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Big Ten Tournament Thoughts
3/13/08

Iowa vs. Michigan:
I was at work so I didn't see this game and didn't really care that much about who won it.  I guess Michigan might have a 1 in 20 chance of taking out Wisconsin as opposed to the 1 in 25 or so chance Iowa probably had.

Illinois vs. Penn State:
I tuned into this game with about 10 minutes left and Illinois started to pull away, only for Penn State to go on a big run to look like they were going to pull things out.  I was pulling hard for Penn State this game because I felt they would be a much easier game for Purdue.  This game ended up having me yell, "You idiot" at the tv when Penn State somehow let a guard run wide open under the hoop with 3 seconds left.  Penn State would have been an easy 15+ point win for Purdue, but Illinois likely will be a tough game.  They outplayed Purdue in Mackey for 30 minutes before Purdue pulled away from them.  The game in Champaign was a game Purdue led throughout, but who knows how things would have ended up if E'Twaun Moore wasn't on fire in that second half.  Although Illinois did have their game of the year in actually hitting free throws that game.  I also don't like how Bruce Weber will know how to play against a Matt Painter Coached Team having been the assistant coach at Purdue when Painter played there and then was the head coach at SIU while Painter was the assistant there.

Minnesota vs. Northwestern:
This game is at half time at the point of me writing this and I'm wondering what is wrong with Minnesota.  I thought they could be one of those darkhorses in the BTT, but are getting blown out by 1-17 Northwestern.  I will admit that Northwestern has looked good in the first half a lot this year only to get worn down in the 2nd half and end up getting blown out.  I was really counting on Minnesota giving IU a tough game after this one, but they may not even have that chance.  It won't matter either if they play like they are right now.  I guess you could always make a case for Northwestern against IU since they were a last second blocked layup away from beating them a few weeks back.

Other Stuff:
UConn losing was somewhat of a shock.  They have been looking good lately and are a team I wouldn't want to run into for the NCAA Tournament.

I was surprised to see Syracuse play so bad yesterday.  I thought they would go on another Big East Tournament run to get in like a few years back.  They played like a team that won "TEN F*CKING GAMES!"

The attendance looks horrible right now in Indianapolis.  I guess a lot of it has to do with the quality of the teams at the bottom of the Big Ten.  (the top is decent though in 4 ranked teams) All the good teams play tomorrow.  I'm sure it will be a packed house tomorrow. 

This is as bad as I have seen the bottom of the Big Ten in a long time.  I guess that explains how Purdue can go 15-3 in the Big Ten and still have an RPI of 35 right now. 

Seriously, someone 4-2 against ranked teams this year is a lot better than a 35 RPI.  Certain ranked teams have played poorly against real competition and still get ranked high.  I guess it is teams such as Ball State that are dragging Purdue down too much.  The problem I have with the RPI is how a win can hurt you.  I bet if you subtracted certain wins away from Purdue, they would move up in the RPI.  I'm all for a win over a cupcake not moving you up.  It just shouldn't hurt you.

Maybe they could tweak the RPI to have some sort of diminishing penalty against really bad teams. (RPI 150+)  Some #200 RPI team won't hurt you nearly as much as some #320 RPI team even though both would almost definitely be blowouts for any team the RPI would actually matter for. (NCAA Tournament Teams)  I'm sure wins could still hurt you, but not to the same scale.  4-2 against teams currently ranked proves you belong ranked in the teens.  I'd be willing to bet that a few top 10 teams don't have winning records against ranked teams.

I'll be curious to see how the RPI will affect Purdue's seed.  Almost everyone that is making seed predictions has Purdue as a 4 or 5 seed.  The RPI would put Purdue as a 9 seed.  I feel they should be no lower than a 6 even if they lose tomorrow, but we'll see what the committee thinks.  I think they could and should be as high as a 3 seed if they were to win the Big Ten Tournament. 

I want either a 3 or a 6 seed.  I'd like to avoid a 4 or 5 seed to avoid a 1 seed in the sweet 16.  3 and 6 seeds are usually evenly matched anyway, so it wouldn't really be different from a 4-5 second round game and you get to avoid the 1 seed until the elite 8.

Read More: NCAABB

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