Andre Smith's Draft Stock Is Falling, But Is He Worth The Risk?

Exactly How Far Will Andre Smith Fall? And At What Point Does He Become Worth The Risk?

3/12/09 in NFL   |   Pat   |   5232 respect

Andre Smith is still in the middle of what looks like it might be one of the biggest falls in the history of NFL Draft prospects. MJD over at Shutdown Corner compares it to "Wilford Brimley's frail and helpless body tumbling end-over-end off a cliff, picking up speed as it goes".

With Smith's status quickly moving from "possible #1 overall pick" to "possible undrafted free agent". Yeah, it's that bad.

His performance (or lack thereof) at the NFL Scouting Combine was awful, as he showed up looking overweight (even for an offensive lineman), and then abruptly left halfway through, after giving sorry excuses as to why he wasn't going to work out, even though it was clear that the most likely reason was that he was out of shape.

Then, at Alabama's recent Pro Day, he put in another embarrassing performance, which one scout called the "worst workout he ever saw".

Smith's work ethic is clearly at fault here, and unless he changes something dramatically, his potentially promising NFL career could be over before it even begins.

Now that he has fallen out of the top tier of the draft, the question becomes this: When does it become a good idea to draft Andre Smith?

Based on his performance at Alabama, he clearly has 1st round talent. In fact, no one has ever questioned that. However, the value of an NFL prospect is not in his current ability, but rather in his potential to improve, and what his abilities are GOING to be, as he develops into a pro player, and works on fixing the weaknesses that every college player has before moving on to the NFL.

Based on his performance as of late, Smith might already be as good as he will ever be. Since his work ethic has proved to be deficient, he may not improve at all. While that might be fine if he were going to play in the SEC for the rest of his life, it won't be enough to conquer the enormous learning curve in the NFL.

If a team decides to take the chance on Smith, they better talk to him extensively beforehand, and interview him as many times as it takes for them to understand what makes him tick. If a coach can find a way to motivate him and get all of the possible talent that he has to offer, then they might be able to get first round talent at a 3rd round price, or maybe even later. Otherwise, it will be a wasted pick, because it's clear that he's not going to do it on his own.

Andre Smith's Draft Freefall Continues [Shutdown Corner]
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3/16/09   |   eleven11

Smith may develop, but only if he matures enough to learn how to work like a pro.  He won't be the first kid who needed to learn how to work to become a pro and pro coaches spend every off-season teaching more kids the same.  Someone will draft him, either in the bottom of the first or top of the second round. 

3/12/09   |   derms33   |   17645 respect

No way he is a second Dayer...If he is...SOD

3/12/09   |   Raider_Dave   |   47 respect

joshsanchez wrote:
He won't make it out of the top 15

I agree.  Someone will take a calculated risk on him, and I think he is getting an overblown bad rap because of the draft microscope that he has never been subjected to in his talented college days.

3/12/09   |   Keeter   |   92 respect

$50 says he won't make it to the 2nd round...............any takers ??!!

3/12/09   |   joshsanchez   |   57 respect

He won't make it out of the top 15

3/12/09   |   WhoDat12   |   2252 respect

He will take a plummet much like LenDale White did when he became a fat overrated slothful loser.

3/12/09   |   drn0iswatr   |   731 respect

 the cowboys will take him only if he goes to jail and destroys team chemistry on several clubs beforehand.

3/12/09   |   DigitalSquire   |   1 respect

Is it worth all the time and effort you are going to have to put into this kid to get that talent out? Personally i don't think it is. He will need someone to handle everything for him, keep him motivated, etc ... dont waste a pick on a guy like that.

3/12/09   |   Raider_Dave   |   47 respect

After reading several articles last night that weren't knee-jerk reactions, it is obvious that there are two sides to every story.  Andre Smith has always been fat, it's only a factor know because pro scouts have never seen him without his shirt off (and running).  He was a dominant force in college as a fat guy, and probably will continue to be in the league.  Also, his 40-time, which absolutely has no bearing on an offensive lineman's game, was among the better for his position group.  Not bad for a fat guy.  Sure he has taken some bad advice in regards to the combine, and he is another victim of the draft hype machine.  He may slide a few spots, but the guy is hardly a pariah or a bad guy so suddenly just for doing as he always has, just under a lot stronger of a microscope this time around.