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4/11/07
NHL First Round Breakdown and Predictions: Eastern Conference
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The time has finally come for the NHL Playoffs.  16 teams have have made it to the playoffs, and by the end of the playoffs, only one will remain.  In the NHL Playoffs, nothing is a lock, and ANYTHING can happen.  Last season, the 5, 6, 7 and 8 seeds all won their first round games in the Western Conference, and the 8 seeded Oilers found their way to the finals.  We know we won't have a repeat final, or even half of that, with both finalists from last year falling short of the postseason.

 

Now, we will look at this year's first round matchups.  Which teams will continue on the quest to hoist the shiny Stanley Cup?  Let's start with the Eastern Conference

 

 VS

(1) Buffalo Sabres vs (8) New York Islanders

 

The Sabres won the season series against the Islanders 3-1 this year.  All season the Sabres offense has been virtually untouchable, scoring goal after goal.  To beat the Sabres, you have to shut down the offense, because the defense is average at best.  


Shutting down the Sabres requires great defense and a great goalie.  The starter DiPietro is still hurt and likely won't play, and although Dubielewicz has been hot as of late, can he stop this offense?  I think he may get them a win, but the Sabres are going to score a ton of goals, and the Islanders won't be able to match it. 


My Pick: Sabres win in 5 games.

FanIQ says: Sabres in 5 (54%)

 

VS
(2) New Jersey Devils vs (7) Tampa Bay Lightning

 

These two teams are very different from each other.  The Devils have found their success with great defensive play, and Martin Brodeur stopping the puck.  They don't score a lot, but don't need to.  The Lightning are the opposite, a team that had relied on great offensive play, as their D has been lackluster.  Yet in the 4 games these two teams have played this season, the Lightning have won 3 of 4.

 

Both teams are good at avoiding penalties, so it will likely come down to the 5 on 5 game.  The key for Tampa is if they can get consistent goalie play from either Holmqvist or Denis.  Against Brodeur, they aren't going to be able to score nearly as much as usual.  However, the Devils aren't the hardest offense to stop.  I think it will be a very close series, but in the end, I think the defense pays off for the Devils to barely take the series.


My Pick: Devils in 7 games
FanIQ says: Devils in 5/6 (38%)


VS
(3) Atlanta Thrashers vs (6) New York Rangers

Despite Atlanta winning their division and a higher seed, the Rangers have a much better goals scored/allowed ratio.  Atlanta had 1 more goal than allowed, the had 26.   Both teams offensives had similar successes, but the Rangers defense was much better, thanks in big part to Henrik Lundqvist.  Atlanta went 3-1 in the season series between the two, but the Rangers took them to OT in two of those wins.

Having a hot goaltender is always a key.  Lundqvist has been great all year, and Lehtonien has shown flashes.  The question is, can Lehtonien get in done in the playoffs?  I think both goalies play extremely well in this series.  I think it comes down to special teams in this series.  Both end up in the box about the same amount, but the Thrashers have been struggling majorly on powerplays and at killing penalties.   I think that this problem for the Thrashers does them in.

My pick: Rangers in 6 games.
FanIQ Says: Rangers in 6 (33%)

VS

 (4) Ottawa Senators vs (5) Pittsburgh Penguins


This definitely looks to be the best matchup in the first round from the East.  Ottawa has been forgotten by many because they were in the same division as the flashy Sabres.  However, the Senators have the NHL's best goals scored/allowed ratio and the 2nd most goals scored only behind the Sabres.  The Penguins have a not too shabby, winning their games with lots of goals and the best powerplay unit of the East's playoff teams.  In the season series, Pittsburgh won 3 of 4, but two of those wins ended in shootouts.  In the playoffs, there is no shootouts.


The Senators may be the closest to a complete team in the East however, as they combine the ability to score a lot with a good defense.  No doubt this series should have a good amount of goals, with the Pens being an offensive team.  Pittsburgh has been good at drawing penalties, but they also take a good share.  In the end, the Penguins have a lot of guys who lack playoff experience.  Crosby, Malkin, and Fluery all are heading into their first playoff games.  That will play in the favor of the Senators, who I ultimately see taking this series.


My Pick: Senators in 6
FanIQ Says: Senators in 7 (33%)


Here are the schedules for the East.  (All times Eastern)
*If game is needed

GAME Buffalo vs NY Islanders New Jersey vs Tampa Bay Atlanta vs NY Rangers Ottawa vs Pittsburgh
1 Thur Apr 12,    8 PM, TSN Thur Apr 12, 7:30 PM, RDS Thur Apr 12, 7 PM, TSN Wed Apr 117 PM Vs./CBC
2 Sat Apr 14, 7:30 PM, Vs. Sat Apr 14,    7 PM Sat Apr 14,   3 PM, NBC Sat Apr 14,        3 PM, NBC
3 Mon Apr 16, 7:30 PM, Vs. Mon Apr 16, 7 PM Tues Apr 17, 7 PM, TSN Sun Apr 15,       6 PM, Vs.
4 Wed Apr 18, 7:30 PM, Vs. Wed Apr 18, 7 PM Wed Apr 18, 7 PM, TSN Tues Apr 17,     7 PM, Vs./CBC
*5 Fri Apr 20,        7 PM, Vs. Fri Apr 20,7 PM Fri Apr 20,   12 PM, TSN Thur Apr 19,      7 PM, Vs/CBC
*6 Sun Apr 22,     7 PM, Vs. Sun Apr 22,   12 PM, CBC Sun Apr 22, 1 PM, NBC Sun Apr 22,        1 PM, NBC
*7 Tues Apr 24, 12 PM, TSN Tues Apr 24, 12 PM, CBC Mon Apr 23,  7 PM, Vs. Tues Apr 24,     7 PM, Vs./CBC

Later today will be the Western Conference previews.   Enjoy the first round everyone!  Feel free to leave your pick in the comments

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