The Chargers surprised a lot of people last week when they beat the Colts. Can the Chargers pull a major upset and beat the Steelers? Well, I will let you know what I think after I analyze how the two teams match up.  

If I was told I could choose any QB to start a team with, then I would take Phillip Rivers. Why Rivers over Brady and Peyton? Easy, both Brady and Peyton are on the backside of their pinnacle. This is only Rivers' 3rd year starting as a QB. Not only can he throw the ball down field, he can throw the ball with accuracy too. If he gets into trouble in the pocket, then he has enough agility to get out of the pocket and make a play. Finally, he has IT. He doesn’t just want to win, he wills his team to wins. Last year in the 2007 Playoffs, he tore his ACL against Indy in the Divisional Round, and still led his team to a win. In the AFC Championship game, Rivers played with a torn ACL, and was a few plays away from beating the 2007 New England Patriots. During the game, he didn’t just stand in the pocket, he ran around the field (granted with a torn ACL you can still run, just cant cut). In my opinion, Rivers is more important to San Diego than LT is.

The Steelers always have one of the best defenses. They are either #1 or 2 in total defense, rushing, passing, sacks, red zone TDs allowed. Dick Lebeau is the mastermind behind the Steelers defense. The Steelers run a zone blitz defense, which is different than the Ravens and Eagles blitzing defenses. In the most basic form of a zone blitz the idea is to have a LB line up behind/beside a DE. The QB will read a blitz, and expect both the LB and DE to blitz from the left side. However, the LB will blitz whereas the DE falls back into a zone pass coverage. Since the QB is under pressure, and reads blitz he might throw the ball to the left side where he was expecting an open receiver, but the ball might find its way to the open arms of the DE that dropped back into coverage resulting in a TD. Again, this a very very basic example of the zone blitz defense. SS Troy Polamalu has actually changed the philosophy of how the Steelers run the zone blitz because he is involved in just about every play.

There is nothing fancy about Big Ben as a QB. However, he knows and finds a way to win. In the end, that’s all matters. As a rookie he won 13 straight regular season games. In his 2nd year as a starting QB, he only won a Super Bowl. However, Big Ben has two main weaknesses. First, he tries to make plays when there is nothing resulting in too many interceptions. Second, Big Ben holds the ball too long, and takes a lot of sacks. Both of the latter stats are normally near the very bottom in the NFL.  

I believe the Chargers will win 13-10. I mentioned last week that this year’s Chargers are not your typical 8-8 team. Their defense is starting to play great at the right time. They are averaging roughly 3 turnovers over the last 5 games. Again, even if San Diego does not produce a sack, one goal should be to at least get enough pressure to disrupt the Steelers’s passing game. Expect to see San Diego blitz all day long against a QB that holds on to the ball too long, and has a bad habit of forcing bad throws that can led to INTs. Also, Big Ben suffered a pretty serious concussion for NFL standards (When was the last time you saw someone carried off on a stretcher for a concussion). Football is not for the faint of heart, and expect San Diego to try to hit Big Ben as much as they can to see where his mind is at. In the end, I think this could be Pittsburgh’s Achilles heel. I believe that Big Ben will continue to create turnovers, and will have at least two key interceptions. The Steelers have had trouble running the ball all year, which is unlike them. Their leading rusher Willie Parker has not played well at the end of the season, seeing as in the last six games Parker had only one 100 rushing game and 1 TD. The Steelers’s other RB, Mewelde Moore, has not had much production towards the end of the season. However, just like Willie Parker, Mewelde Moore is a threat coming out of the backfield and can catch the ball in the flat.  

The Chargers fate rests on Phillip Rivers’s shoulders. I do not expect Darren Sproles to have any where near the amount of success in running the ball like he did last week. Nor do I see the Chargers able to rush the ball at all during this game. Pittsburgh’s rushing defense is a lot better than the Colts', and is the best in the NFL. The Chargers O-line has to pick up the Steelers’s blitzes for Rivers to make plays, and look for another RB to stay in the backfield to pickup anyone that gets by the O-line. Rivers does not need to make a play every possession, but needs to make a play when the opportunity arises. The Steelers’s live off of QB’s trying to force a play that is not there. Look for Rivers to find Gates and Jackson down the field for a few receptions. I do think that Sproles will play a big part in the passing game with either screens or passes in the flat.  

Again, I like Phillip Rivers to make a game changing play that will lead the Chargers over the Steelers 13-10.