Only four teams remain, who will be playing in the Super Bowl?  At FanIQ, we’ll break down each game to see who will make it to the big game.

(3) San Diego Chargers at (1) New England Patriots. Sunday, 3:00 PM ET on CBS from Gillette Stadium

Weather Forecast: 21 degrees, chance of snow.

The Patriots machine continues it’s seemingly unstoppable quest to hoist the Lombardi Trophy.  The pass blocking was great, and Brady set a record for completion percentage in a playoff game en route to beating the Jaguars.  The Chargers shocked everyone, beating the Colts in Indy despite injuries to Tomlinson, Gates, and Rivers.  Will the Chargers pull off the ultimate upset?  Or will it be business as usual for the Patriots.

Chargers Offense vs Patriots Defense

Tomlinson appears to be healthy, so that should be no problem.  However, against the Patriots, they need their passing game to be able to keep up, and Gates and Rivers are less than likely to be at full strength.  If Rivers is hurt, Volek is capable of being a solid manager.  They have very good blocking, and decent receiving targets.

While the Patriots defense looked strong against the run versus the Jaguars, they gave up a lot of completions to less than stellar receivers.  Their defense is at full health, and is one of the smartest in the league.

The key for the Chargers will be Tomlinson.  If they’re going to pass successfully, they first have to run successful.  If they can run successful, they can prevent a shootout, which with their passing game, they’ll likely not win.  Force the Patriots to play the run, and try to set the play action pass.  For the Patriots, shut down the running game.  Rivers/Volek will struggle if they are forced to pass 40+ times.  If the Pats offense does the usual, they’ll likely force the Chargers to give up on the run, and if that happens, the Pats are set.

Patriots Offense vs Chargers Defense

We know the Pats offense.  Brady is absurdly good.  The offensive line is absurdly good.  And the receivers are absurdly good.  Regardless of the Moss off the field issues, that shouldn’t affect this offense.

The Chargers have gotten an absurd amount of turnovers, that’s been their reason for success defensively.  In many Chargers games, they’ve seemed to have the tips always bounce perfectly for their turnovers.  They rely on pass rush from the outside linebackers, and get a lot of interceptions from the secondary.

The key for the Patriots offense is the offensive line.  Dominate up front, and they’ll have no issues.  They made a great Jags defense look foolish by dominating the line of scrimmage.  They pounded the ball, and forced them to guard the run, making passing the ball just too easy.  The key for the Chargers is getting turnovers.  They are few and far between for the Patriots, and it’s about the only way they end a drive without points.  Try to get the receivers and Maroney to fumble, and hit Brady.  He showed last week that if he isn’t touched, he’ll complete everything.  Hit him, and hit him often.

Special Teams

Both teams have young kickers who have yet to prove themselves in the playoffs, although Gostkowski hasn’t had many chances.  Kaeding has had some playoff issues.  Both teams have pretty good return teams, and the only real difference is the punter.  Scifres is great; Hanson is mediocre.

Key Match Ups

C Daniel Koppen vs. NT Jamal Williams:  The Chargers defense begins and ends with Williams.  When he is dominant, the defense follows suit.  Koppen and the guards Neal and Mankins will have to shut him down.

WR Chris Chambers vs. CB Asante Samuel:  With Gates still banged up, Chambers is the next best receiving option.  Unfortunately for him, Samuel is one of the best corners in the league.

The Verdict