This Sunday is the start of the Final Four before the start of the Chase.  It's off to the Irish Hills for stop #2 in Michigan.  The race for the final few spots in the Chase for the Cup is really heating up.  It's crunch time for some of these drivers. 

Meanwhile, it appears the top 6 in the standings are in cruise control.  From Busch down to Gordon, the 6 drivers look to be safely in the Chase.  From 7th on down, it's a mess.  Dale Earnhardt Jr. won here back in May when he crossed the line with literally nothing left in the tank.  Can he sweep Michigan?  How about defending winner Kurt Busch?  Can he get another victory and at least make it somewhat interesting before Richmond?  This race has seen it all, from domination to Roushketeer victory lane to Mayfield's '05 fuel gamble to DJ's 2002 spin and win.  This weekend is guaranteed to be exciting.

Speaking of the Michigan sweep, the last time it happened was 1995 when Bobby Labonte did it.  David Pearson swept the season series in 1976.  Cale Yarborough completed the sweep in 1983.  Bill Elliott also swept both races from the pole in 1985, and won both races again in 1986.  Can Kurt do it?  Well he certainly has a shot, but there's a lot of guys standing in his way, namely his old teammates at Roush-Fenway Racing.

Jack Roush knows how to put a car in victory lane at Michigan.  Mark Martin won here for Jack 4 times.  Kurt Busch won in the #97, Greg Biffle has won here before, as has Matt Kenseth and Carl Edwards.  In fact, a Roushketeer has gone to victory lane in at least one race per year at Michigan since 2002.  Needless to say it's been the House of Roush for many years.

What about first time winners?  Well David Ragan does drive for Jack Roush, and he has run well all season.  If anyone can pull off their first win this weekend, he's my pick by a long shot.  It was 17 years ago when Dale Jarrett, now in the booth for ESPN, beat Davey Allison in a photo finish for his first career victory in this very race.  Imagine how cool it would be for DJ to see another young man do the same thing, beating out one of today's top competitors.

What about all those Chasers who haven't won yet in 2008?  That would be Kevin Harvick, Greg Biffle, Jeff Gordon, Tony Stewart, Matt Kenseth.  Out of these 5, Harvick is the only driver who has never won at Michigan.  Could one of these fearsome five break out of their slump on Sunday?  Any of them can, but your best bet is Biffle or Kenseth.

What about those few guys on the outside looking in?  Well it's time to take charge if they're going to make the Chase.  Martin Truex Jr. finished 2nd to Kurt Busch in this race last year, and to make the Chase he'll need to keep getting top-5 finishes...a win or two wouldn't hurt either.  Vickers needs to rebound from a dismal few weeks if he's going to make the Chase as well.  Ryan Newman is looking for something to go right, and he needs a good run this weekend or it could be lights out for him.  Sadly, speaking of lights out, IMHO I think it's safe to say defending race winner Kurt Busch is done.  With 4 races before the Chase starts, it will take a miracle for him to make it into the top 12.  He's 359 points behind Matt Kenseth who sits 12th, and things don't look good for the Ble Deuce.

So who takes the cake in the Irish Hills this weekend?

My Pick:  Matt Kenseth - He's won here twice before, and he needs a win to put some distance between himself and those other drivers looking to get into the top-12.  What better place to get that first win than a track where you and your entire organization are perennial threats?  Look for Kenseth to get to the front no matter where he qualifies, and look for him to be fighting for the win at day's end.

Dark Horse: David Ragan - As I said, Roush drivers always run well at Michigan, and Ragan has been steadily improving as the year has progressed.  It was 1991 when DJ won that memorable battle with the late great Davey Allison.  He'll be watching from the booth, and it wouldn't surprise me in the least if DJ got to watch young David Ragan mirror what he did 17 years ago, this time beating out someone like Gordon, Stewart, or even a fellow Roush-Fenway teammate.

Don't miss the 3M Performance 400 this Sunday on ESPN.  This has been your official Q race preview...NOW LET'S GO RACING!

BK over and out