There is nothing fancy about the way the Panthers play football. They want to run the ball down their opponent’s throat and control the clock. Also, the running game sets up both the play action pass and the passing game. This formula allowed the Panthers to average 25.9 points per game for 7^th best in the NFL. This is the first year since 2003 that the Panthers have had a great rushing game. The Panthers have the 3^rd ranked rushing attack, and are ranked 1^st in the NFL with 30 rushing TDs, led by DeAngelo Williams, a RB who has amazing acceleration once he gets past the linebackers. Also, Williams had a breakout season with 1,515 yards, and led the NFL in rushing TDs with 18. Williams is complemented with rookie Jonathan Stewart who is more of a power RB, and has the ability to wear down a defense. Stewart put up great rookie numbers with 836 rushing yards, 10 rushing TDs, and averaged 4.6 yards per carry. Therefore, Stewart is used to pound a defense to wear them down, then use Williams to make cuts and use his acceleration to break a long run. This is probably the best rushing game the Panthers have ever had in their short history. 

 

When it comes to stats, there is nothing fancy about Jake Delhomme. He is a true leader, and knows how to motivate his team. In other words, he just knows how to wins games. His career playoff record is 5-2, including an appearance in the 2003 Super Bowl. This year he won 4 games after trailing in the 4^th quarter. That's not a fluke, in 2003 he won 7 games after trailing in the 4 quarter. Delhomme’s weakness is that is he a gunslinger, and has been known to turn the ball over in critical situations. However, Delhomme has worked on this weakness, and has only thrown 12 INTs, which is the 8^th best in the NFL. Furthermore, the Panthers have only turned the ball over a total of 19 times for 5^th best in the NFL. The latter stat was most likely helped by two main variables. First, Carolina has only allowed 20 sacks (6^th) all year, which takes a lot of pressure off of Delhomme and helps him from making a bad decision that could result in an INT. But, more importantly, Delhomme has star WR Steve Smith who is able to stretch the field. As a result, WR Muhsin Muhammad, a great possession receiver, is able to find an open space past the 1^st down marker. Furthermore, TEs, Jeff King and Dante Rosario, who have each caught 21 balls, are open across the middle. In other words, turnovers are low because Delhomme has a great O-line protecting him, he has more options to throw the ball to, including two tight ends (in past years, John Fox used the TE to block), and the RBs have fumbled the 5^th least amount of times in the NFL. That's why the Panthers average 25.9 points per game for 7^th best in the NFL.

Again, there is nothing tricky about the Panther’s defense. The D-line is led by All Pro DE Julius Pepper with 14.5 sacks. Charles Johnson, only in his 2^nd year, and Tyler Brayton, have rotated at DE to combine for 8 more sacks. The Panthers rely on the D-line to pressure the QB, and the D-line has combined for 78% of all the Panthers sacks. Not only does the D-line provide the primary pressure on the QB, but it's are able to block the opposing O-line, which allows their linebackers to roam free and make plays. With the pass rushing results of the d-line, it allows 7 players to drop back into pass coverage. The linebackers are led by emerging superstar John Beason, who led the team in tackles, and 3 INTs tied for 1^st on the team. Chris Gamble should be paid attention to in the secondary. This year the Panthers defense was not great when just looking at their overall yards allowed 18^th, rushing yards 20^th, and passing yards 16^th. However, it was a “Bend but don’t Break” philosophy, and the defense created 25 turnovers, ranked 13^th in the NFL.  In the end, the defense only allowed 20.6 points per game, ranked 12^th. 

 

Last week the Cardinals shocked most experts and fans by winning their 1^st home playoff game in over 50 years. How did this happen? They surprised the Falcons by running the ball with Edgerrin James 16 times for 73 yards, and 24 time in total. In the regular season the Cardinals passed close to 70% of the time. James’s performance was nothing special, but it forced more defenders in the box to strop the run. In other words, this strategy forced the Falcons to respect the rushing game, and gave the Cardinals receivers an advantage in the passing game. Also, it has been known for years that Kurt Warner is not affected by blitzes, and actually plays better when the defense does blitz because Warner is able to quickly read the blitz and throw the ball to the side of the blitz where an open receiver should be. There were quite a few times were the Falcons blitzed, and it ended up keeping drives alive. The main story of the game was that the Cardinals 19^th ranked overall defense, 16^th ranked rushing defense, and 22^nd ranked passing defense contained Atlanta’s offense throughout the game, except for 3 minutes towards the end of the 1^st half when the Falcons scored 14 points. 

Arizona’s 16^th ranked rushing defense held the 2^nd best rushing offense that averages 152.7 yards per game to 60 yards on 24 attempts, and Michael Turner was held to a season low 42 yards on 18 attempts. Furthermore, Arizona constantly pressured Matt Ryan the entire game forcing 2 interceptions. Also, Arizona forced a fumble on Atlanta’s 1^st possession in the 2^nd half that was run back 27 yards for a game changing TD (The Falcons never had the lead again). This was a game where stats coming into the game did not mean anything because the Cardinals played with a passion, a chip on their shoulder, and wanted the game more than the Falcons. The only downside in this game for Arizona is that Anquan Boldin left in the game with a hamstring injury, which could hurt them today as he might not play.

 

This week I like the Panthers to win 24-17 in a game that will be a bit closer than what most experts think. The Panthers have two great complimentary RBs in DeAngelo Williams and Jothan Stewart. Once they enter the red zone the Panthers score a TD 65.3% of the time, 2^nd best in the NFL, and have scored 93.9% (1^st in the NFL) of the time when they enter the red zone. This does not bode well for the Cardinals who allow a rushing TD 63.7% of the time in the red zone, ranked 27^th in the NFL. Someone might be thinking, well they just stopped the 2^nd best rushing offense. Yes, they did, but Michael Turner (1) faced around 8 people in the box, which included a FS or SS a lot of times because of the lack of threat of a WR stretching the field, and (2) Turner had trouble cutting against Arizona’s defense to get something going. Carolina’s running game will be successful against Arizona because they will have to commit their FS over the top to contain Steve Smith at all times, thus the majority of the time there will be one less person in the box when compared to the Atlanta game. This is because if Steve Smith is left with 1 on 1 coverage, then look for Delhomme to audible, and go deep to Smith. Furthermore, the Cardinal’s passing defense is ranked 22^nd in the NFL, even though the Panther’s passing offense is ranked 19^th it does not mean they are not efficient. They have just chosen to run the ball instead of passing the ball throughout the season. However, the Panthers can pass when needed, and look for Muhammad, a great possession receiver, to catch a few passes for key 1^st downs. Once the run is established, the Panthers will run play action pass, and exploit the Cardinals weak pass defense. It should be mentioned that the Cardinals defense are ranked 3^rd in the NFL in turnovers with 30, but 17 are from fumbles. Again, this does not favor the Cardinals because the Panthers have only fumbled 7 times, which is ranked 5^th in the NFL. 

Even though Arizona has the 2^nd best passing offense, this is not the type of defense they want to face. First, the Panthers rarely blitz, and rely on the D-line to get pressure on the QB, which they have been successful at all season, and they are responsible for 78% of the 37 team sacks, ranked 9^th in the NFL. As I mentioned before, Kurt Warner is at his best when teams blitz him, he is probably the best QB currently in the NFL at exploiting defenses when he is blitzed. On most plays the Panthers will drop 7 back into coverage, and will force Warner to beat them. It does not appear that Boldin will play because of his hamstring injury from the last game. That means Arizona WR Breaston (77 rec. for 1,006 yards) will have a chance to shine in the national spotlight. The Panthers have a decent pass defense ranked 16^th, but do not force many interceptions, and only have 12 on the year, ranked 21^st. I do not see Edgerrin James having the effect on this game like he did against Atlanta because Arizona “already played that card” and the Panthers will be ready for it in case Arizona tries to run. Therefore, it seems that Arizona will be one dimensional in this game, and that is not good in the NFL. That means the Panthers will not have to react to the offense, and can dictate the game. The Panthers should be able to limit the Cardinal’s passing attack just enough to win the game. Finally, Arizona is 31^st in the NFL when it comes to fumbling, and only 1 team has recovered more fumbles than the Panthers. As a result, I believe that the Panthers should recover at least 1 to 2 fumbles.