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About the Author - 100%InjuryRate
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AFC West NFL Division Preview and Predictions: Raiders, Chiefs, Broncos, Chargers
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You Might As Well Just Chalk This Division Up For San Diego
9/3/08

The 2007 season wasn't exactly kind to the AFC West. The Raiders showed some early signs of life before they realized they were the Raiders. Meanwhile, the Chiefs dropped their last nine games and the Broncos were a lethargic 7-9. The one team from the division that made the playoffs, the Chargers, spent most of the season as a completely schizophrenic group that would sometimes look like the powerhouse AFC team it had been in the past and other weeks would look like a complete mess. Norv Turner was seemingly on the hot seat every other week. Not exactly an ideal situation for a division leading team.
The one consolation for the AFC West was that in the 2007 playoffs the Chargers went to Indy and turned Peyton Manning back into what he's spent most of his career as - a quarterback who can't win big games. They also turned in a rather heroic performance during the AFC title game against the Patriots, led by Philip Rivers who was playing on a torn ACL. Antonio Gates was also limited by an injury. But the real issue during that game was LT, who sat out the majority of the game with an injury and was questioned over and over again about his decision to pack it in while Rivers played on one leg.
Will we see another poor regular season from the AFC West as a collective group, only to have one of the teams make a surge in the playoffs? Let's get to the predictions.
4. Oakland Raiders (Predicted finish 4-12) - I'll make no bones about this. This team is a complete mess. But it's a fun mess. After last season, Al Davis supposedly sent Lane Kiffin a letter essentially asking him to cede authority to other members of the Raiders staff so that Kiffin would be a coach in name only. Kiffin reportedly refused to sign. So that's the background between the coach and owner. When you combine that with the fact that Davis wants to win immediately, and this team really needs to develop young players this year, I wouldn't be surprised to see some blowup between Kiffin and Davis before season's end.
But aside from that, this year we'll get to see JaMarcus Russell at the helm for the full year. He really is the total package if he's working hard and committed, and he seems to have had a good offseason by staying in shape. Only problem is he doesn't have much of anyone to throw to except Javon Walker. Ronald Curry, if healthy, is decent, but he's not exactly a stellar #2 receiver. Probably the best thing Russell has going for him as a young QB is that he has a very talented backfield to hand the ball off to. Justin Fargas had a dynamite second half for the Raiders last year which will also help take the burden off of Darren McFadden. The other good thing is that Fargas and McFadden provide two different styles of running to keep defenses off guard. Fargas is a straight north/south power back despite his small frame and McFadden is obviously a burner.
As for the Raiders defense, it's always been the one solid thing despite these past few horrendous seasons. The question has always been, can the offense match them in any way shape or form? Probably not this year, but a little bit down the line it's more than possible.
3. Kansas City Chiefs (5-11) - This is supposedly a rebuilding year for the Chiefs, but I'm not exactly sure what they're rebuilding towards. I'm not a fan of Brody Croyle at all (although I am of his wife) and while Dwayne Bowe had a nice rookie season last year, I keep wondering if Croyle will be able to get him the ball consistently this year. But probably the biggest problem for the Chiefs is this. If they're in a rebuilding year, and their two best players and headliners are veterans Tony Gonzalez and Larry Johnson, will both those guys get upset as the season heads into the toilet? Johnson was rumored to be pushing for a trade last year because of the team's struggles, and while Gonzalez has always been a consumate pro, I have to wonder how long he'll want to stick it out with this squad that isn't going anywhere fast.
At least we'll get to see how Glenn Dorsey does on the defensive side of the ball, but let's be honest, this defense blows. They didn't have a single pro bowl defensive player from 1999 to 2006. And their only pro bowler last year, Jared Allen, got traded to the Vikings. When you combine all of this with another year of Herm Edwards at the helm, who may be the worst clock manager in the game after Andy Reid, expect it to be another long season in KC. I guarantee you Edwards will cost the Chiefs at least one game, maybe two. Which is why instead of having them go 7-9, which they could do, I have them going 5-11.
2. Denver Broncos (10-6) - The Broncos disappointing 2007 season is best described using Jay Cutler as an example. Cutler has all the talent in the world, but looked sluggish and lethargic most of last season, just like his team. However, there was a reason for that. Cutler was diagnosed with Type 1 diabetes in the offseason making him one of only a handful of NFL players to ever play with the disease. Luckily for Cutler, in today's day and age, he's now able to get the necessary treatment where his diabetes shouldn't be a problem this season at all.
Hopefully, like Cutler, the rest of the team will be injected with new life. And even though Cutler and his primary target Brandon Marshall had some words with each other during the offseason, Marshall seems motivated this year. After all, he said he wants to catch 140 passes this year, and that's after he serves a one game suspension. Personally, I think we're much more likely to see Marshall get hit with another domestic violence charge than catch 140 passes, but I like his enthusiasm.
The big problem for the Broncos is on the defensive side of the ball. They were 30th against the run last year and haven't exactly made any moves that'll change that. They have a rough schedule to start out, but the second half of their season is fairly light.
1. San Diego Chargers (12-4) - On paper, this is the third best team in the AFC behind the Patriots and Colts. The only question is, will that happen on the football field as well? Norv Turner earned a reprieve last season by making it to the AFC Championship, something Marty Schottenheimer couldn't do, but if Turner continues to oversee a turbulent and inconsistent ship in San Diego, things could get ugly in a hurry. I hate to say it, but the biggest question about this team is Turner, plain and simple.
That's because San Diego is capable of being explosive on both sides of the ball. San Diego still has LT, who I consider the best all around back in football (he's much more versatile than Adrian Peterson) and having Chris Chambers at wide receiver for a full season will be huge for Phillip Rivers. Although I've never been sold on Rivers, and think San Diego never should have let Drew Brees go, the toughness and tenacity that Rivers showed in the AFC Championship clearly earned him tons of respect in the locker room and has made him a clear team leader. And while he may still look like he's shotputting his throws, Rivers is certainly capable of taking this team far.
On the defensive side, whether Shawne Merriman plays or not doesn't really matter. If he plays, he'll suck because of the injury, and if he's not playing, then he obviously won't be on the field. While he's a huge loss on the defensive side of the ball, San Diego has plenty of defensive weapons to at least keep the loss of Merriman from being a crippling blow.
Lastly, since LT is 29, and may not have more than a few good seasons left, I expect him to have a monster year. This could be San Diego's last shot to win a Super Bowl. They'd definitely be an underdog, but hey, we all know what the Giants did last year.

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