A look back at my preseason MLB predictions

Looking back at my preseason MLB predictions; How did I do?

10/12/13 in MLB   |   Eric_   |   7716 respect

Blog Photo - A look back at my preseason MLB predictionsBack in Spring Training, I wrote in retrospect disturbingly detailed previews of each division, complete with win predictions for each team. Since FanIQ is about expert accountability, I figured that since I was essentially conducted myself as an expert,* it's only fair that I go back and see how those predictions went. I knew going in that I had whiffed on some of the preseason darlings, specially the Blue Jays, Angels, and Nationals. Of course, so did everyone else. Was I better than everyone else though? Only one way to find out.

* Note: Please don't think of myself as an expert. I am not.

Below are my predictions for each division compared to what actually happen.

AL East
  Predicted Record Actual Record Difference
Tampa Bay 91-71 91-71* Exact
Toronto 89-73 74-88 -15
N.Y. Yankees 83-79 85-77 +2
Boston 78-84 97-65 +19
Baltimore 75-87 85-77 +10

* Record not counting the tiebreaker game.

We're not off to a great start here. Missing on the Blue Jays is one thing. No one had them that bad, but the Red Sox prediction? Yikes. After everything went wrong for Boston in 2012, everything essentially went right for 2013, so missing 97 wins doesn't bother me. Predicting them to go below .500? That's just inexcusably terrible. I also missed bad on the Orioles, but no one had a clue what they would do this season. On the plus side, I consider that Yankees prediction a hit given their unknowns going into the season, and obviously getting the Rays exact is a win.

AL Central
  Predicted Record Actual Record Difference
Detroit 92-70 93-69 +1
Chicago White Sox 82-80 63-99 -19
Cleveland 80-82 92-10 +12
Kansas City 76-86 86-76 +10
Minnesota 64-98 66-96 +2

I thought the Red Sox prediction was the worst, but that White Sox prediction? Yeesh. I was higher on the rotation than I should've been, and obviously didn't see the lineup being as terrible as it was. My write-up wasn't very optimistic, but I didn't listen to myself. I was far from all-in on the Indians and Royals, and it bit me. Detroit and Minnesota were essentially correct, but picking the Tigers to be good and the Twins to be bad was not exactly hard.

AL West
  Predicted Record Actual Record Difference
L.A. Angels 89-73 78-84 -11
Texas 87-75 91-71* +4
Oakland 86-76 96-66 +10
Seattle 74-88 71-91 -3
Houston 58-104 51-111 -7

* Not including the tiebreaker game.

Not surprisingly, the Angels were a big miss. Like everyone else, I underestimated the weakness of their pitching and how much Pujols and Hamilton would struggle. I didn't see Oakland winning 96 games, but I at least said they wouldn't fall back to the pack and would be in the race, even if I didn't pick them to actually make the playoffs. Texas was essentially a correct prediction. In the comments of this one, no one agreed that Seattle would only win 74. They ended up actually doing worse. That 58-104 prediction was actually one of the more charitable towards Houston. The Astros did not reward me for that faith.

Turn the page for the NL predictions. Were they any better?
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10/12/13   |   Pat   |   5232 respect

I would consider the Houston prediction accurate. I mean... 58 wins is about as low as you possibly could have predicted for any team. Sure, they ended up being even worse, but if you had predicted that level of atrocity, it would have just seemed like trolling.