Everyone has had a day to digest the Johan Santana trade. Everyone knows what the Mets got, the best pitcher is baseball. The question is did the Twins make the best deal? To recap, the Twins received outfielder Carlos Gomez, and right handed pitchers Kevin Mulvey, Phil Humber, and Deolis Guerra. The reaction from the Mets and Twins' blogospheres:Amazin' Avenue: "In a vacuum, it's not a terrible deal for the Twins. Two high-risk, high-reward prospects, and two safer bets who offer lower upside. In some years that wouldn't be a bad haul, even for a pitcher like Santana. What the Twins received wasn't the crushing part--it's what they didn't. After weeks of teasing fans with names like Jacoby Ellsbury and Philip Hughes, Smith couldn't even land top prospect Fernando Martinez. Omar played it smart, persistent, and patient, everything he was criticized for not doing with Lastings Milledge."
Faith and Fear in Flushing: "Despite the press corps biting at his ankles and a traumatized fan base in open rebellion, Omar Minaya locked up a guy who could be the best pitcher in baseball for a stunningly reasonable price: Carlos Gomez, Kevin Mulvey, Deolis Guerra and Philip Humber. Fernando Martinez and Mike Pelfrey remain in our employ. I'd still like an explanation for Lastings Milledge's exile and the firehose of money blasted at Luis Castillo, but these now go in the "oh, by the way" file, to be brought up post-hosannas. Omar's got a lot of credit for being creative and for being persistent, but he pulled off this deal by showing patience that bordered on the superhuman."
It's obvious how this trade benefits the Mets. They grab the best pitcher in the game and get to plunk him in the inferior league and a pitchers' park to boot. Plus, they didn't give up their consensus best prospects: Martinez and Pelfrey. Obviously, the trade comes with a lot of risk still. They have to pay out a lot of money to keep Santana long-term, and the injury guillotine will always be there over their heads. Still, after last year's collapse, you can't fault Minaya for rolling the dice, especially when it might make the Mets favorites in the National League.
Now for the Twins...
Twinkie Town: "The Johan Santana trade is just the latest in a string of moves that all point to one thing: the Twins are a franchise building towards 2010. The short-term Mike Lamb and Adam Everett deals, the Santana trade, the Delmon Young trade, and the long-term "lock-em-up" deals for Justin Morneau and Michael Cuddyer all suggest that winning in 2008 matters less than winning in 2010.
It seems like it's always this way for the Twins, doesn't it?"
Aaron Gleeman: "In poker terms, Smith slow-played a big hand and ended up dragging in less than the maximum pot. It's hard to swallow the possibility that the Twins missed out on acquiring Hughes and Melky Cabrera or Ellsbury, Jed Lowrie, and Justin Masterson. Those were very good offers for Santana and without Martinez included the Mets' offer falls short of those standards. However, there's a difference between the Mets' offer not being the best one and the Mets' offer not being a decent one."
The consensus here is while the deal isn't terrible, the problem is the players the Twins didn't get, mainly the jewels of the Yankee and Red Sox system. Looking at the prospects:
Carlos Gomez is fast. Very fast. He's also great defensively. His bat his further behind though, having yet to eclipse a .747 for a full season in the minors. At 22 though, he's certainly not done developing.
Phil Humber has been on the Mets' top prospect list for a while now. Already 25, last year was a big step back. A 4.27 ERA in AAA and a disastrous cup of coffee has taken the bloom a bit off the rose. However, Humber is the most likely of the four to start 2008 with the big club.
Kevin Mulvey will turn 23 on Memorial Day. Last year was his first full year in the minors, at AA Binghamton, and it was a solid start, a 3.20 ERA with a good strikeout ratio. He probably needs some more seasoning, but Mulvey could hit the majors by next year, and becoming a #2 to #3 starter.
Finally, Deolis Guerra is the wild card of the deal. Just 18 years old, this his arm, or something inbetween could happen.
Overall, the deal isn't total crap, but it must hurt for Twins fans knowing what might have happened. The first three prospects should at least be contributors at the major league level. The key is if Guerra becomes a stud, which won't be known for a long time.
As for the rest of us, we're just glad the Yankees or Red Sox didn't get him.
What are your thoughts of the Johan Santana trade?
more
