In 2006, the Baltimore Ravens won 13 games. Last season, they lost 11.
The Cincinnati Bengals finished first in the North in 2005. They finished second in 2006. They finished third in 2007. Thankfully, perhaps, they cannot finish fifth in 2009, but they are entirely capable of finishing fourth in 2008.
Cleveland won 10 games yesteryear. I’m still trying to figure out what to make of that.
And to think the Steelers managed to pull the ultimate—I hate Jekyll and Hyde references—Jekyll and Hyde from ’05 to ’06 to ’07: win the Super Bowl, miss the playoffs, and (voila!) win the division.
Either the AFC North is very enigmatic or I am very high.
I haven’t been in a plane since last week, so we’ll go with the enigma bit. Onto the picks (in ascending order of mediocre records).
4. Baltimore (predicted finish: 5-11)
For the sake of brevity, I could say “Troy Smith is slated to start” (UPDATE: Looks like it'll be rookie Joe Flacco for at least Week 1) and call it an argument, but there are other reasons why this team doesn’t project to be a factor into January. For one, you could make a case that 44 year-old Don Beebe would be the number one wide receiver on the depth chart. A refurbished JUGS Football Passing Machine airing it out to various Fatheads placed forty yards downfield would provide the Ravens offense with a better deep ball threat. Willis McGahee is a fine running back, but Baltimore’s aerial game makes a compelling case for why eight in the box should be the opposition’s base defensive set.
Place that with what could be a crippling chronic injury to one of the NFL’s finest in Ed Reed and brutal out of division dates with the AFC South and NFC East (shared by all AFC North teams), and the Ravens would do well to win just seven games. Even sans Reed, Ray Lewis’s defense has too much pride to allow his side’s record to regress further from last year’s 5-11.
T-2: Cleveland (8-8)
I’m not drinking the Kool-Aid. Call me stubborn, but one nice year preceded by campaigns of 4-12, 6-10, 4-12, and 5-11 doesn’t exactly sell me on the notion that the Browns are on some unwavering trajectory to the postseason. To Romeo Crennel’s credit, he has successfully weathered what appeared to be a stagnant storm and has turned the Browns into a contender. But if there is one league in which an up-and-comer is liable to take one step forward and two steps back from one year to the next, it’s the NFL. However, given Cleveland’s wildly successful 2007 relative to previous seasons, I’ll say Cleveland has taken two steps forward and stands to take one back in 2008.
Derek Anderson was indeed a Pro Bowl quarterback last year—with a QB rating of 82.5. 82.5 was the 17th best in football, in the company of Sage Rosenfels, Chad Pennington, and Jon Kitna. Once again, I don’t see Anderson on some trajectory toward 30 TD and 15 INT while completing over 60% of his passes. Maybe he will accomplish just that in ’08—adding Donté Stallworth to the receiving corps doesn’t hurt things—I’m simply betting that he doesn’t. Jamal Lewis had a nice renaissance of sorts last year, but Jerome Harrison and Jason Wright don’t exactly inspire fear in the opposition as change of pace backs. The additions of Shaun Rogers and Corey Williams upgrade the defense, but not enough to warrant consecutive ten win seasons. Cleveland needs an extra year of seasoning.
T-2: Cincinnati (4-12, I mean 12-4, I mean 8-8)
Lord knows where these Bengals end up. There’s nothing to be said about this team that hasn’t been said, I dunno, 58,000 times. Their locker room is marred by tumult. Their coaching staff is horrendous. Their defense has been so completely worthless, it’s hard to hold Palmer, 85, and Housemazilli (championship!) to the fire for Cincy’s struggles. I mean, how much more laughable does it get than resigning Chris Henry and releasing Rudi Johnson in the same off-season?
What truly cracks me up about this team is that Marvin Lewis has consistently found a way to keep The Jungle optimistic enough to prevent a full-on rebellion. That’s the kind of vibe that doesn’t wash easily, thus why I fully expect this team to do what it does best: position themselves somewhere between “On the Verge of Good” and “Terrible”. This is a franchise in dire need of a fresh start.
1: Pittsburgh (10-6)
There’s nary a more status quo pick to be found than tabbing the Steelers to be AFC North champs. But in the interests of full disclosure, Ben Roethlisberger has grown on me dramatically. After 2006, my bitterness towards Pittsburgh for knocking Indy out of the postseason the previous year had been fully satisfied, not only because the Steelers missed the playoffs, but because “Worthlessberger” (as I and many others affectionately referred to him at the time) had proved my opinion that he was vastly overrated, reflected by his 18 TD against 23 INT for the year. And much to my surprise, he stopped his downward spiral before it even began by playing outstanding football in 2007. I admit it: he’s one of the NFL’s best.
Pittsburgh’s passing game is very good, their running back corps is solid, their defense is stout, and Mike Tomlin is going to be NFL Coach of the Year someday. The loss of guard Alan Faneca will certainly hurt, but I can’t imagine the offensive line being any worse than it was last year (and keep in mind Fast Willie was leading the league in rushing at the time of his late-season injury). This team is good enough to handle their murderous schedule.
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