced fumbles and an interception. Their defense is the best in football, and Harrison is the best player on their defense.

Why he won't win it: Many people still see Troy Polamalu as the Steelers defensive leader, and Roethlisberger as their overall leader. Because of that, Harrison is sometimes forgotten. Also, he's still a defensive player, so he will struggle to get the votes that he deserves.

2. Peyton Manning, QB, Indianapolis Colts
Why he could win it: The Colts are currently on a 7 game winning streak, and Peyton has thrown for 13 TD's and only 3 INT's in that span. He shook off a rough start to lead the Colts right back into the hunt, and they may be the hottest team in football once the playoffs start. Also, he's Peyton Manning. Everyone loves Peyton Manning (outside of New England).

Why he might not win it: That rough start might scare some people away, and there is certainly a valid argument to be made the Adrian Peterson was more valuable this year.

1. Adrian Peterson, RB, Minnesota Vikings
Why he could win it: He's leading the league in rushing yards, and has carried the Vikings on his back on their way to a possible division title with Gus Frerotte and Tarvaris Jackson splitting time at the QB position. He's on pace for 1800 yards, and he has been the model of consistency, with only one game in which he averaged less than 4.4 yards per carry.

Why he might not win it: If the Vikings miss the playoffs, he won't win the MVP. Otherwise, there's really not a whole lot of reasons not to have him at least in the top 2. The fact that he's not a QB hurts him a little bit, but running backs have won several MVP's lately, so he has a great chance.


Who's your choice for MVP?
15 comments
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Your votes determine top comment

12/16/08
9
I'll have none of this Kurt Warner at #5 talk. Give that man the MVP!

12/16/08
9
I'll have none of this Kurt Warner at #5 talk. Give that man the MVP!

12/16/08
5

These awards are laughable anyhow, we know it'll go to a QB or RB when there is plenty of more deserving defensive players.

Oh well, ultimately it doesn't really mater anyway.


12/16/08
4
1. ALL DAY
2. Kurt Warner (he's got the stats and took the nobody cardinals to division champs)
3. Demarcus Ware (only if he breaks the sack record. if not, he should at least get defensive POTY)
4. Drew Brees (if you're a stats whore)
5. Chad Pennington (his stats aren't amazing but very solid. he's been a great steal for Miami in helping them return to an AFC contender)

12/16/08
2
Where's sack machine Joey Porter?

12/16/08
1
too open. no clear winner yet. no mention of other possibilties: steve smith, andre johnson, or even kerry collins

12/16/08
3
Adrian "AD" Peterson BABY!

12/16/08
4
AP! no question! i believe AP will earn first MVP! last year, he won rookie of year so this year will be his earn first MVP. AP rocks!

12/16/08
3
matto214 wrote:
AP! no question! i believe AP will earn first MVP! last year, he won rookie of year so this year will be his earn first MVP. AP rocks!
its AD as in All Day not ap     but you are right     BOOMER SOONER

12/16/08
7
hearonk wrote:
its AD as in All Day not ap     but you are right     BOOMER SOONER
Thanks, Billy Sims.

12/16/08
3
primo wrote:
too open. no clear winner yet. no mention of other possibilties: steve smith, andre johnson, or even kerry collins
Not disagreeing with the first two, but Kerry Collins has a lower QB rating than VY.  Collins sucks.

12/16/08
3
I would lean towards Peytron more if he'd had a better year; he's been OK, but not MVP -worthy.  And Pat was dead on about the defensive players...so out of who's left, my vote would go to Adrian(All Day) Peterson, since the Vikings SHOULD make the playoffs(even though they're STILL the Vikings(sorry,Jason!)

12/17/08
1
primo wrote:
too open. no clear winner yet. no mention of other possibilties: steve smith, andre johnson, or even kerry collins
 lol Kerry Collins???

12/17/08
0
BestofChicago wrote:
 lol Kerry Collins???
no.

 
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