As everyone at this year's college football prom starts hearing the words to Last Dance wander about in their brains, it's time to really start looking at the bowl picture and the future beyond.  The BCS national title game picture became a great deal clearer with today's action.  Additionally, the SEC tidied up their championship game and the Pac 10 gained a bit of contrast too.  Still, the Big East, ACC, and Big 10 are cloudier than ever.

But let's start at the top.  A mass of doomsday scenarios faded away as the ball sailed through the uprights in Iowa City.  What's left is what most people have been hoping at for many weeks: a matchup between the winners of the SEC and Big 12.  But there are still some other scenarios in play.

National Championship Game
Primary scenario: Big 12 winner (Texas Tech, Oklahoma, or Texas) vs. SEC winner (Alabama or Florida)

• Basically this is down to 4 teams, as Texas really finds themselves behind the 8 ball now.  Because Texas Tech owns the tiebreaker with Texas, their only chances of making the Big 12 championship game are:

                    1.  Finish in a 3 way tie with Texas Tech and Oklahoma (which requires Oklahoma to beat Texas Tech in 2 weeks and then
                         have no one else lose), then see the BCS fall their way.  Texas holds a 0.031 point (2 spot) advantage on Oklahoma                          right now.  But for Oklahoma to make it to a tie, they must beat Texas Tech and Oklahoma State.  Texas is behind OU
                         in both human polls, giving them a little wiggle room.  But Oklahoma has a lot more to gain in the computer polls.  If
                         Oklahoma gets through not having seen a real challenge since early October, I don't think it's possible Texas gets the
                         edge.  But it'll definitely make for some serious chatter around the nation if it does come down to the BCS with OU
                         passing by Texas (ala FSU over Miami in 2000).  Or...
                    2.  Have Texas Tech lose both of their remaining games.  It sounds rather unlikely, but if Oklahoma lays the pavement to
                         Tech in two weeks, you might see a vulnerable team exploited by a Baylor squad that is really just around the corner
                         from becoming a quality football team.

• This has to be the optimal matchup.  Many (myself included) are arguing that this is your college football playoff right here, and with the separation the Big 12 and SEC have put together this season, it definitely makes the case.  There is a fair chance 10 of the top 25 teams in the nation (5 top team 10 teams) come Sunday will be from these two conferences (if South Carolina moves up enough).  That versus only 11 top 25 teams (2 top 10 teams) from the four other major conferences combined as we entered this week .
• These 5 teams have combined losses totalling only 17 points.  Only Florida has lost to an unranked team, and only Florida has lost at home.  In the last month, these 5 teams are 10-2 in games where their opponents came in ranked.  In their last 4 games, Florida has dominated by a combined score of 205 - 50.  Oklahoma, 211 - 112.  Alabama, 115 - 64.  Texas Tech, 201 - 99.  And Texas, 162 - 115.  I'd say the chances of this championship game coming true are up in the 80% range!

Secondary Scenario Option List: [if one of the options aboves fails, these may fill the gap, with an attempt to order from top priority] Texas with no Big 12 South crown, Alabama after a loss to UF, USC, Penn State, Texas Tech with no a Big 12 South crown, ???

• Disaster can still occur.  What if Alabama loses the Iron Bowl, then beats Florida?  Or Florida loses to Florida State and then beats Alabama?  And last time I checked, there are two divisions that play in the Big 12 Championship game.  So here's your hazy list of fill-in scenarios. 
• Yes, the most likely possibility of alternatives definitely lies in Texas, and this may be their easiest route at this point.  There's two possibilites... 1 - if the SEC title winner loses before in the runup to that game, we should be looking at a Texas Tech - Texas or Oklahoma - Texas rematch national championship game.  I don't honestly think too many people would argue with that if it happens, right!?!  or 2 - we have an at-large Texas play Florida or Alabama.  Also not likely to generate a lot of complains, since Texas is one play from being undefeated.  Since Texas doesn't have great odds on winning the South, I'd give a roundabout Texas title visit maybe about a 15% shot.
• So what if it gets a little messier?  Texas still has to play Kansas next week.  Or what if Texas wins the south as all the other teams collapse?  Or the SEC title winner has trouble getting home and the Big 12 North rep wins in Kansas City?  Crazier things have happened?  Then it's a free-for-all... who would you choose... an Alabama team that loses a close one to Florida... USC... Penn State?  Sounds like the same issue we had between UF and Michigan two years ago!  But the depth of the SEC this year is much deeper than the Big 10 two years back.  And the Pac 10 and Big 10 continue to struggle.  We shall see, but I think Alabama would get the nod if it's a close SEC title game.  I believe the backup option is USC (though I think Penn State is a more consistent team, and their loss was a closer game), then Penn State.  Then again, if Oregon State wins out, USC won't even win the Pac 10.  Maybe that'll change things?  But whatever the specifics, the reality, though is that USC and Penn State still have an outside [maybe 5%] shot of making the national title game.
• And then on to nightmare scenario land.  And after last year, don't discount the possibility.  I can fairly say I think all college football purists hope the really crazy days are in the past, though.  Yet, what if the SEC winner carries a losing streak into Atlanta?  And the Big 12 north wins their title tilt?  And the Irish or Bruins club USC?  And Michigan State handles Penn State?  Then you're really scraping the bottom of the barrel!  The most likely result is that some Big 12 South or SEC team still emerges.  But what if?  What if the world flips upside down and suddenly all the Baylors and Mississippi States and Indianas and Stanfords and Citadels of the world start rising up?  Could an ACC or Big East team somehow possibily emerge?  Or Missouri come all the way back to Miami?  Or Ohio State coast on into town, even though they've shown they can't beat a big team whatsoever?
  Nah, I think then you look on to the undefeated teams.  Boise State and Utah.  They get the honor of being the teams leading the 0.01% chance crowd.  Anything is possible, but even if the smaller-conference teams win out, they'll need some serious help to convince people they could have the best team in the country.  Especially after how Tulsa played last week against Arkansas.

My prediction (though I doubt it's worth the silicon it's saved into): Florida vs. Texas (after the north wins a tight Big 12 Championship)

If the interest is high, I plan on breaking down the remaining BCS bowl slots, and then conference bowl tie-ins, in later articles.  Perhaps I'll even look into next year's horizon (it's never too early... especially in the 46 states not on the eastern Gulf or Red River).  And always look out for pro-BCS articles to stir things up (funny, now we hear about Pete Carroll wanting a playoff?  We must have missed his loud outcry all the past seasons).
But as we get down to the end, the picture is starting to come into focus, but there's still a lot to play for.  Who fills BCS bowl slots 9 and 10?  For that matter, how in the world do the muddled Big East and ACC work out?  And can the SEC possibly fill their 9 bowl tie-ins?
If you want to know, let your voices be heard!

But no matter what, hope you too are enjoying another excellent college football season!