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9/3/08
AFC West NFL Division Preview and Predictions: Raiders, Chiefs, Broncos, Chargers
You Might As Well Just Chalk This Division Up For San Diego

The 2007 season wasn't exactly kind to the AFC West. The Raiders showed some early signs of life before they realized they were the Raiders. Meanwhile, the Chiefs dropped their last nine games and the Broncos were a lethargic 7-9. The one team from the division that made the playoffs, the Chargers, spent most of the season as a completely schizophrenic group that would sometimes look like the powerhouse AFC team it had been in the past and other weeks would look like a complete mess. Norv Turner was seemingly on the hot seat every other week. Not exactly an ideal situation for a division leading team.

The one consolation for the AFC West was that in the 2007 playoffs the Chargers went to Indy and turned Peyton Manning back into what he's spent most of his career as - a quarterback who can't win big games. They also turned in a rather heroic performance during the AFC title game against the Patriots, led by Philip Rivers who was playing on a torn ACL. Antonio Gates was also limited by an injury. But the real issue during that game was LT, who sat out the majority of the game with an injury and was questioned over and over again about his decision to pack it in while Rivers played on one leg.

Will we see another poor regular season from the AFC West as a collective group, only to have one of the teams make a surge in the playoffs? Let's get to the predictions.

4. Oakland Raiders  (Predicted finish 4-12)
- I'll make no bones about this. This team is a complete mess. But it's a fun mess. After last season, Al Davis supposedly sent Lane Kiffin a letter essentially asking him to cede authority to other members of the Raiders staff so that Kiffin would be a coach in name only. Kiffin reportedly refused to sign. So that's the background between the coach and owner. When you combine that with the fact that Davis wants to win immediately, and this team really needs to develop young players this year, I wouldn't be surprised to see some blowup between Kiffin and Davis before season's end.

But aside from that, this year we'll get to see JaMarcus Russell at the helm for the full year. He really is the total package if he's working hard and committed, and he seems to have had a good offseason by staying in shape. Only problem is he doesn't have much of anyone to throw to except Javon Walker. Ronald Curry, if healthy, is decent, but he's not exactly a stellar #2 receiver. Probably the best thing Russell has going for him as a young QB is that he has a very talented backfield to hand the ball off to. Justin Fargas had a dynamite second half for the Raiders last year which will also help take the burden off of Darren McFadden. The other good thing is that Fargas and McFadden provide two different styles of running to keep defenses off guard. Fargas is a straight north/south power back despite his small frame and McFadden is obviously a burner.

As for the Raiders defense, it's always been the one solid thing despite these past few horrendous seasons. The question has always been, can the offense match them in any way shape or form? Probably not this year, but a little bit down the line it's more than possible.

3. Kansas City Chiefs (5-11)
  - This is supposedly a rebuilding year for the Chiefs, but I'm not exactly sure what they're rebuilding towards. I'm not a fan of Brody Croyle at all (although I am of his wife) and while Dwayne Bowe had a nice rookie season last year, I keep wondering if Croyle will be able to get him the ball consistently this year. But probably the biggest problem for the Chiefs is this. If they're in a rebuilding year, and their two best players and headliners are veterans Tony Gonzalez and Larry Johnson, will both those guys get upset as the season heads into the toilet? Johnson was rumored to be pushing for a trade last year because of the team's struggles, and while Gonzalez has always been a consumate pro, I have to wonder how long he'll want to stick it out with this squad that isn't going anywhere fast.

At least we'll get to see how Glenn Dorsey does on the defensive side of the ball, but let's be honest, this defense blows. They didn't have a single pro bowl defensive player from 1999 to 2006. And their only pro bowler last year, Jared Allen, got traded to the Vikings. When you combine all of this with another year of Herm Edwards at the helm, who may be the worst clock manager in the game after Andy Reid, expect it to be another long season in KC. I guarantee you Edwards will cost the Chiefs at least one game, maybe two. Which is why instead of having them go 7-9, which they could do, I have them going 5-11.

2. Denver Broncos (10-6)
- The Broncos disappointing 2007 season is best described using Jay Cutler as an example. Cutler has all the talent in the world, but looked sluggish and lethargic most of last season, just like his team. However, there was a reason for that. Cutler was diagnosed with Type 1 diabetes in the offseason making him one of only a handful of NFL players to ever play with the disease. Luckily for Cutler, in today's day and age, he's now able to get the necessary treatment where his diabetes shouldn't be a problem this season at all.

Hopefully, like Cutler, the rest of the team will be injected with new life. And even though Cutler and his primary target Brandon Marshall had some words with each other during the  offseason, Marshall seems motivated this year. After all, he said he wants to catch 140 passes this year, and that's after he serves a one game suspension. Personally, I think we're much more likely to see Marshall get hit with another domestic violence charge than catch 140 passes, but I like his enthusiasm.

The big problem for the Broncos is on the defensive side of the ball. They were 30th against the run last year and haven't exactly made any moves that'll change that. They have a rough schedule to start out, but the second half of their season is fairly light.

1. San Diego Chargers (12-4)
- On paper, this is the third best team in the AFC behind the Patriots and Colts. The only question is, will that happen on the football field as well? Norv Turner earned a reprieve last season by making it to the AFC Championship, something Marty Schottenheimer couldn't do, but if Turner continues to oversee a turbulent and inconsistent ship in San Diego, things could get ugly in a hurry. I hate to say it, but the biggest question about this team is Turner, plain and simple.

That's because San Diego is capable of being explosive on both sides of the ball. San Diego still has LT, who I consider the best all around back in football (he's much more versatile than Adrian Peterson) and having Chris Chambers at wide receiver for a full season will be huge for Phillip Rivers. Although I've never been sold on Rivers, and think San Diego never should have let Drew Brees go, the toughness and tenacity that Rivers showed in the AFC Championship clearly earned him tons of respect in the locker room and has made him a clear team leader. And while he may still look like he's shotputting his throws, Rivers is certainly capable of taking this team far.

On the defensive side, whether Shawne Merriman plays or not doesn't really matter. If he plays, he'll suck because of the injury, and if he's not playing, then he obviously won't be on the field. While he's a huge loss on the defensive side of the ball, San Diego has plenty of defensive weapons to at least keep the loss of Merriman from being a crippling blow.

Lastly, since LT is 29, and may not have more than a few good seasons left, I expect him to have a monster year. This could be San Diego's last shot to win a Super Bowl. They'd definitely be an underdog, but hey, we all know what the Giants did last year.
19 comments
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9/3/08
1
I forsee only 3 wins for the lowly Chiefs.  I'd say the Raiders can win at least 6, Broncos I doubt go over .500.  Chargers win it easily again.

9/3/08
1
We're a little short in the WR area right now, but everything else is solid. Super Bowls are won with great defense and strong running games...Shawne Merriman should sit the season out because our LB depth is solid. The CRO is back and the Chargers secondary gives nightmares to opposing QBs...The schedule looks good too. INDY and the PATS have to come to Qualcomm in 2008, and 5 of our last 8 games are at Home as well. I'm hoping for 12-4, but Chargers fans won't rest until we can win a Super Bowl. 

9/3/08
2
WBKsports wrote:
We're a little short in the WR area right now, but everything else is solid. Super Bowls are won with great defense and strong running games...Shawne Merriman should sit the season out because our LB depth is solid. The CRO is back and the Chargers secondary gives nightmares to opposing QBs...The schedule looks good too. INDY and the PATS have to come to Qualcomm in 2008, and 5 of our last 8 games are at Home as well. I'm hoping for 12-4, but Chargers fans won't rest until we can win a Super Bowl. 
Well it looks like another restless season, then

9/3/08
1
They have to be the 4th at the worst in the AFC.  The only teams that look better are the Pats, Colts, and Jaguars. 

9/3/08
1
Pittsburgh has NO offensive line, that offense will struggle this year IMO. 

9/3/08
2
How is that an ESPN myth, ESPN would have to first pay attention to offensive lineman.  That line was AWFUL WITH one of the best lineman in football, and they didn't do ANYTHING to improve that line.  They'll give up over 50 sacks again, and I wouldn't be shocked at all if that leads to injury issues.

And remember, the Quarterback is only as good as the guys around him, and the line is the most important of those guys.  The Chargers have a very good line, the Steelers line is terrible.  The Steelers have a better D, and better skill positions, but that line, and a tougher schedule hurts the Steelers a lot.

9/3/08
2
Jamal Williams is the best nose tackle in football, and they have a strong secondary.  The Steelers do have a better defense, and the Chargers in NO WAY have the worst receivers in football.  Titans and Dolphins are FAR worse.

And I think Turner is highly over-rated, he's not even the best back in Atlanta.

9/3/08
0
Still bitter about having your QB called a "Big Baby" I see...1st of all, the best player on either side of the ball is not "Lights Out"...The Chargers best player is without a doubt LT and it could quite possibly be Antonio Gates. The Chargers have so much depth at LB, so Merriman's Injury will only hurt himself.  Stephen Cooper and Matt Wilhelm are 2 guys who can dominate the Mid-LB area. Shaun Phillips is just a machine at the OLB, and the hardest hitter on the Chargers D may just be LB Brandon Siler. The guy is 6' 2" 240lbs and has been playing on Special Teams cracking heads waiting for his opportunity.

How would this article have looked if it was written on XMAS EVE 2007 after the Chargers spanked the Broncos for the 2nd time with a 2-game composite score of 64-6? Do you really think Jay Cutler will have figured it out by Sept 14?

Bring Ryan Clady's  B.S. to "Light'sOut"...All day, All Day....

9/3/08
0
Whoever wrote this article is funny. Al Davis doesn't play on the field, but he can tell people to fumble, break legs, and even call his own team stupid. Not even close.
What makes or breaks a team, is what they do on the field.
Find it funny that this guy thinks the Raiders will only win 4 games this year, considering they're playing the 3rd easiest schedule. And of this year's opponents, the Raiders Split with the Broncos and Chiefs, then beat up on a punchless Dolphins team.
Go look up the schedule. Oakland's only real competition is going to be the Pats, the Chargers, maybe the Jets, but doubtful, and maybe Tampa, if they're not resting the starters.
Lastly, banking on Denver to win because they have Shanahan, is like saying the Raiders will lose because Al Davis is in charge. Shanahan was there last year too, and since 1999, they've been flat. Half the time, knocked out in the first round of the playoffs, other half, didn't make it at all. One time, they broke through against the Pats, only to lose the next round....no hope there.
Lastly, chargers. Same problem, running away from history. When Merriman goes out with his leg injury, be sure to thank Norv Turner for it.

9/3/08
1
Preseason predictions are just that...Predictions.  You said, "I'm not going to lock myself into a Denver AFC West Championship blah blah blah but it's a much likelier possibility than ESPN blah blah blah." That my friend is a PREDICTION.

If you think Week 2 will decide the Division, then I can't really help you with that one...I do know that Dre' Bly and Champ Bailey teamed up will be a scary sight for opposing QB's, and I do know that Brandon Marshall is a "Phenom" who I would love to have on the Chargers. But, there will be no "Meltdown" in SD. In Chargers land we already know how it feels to be "Heavily Favored" only to lose when it counts. 12-4 in 2004 didn't win the Super Bowl, and neither did 14-2 in 2006. Heck, last year we were 11-5 and just about snuck our way into the Super Bowl. Maybe it would be better if the Chargers went 10-6 because they play better as the "Underdogs"... I know it wasn't fun for you watching Clinton Hart body slam your boy Cutler on the Safety Blitz XMAS EVE...You guys will be back in Qualcomm around XMAS time again this season, so you better get that wish-list letter out to SANTA CLAUS as soon as possible...

9/3/08
1
Sorry But the Chargers win this division by Default...no contenders here...maybe Denver if LT is out!!!

9/3/08
2
RCAinSD wrote:
Whoever wrote this article is funny. Al Davis doesn't play on the field, but he can tell people to fumble, break legs, and even call his own team stupid. Not even close.
What makes or breaks a team, is what they do on the field.
Find it funny that this guy thinks the Raiders will only win 4 games this year, considering they're playing the 3rd easiest schedule. And of this year's opponents, the Raiders Split with the Broncos and Chiefs, then beat up on a punchless Dolphins team.
Go look up the schedule. Oakland's only real competition is going to be the Pats, the Chargers, maybe the Jets, but doubtful, and maybe Tampa, if they're not resting the starters.
Lastly, banking on Denver to win because they have Shanahan, is like saying the Raiders will lose because Al Davis is in charge. Shanahan was there last year too, and since 1999, they've been flat. Half the time, knocked out in the first round of the playoffs, other half, didn't make it at all. One time, they broke through against the Pats, only to lose the next round....no hope there.
Lastly, chargers. Same problem, running away from history. When Merriman goes out with his leg injury, be sure to thank Norv Turner for it.

Wake me up when the Raiders win more than 5 games.  The team is pathetic.  Let's just do what you suggested and check their schedule which is supposedly so "easy."  They play their divisional rivals 6 times obviously, and they're guaranteed to lose at least 4 of them.  They might split with the Broncos and Chiefs, but 2-4 is the best they'll do in their own division.  They don't have a rats chance in hell against the Bucs, Pats, and Saints outside of their division.  With Favre leading the Jets, they'll most likely lose that game too because while they're just as bad, having Favre gives them the ability to beat a team as crummy as they are, a la your Raiders.  They're just as bad as Baltimore, so that game is a toss up.  Miami falls into the same boat as Baltimore, as does Atlanta.  They'll lose to Carolina too along with Houston and Buffalo, who aren't incredible teams by any means, but are still much better than the Raiders.  That's 11 guaranteed losses, maybe 2 wins in the division, and 3 games that could go either way.  They're 5-11 at best.


 
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