It’s time for the baseball Hall of Fame debates to begin. From now until the results are announced, FanIQ will be taking a look at this year’s major candidates. Up next: Dale Murphy.
Dale Murphy was Mr. Brave for 15 for his 18 major league seasons. He also spent some time with the Phillies and
Pros For Induction
Murphy had a monster peak He won the MVP award in 1982 and 1983. The only other two-time MVP not in the Hall is Roger Maris (Thanks to EdSpeshel for that tidbit).
In addition to ’82 and ’83, Murphy was also great in 1980 and from 1984 to 1987. His OPS+ totals for those years in order: 135, 142, 149, 148, 152, 121, 157. All seven of those years, he was named to the All-Star team.
From 1980-1987, Murphy was all over the NL leaderboards. He finished top five in slugging five times (including twice at #1), OBP three times, OPS four times (one first and three seconds), homers seven times (twice leading), RBIs five times (twice leading), runs created six times (three times leading), extra base hits seven times (once leading), and times on base five teams (once leading).
With all the hubbub over steroids, Murphy has been one of the biggest spokesmen against it. This helps him given the emphasis on character. It also makes his numbers look better, and most don’t believe he took anything stronger than milk.
Cons Against Induction
Murphy’s career fell and it fell hard. He was done as a productive player at 33. The decline was swift and staggering. From 1988 on:
1988: .226/.313/.421, 24 HR, 77 RBI, 106 OPS+
1989: .228/.306/.361, 20 HR, 84 RBI, 89 OPS+
1990: .245/.318/.417, 24 HR, 83 RBI, 99 OPS+
1991: .252/.309/.415, 18 HR, 81 RBI, 103 OPS+
After that, it was two years of 44 generally pointless games. This decline took a toll in Murphy’s career numbers. He finished with only 2111 hits and 398 homers, the latter despite some years where it looked like he was hanging around to hit 400. His average dropped to .265, his career OBP to .346, and his career OPS+ to 121, all far cries from his previous numbers.
The Verdict
It’s close. Very close. Murphy had a monster peak in the 1980s, a seven year reign among the best in baseball. The two MVPs were well deserved, and he had two other years just as good if not better, and he did part of this reign came as a center fielder. However, when Murphy lost it, he lost it quick. It’s similar to Dave Parker and Jim Rice: good peaks, but a quick end to their productive years hurt their career numbers. Murphy has the best peak, but the biggest drop-off. The peak puts Murphy ahead of Parker and Rice in my book, but still just short of the Hall. I could be convinced the other way though.
Will He Get In?
Murphy’s vote totals peaked in 2000 at 23.2%. He’s since dropped to 9.2% last year. While I think he’s much closer to election than that, it’s obvious that Murphy will hang around the 10% area until his eligibility is up.
Now it’s your turn. Discuss Murphy’s candidacy in the comments, and be sure to vote in both his individual poll and Seth’s poll encompassing the entire ballot.
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