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10/19/09
BCS Watch: Florida, Alabama, LSU, Texas Control Their Own Destinies
After The First BCS Standings Of The Year, Several Teams Control Their Own Destinies
After the initial BCS standings, the SEC is enjoying their usual strong showing, with the top 2 teams in Florida and Alabama, and then LSU coming in at #9 as well. It's possible that all 3 of those teams could conceivable control their own destiny in the National Championship picture, depending on how a 1-loss SEC Champion would compare to an undefeated Iowa or Cincinnati team in the long run.

Obviously Florida and Alabama simply need to win out and they'll face each other in the SEC Championship, and the winner will end up in the title game. That much is pretty obvious. But if LSU beats Alabama, they could end up winning the SEC West, and earning a chance to avenge their only loss, with a rematch against Florida in the SEC title game. If they win that game, there's a great chance that those two big wins could springboard them up to at least the #2 spot in the BCS rankings, no matter what any other teams do.

Obviously, Texas is in the same boat. If they win out, it is pretty much guaranteed that they'll be in the top 2, since either Florida or Alabama will have to lose at some point.

Boise State, Cincinnati, Iowa and TCU remain, among undefeated teams. It would seem that if they all somehow finish undefeated, Cincinnati would finish highest, followed by Iowa, TCU and Boise State, respectively. Boise State will be punished by the fact that they have no ranked teams remaining on their schedule, or even teams that might be ranked at some point. TCU plays a better schedule, with games against BYU and Utah remaining. Iowa has the always tough Ohio State, and Cincy plays West Virginia and Pitt, both of whom could be considered quality wins.

In the Pac-10, either USC or Oregon (perhaps both) will end up with at least 2 losses, since they play each other. That would eliminate that team from contention. Pete Carroll is upset about USC's ranking so far, but it's hard to feel bad, when they're the top ranked 1-loss team in the country. Oklahoma State and Texas will also play essentially an elimination game as well. If Texas wins, Oklahoma State's chances, which are already ridiculously slim, will be completely gone. If Oklahoma State wins, it will likely bump Texas down to at least 8.

Miami still has an outside chance as well, but their schedule and their potential opponent in the ACC Title game (would be Boston College, if the season ended today) won't do them any favors. They'll need lots of teams ahead of them to lose, even though they have some great wins so far.

How do you see this season shaking out? And which teams do you think (outside of the top 3) have the best chance to sneak into the BCS Championship game?
8 comments
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10/19/09
1
An undefeated TCU and/or UC or BSU should have a play-in chance to face the #1 team; unless Texas and UF are both spotless then of course the point is moot.

10/19/09
1
The teams that are still undefeated like Iowa, TCU, BSU, Cincinnati.....they should not be considered for the title game at all. They don't play anyone worth mentioning and their respective conferences are a joke. Real top 5 is 1 Bama, 2 Florida, 3 Texas, 4 USC, 5 Oregon. Whoever finishes the best should compete for the BCS title game, and the rest should get the next best game Rose Bowl.

10/19/09
0
Bama has been the most complete team thus far this season, untill the last 2 weeks where the passign game has stumbled. but the good teams find ways to win, and when the passing game was aweful against South Carolina, the running game more than bailed them out.

right now I think Bama will man handle FLorida in the SEC Championship game.

and this coming from an Auburn fan to boot :P

10/21/09
0
The other thing messed up is that Miami and BC would play the title game when VT killed both of them. The title game should be VT vs. Miami.

10/21/09
0
ClippaChick wrote:
The teams that are still undefeated like Iowa, TCU, BSU, Cincinnati.....they should not be considered for the title game at all. They don't play anyone worth mentioning and their respective conferences are a joke. Real top 5 is 1 Bama, 2 Florida, 3 Texas, 4 USC, 5 Oregon. Whoever finishes the best should compete for the BCS title game, and the rest should get the next best game Rose Bowl.
How has Southern Cal fared the last two times they have played in Corvallis, Oregon?

10/21/09
1
Iowa has beaten Arkansas State and Northern Iowa by a grand TOTAL of four points. Congratulations on those impressive HOME wins, Hawkeyes. They did beat Arizona in Iowa City as well. That's decent. Discount all of their Little eleven wins. I like Kirk Ferentz but Iowa shouldn't even be in the top ten because of the weak conference they are in.
Meanwhile, Cincinnati has traveled to Oregon State (who has beat Southern Cal last year), to South Florida (who has beat a ACC team on the road) and won.
If Pitt wins out they will have beaten a Notre Dame team (not great, but not bad depending on how they do the rest of the way) and will set up a Big East "championship" game when they host Cincinnati on Dec. 5. If Cincinnati wins, they will have done enough to deserve a shot at the NC, barring an undefeated Texas-UF/Ala matchup.

 
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