Beatin' The Odds

4/24/13 in   |   pigskinfan   |   36 respect

It's well known that I'm not a big fan of TOTALS plays. I'll jump when I've got a clear edge, but I'm not like some of those monkeys with bad combovers that will look at a TOTAL play before anything else. It all worked out last night, but I wonder if you know just how much of an anomaly last night's play was for me. I hate the idea of being on the UNDER. Basically, what the UNDER play represents is the thought that these world class athletes in the NBA are going to fail more than they succeed. That doesn't make any sense to me, but I saw a spot last night, I jumped on it and I cashed in. I guess that's all that matters.

 


You can tell that if I'm going to make a TOTALS play, I'm more likely to jump an OVER. In fact, I think last night's game might be only the 2nd UNDER play I've made over the last 5 or 6 years. Now, I should note at this point, this disdain for the UNDERS only applies to basketball. It's a much different animal when we're talking about baseball and football. You still won't find me making too many TOTALS plays in either of those, but I won't be more inclined to limit myself to the OVER if I'm ready to move. Just food for thought.

 


THE SHOW (4-2 yesterday and 6-5 so far for the week)

 


BUTTA (1-0 yesterday and 2-1 so far for the week)

Right now, only the Reds play that I "quick-posted" earlier is the only game I'm seeing right now, or at least am willing to commit to at this point. That doesn't mean I'm not tempted by others.

 


ON THE CUTTING ROOM FLOOR

1. Braves (Hudson -130) over ROCKIES (CHATWOOD) - The bloom is off the rose for the Rox early home success, and Hudson is 5-2 lifetime against them. However, this is a sweep situation for the Bravos, so I'll back off.

2. D-Backs (Kennedy +135) over GIANTS (BUMGARNER) - In the early going, it looks like Kennedy has regained his form of a couple years ago, and he's 6-2 lifetime against the G-Men with a 2.38 ERA.

3. PHILLIES (HALLADAY -135) over Pirates (Rodriguez) - There was concern for Doc's shoulder early on, but he's been strong his last couple of times out. I'm not ready to project him as the guy we're used to yet, though. If I were to make this play it would be against Rodriguez, who tossed a 1-hitter his last time out. I don't think he can sustain that kind of level.

4. Yankees (Pettitte +105) over RAYS (COBB) - This has become a nice little rivalry over the last few years, but Pettitte is 17-6 lifetime against the Rays. That's hard to pass on, but I will.

5. Rangers (Darvish -165) over ANGELS (ROTH) - If there is going to be a 2nd play in baseball for me today, this will probably be it. We're less than 20 games into the season, and until about 9am this morning, the Halos were "undecided" about tonight's starter. That shows things aren't going well for them. Also, Darvish is 4-1 lifetime against the Angels.

 


BROOMOLOGY (4-4 ATS & 3-5 SU so far for the week)

 


Road Favorite (0-1 ATS & SU so far for the week)

Blue Jays (-1 1/2) over ORIOLES

 


Home Dogs (no situations so far for the week)

ROCKIES (+1 1/2) vs. Braves

PADRES (+1 1/2) vs. Brewers

 


Home Favorite (1-0 ATS & SU so far for the week)

NATIONALS (-1 1/2) over Cardinals

 


THE DAILIES (6-9 ATS/3-12 SU/9-6 TOTALS yesterday and 19-23/19-22/24-18 so far for the week)

 1. ORIOLES (+1 1/2, U9) vs. Blue Jays

 2. A's (+1 1/2, O8 1/2) at RED SOX

 3. Indians (+1 1/2, U7 1/2) at WHITE SOX

 4. TIGERS (-1 1/2, O7 1/2) over Royals

 5. ASTROS (+1 1/2, U8) vs. Mariners *

 6. ANGELS (+1 1/2, U7 1/2) vs. Rangers

 7. Yankees (+1 1/2, U7) at RAYS

 8. REDS (-1 1/2, U7) over Cubs

 9. ROCKIES (+1 1/2, U9 1/2) vs. Braves *

10. Dodgers (+1 1/2, O6 1/2) at METS

11. PHILLIES (-1 1/2, U7) over Pirates

12. Brewers (-1 1/2, U7 1/2) over PADRES

13. GIANTS (-1 1/2, U7) over D-Backs

14. Cardinals (+1 1/2, U7) at NATIONALS

 


* - Both of these games come out as ties after stirring all the "ingredients" together.

 


THE NBA (1-2 ATS/2-1 SU/3-0 TOTALS last night and 1-8/6-3/5-4 so far for the week)

 


BUTTA (1-0 last night and 1-1 so far for the week)

I'm going to sit on my hands in The Association tonight. I'm thinking the Lakers might be worth a look, but it just feels too much like I'd be "drinking the kool-aid".

 


ALL THE REST

1. PACERS (-7 1/2, O187 1/2) 104, Hawks 96 - You know from my past that I just can't seem to get a good read on the Hawks. For tonight, it just feels like we should get a much better effort from them than we saw in Game 1 of this series.

2. THUNDER (-11 1/2, O213) 133, Rockets 98 - I don't like Coach McHale's strategy of taking his team home to Houston after Game 1. Being home is good, but there are also a lot of distractions that take away from the focus on basketball.

3. Lakers (+9, O188 1/2) 99, SPURS 99

 


Those Reds are something else. It's still a scoreless tie in the last of the 6th as we speak, but they're wasting another great performance by Latos. The guy's a beast, but his team just seems to refuse to score runs for him.

 


Have a great rest of your Hump Day. I'll see you tomorrow.

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