Horse trainers are typically as reticent as college coaches when asked about the talent and form of their charges, but not so Richard Dutrow. He can't say enough good things about his Kentucky Derby horse Big Brown. Things like, "I've not seen a horse with my own eyes who will beat him." And the even more incredible, "I'm going to be betting on him. I'm going to bet as much, or as much as my friends let me." And if past performance predicts the future (as horse racing claims) then believe him. In 2005 Dutrow bet $160,000 on his horse Saint Liam in the Breeders' Cup Classic and collected $384,000 in winnings. But is Big Brown really that good? Keep in mind that he's only raced three times (three wins) and no horse has won the Derby with so little work since Regret in 1915. And Big Brown starts from post 20; no horse has ever won when starting so far outside.
So to answer my question - No, Big Brown probably is not that good, he's not an automatic win. He is not, for instance, Georgetown playing Villanova in the 1985 NCAA finals. Or for that matter Houston playing NC State
in 1983. But Big Brown's fragility as the favorite makes Dutrow's comments all the more fun. And really, as Dutrow also said, "what, somebody asks me what I think I'm supposed to say I don't like my horse." Dutrow's swagger has me convinced and I'll be betting as much as I can, or as much as my friend (mine is a more circumscribed world) let's me too.
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