The New York Jets won 10 games once upon a time, too. In fact, it happened two years ago. No, this is not to imply that Cleveland stands to drop a 4-12 bomb in response to their 10 win campaign yesteryear, but it does highlight something that's lost upon pundits -- to win 10 games in any one year is an accomplishment, to but to do so in consecutive seasons opens up a whole 'nuther can of worms.
Since the turn of the millennium, 14 NFL franchises have achieved this feat. And if I stopped there, that tidbit blows a hole the size of Brazil through my thesis. But consider that 9 of these 14 teams are from the AFC, and for the purpose of relevancy, 3 of the 9 -- Indianapolis ('02), New England ('03), and San Diego ('06) -- have active streaks.
It's safe to say that the Bolts, Colts, and Pats are playoff shoo-ins for 2008.
The AFC boasted three other 10 game winners last year: Pittsburgh, Cleveland's division rival and a perpetually dangerous side; Jacksonville, a trendy pick to dethrone Indianapolis in the AFC South; and Tennessee, who came from obscurity and to obscurity they may very well return. But a spade's a spade -- a 10 game winner is a 10 game winner.
At the expense of Dave Matthews asking, I'll tell you where I'm going: where does Cleveland fit?
On the basis of scheduling alone, consider:
- Discounting themselves, the Browns face 2/3 of the AFC's 2007 10 win club: PIT (Wk 2, Wk 17), @ JAX (Wk 8), IND (Wk 13), and @ TEN (Wk 14). There's 5 of Cleveland's 16 games.
- The NFC has yet to be mentioned, but they are mentioned here -- Cleveland opens with Dallas (2007: 13-3), emerges from their bye week in style when they host the defending Super Bowl Champs (Wk 6), and follows up the next week with a visit to 2007 Wild Card winner Washington. This goes without mentioning a Week 15 trip to Philly, rounding out the Browns' tour of the NFC East. Games 6, 7, 8, and 9 of 16: check.
In '07, the Browns had the NFL's 24th overall pass defense.
Think of the running backs the Browns will face: Barber, Fast Willie/Mendenhall (twice), McGahee (twice), Portis, Jones-Drew/Taylor, Lynch, Addai, and Westbrook.
In '07, the Browns had the NFL's 27th overall rush defense.
The acquisitions of defensive linemen Shaun Rogers and Corey Williams in the off-season may be steps toward improvement, but how big can those steps be? Keep in mind that Cleveland did nothing -- absolutely nothing -- to improve a veritable who's who of mediocre in their secondary. If anything, their interior line will be better at the expense of their pass coverage, as Pro Bowl defensive back Leigh Bodden was surrendered in the Rogers trade. Summarily, Rogers and Williams upgrade the defensive line, but do they upgrade the defense?
They'd better, because as solid as the Browns offense appears to be, it cannot overcome a defense as putrid as theirs was last season. Derek Anderson may have been a Pro Bowl quarterback, but his QB rating of 82.5 -- putting him in the company of also-ran Sage Rosenfels (86.1) and newly-minted Dolphins signal caller Chad Pennington (84.8) -- was not worthy. To be certain, Anderson provided more than statistics for his team, as his solid performance doubtlessly helped a previously ineffective Jamal Lewis regain a measure of value. However, 2007 was a contract year for the aging running back. With signals pointing toward decline at 28 years-old, he was pressed to produce. He's been rewarded with a 3-year extension in the wake of his success, but can it be sustained? A short and stout 5'11", 245 lbs. screams one-dimensional, and Cleveland is at a lack of options for change of pace-types in the backfield.
A game-changer in front of the backfield, however, could be the speedy Donte Stallworth. His addition improves what was, in Anderson's defense, a rather average receiving corps from last year. Of the 29 passing TDs Cleveland recorded, 16 were hauled in by Braylon Edwards. The next highest total for a Brown wide receiver? 3, from Joe Jurevicius. Stallworth addressed a pressing need for this offense, but he does not single-handedly cancel out a woefully sub-par defense. That is unless he starts single-handedly hauling in anything and everything thrown his way. Then, Derek Anderson may throw for 40 TDs.
To be sure, this is a team on the rise. A team on the rise needs seasoning, however, and the Browns are no exception. Given their schedule and roster, they're simply not good enough to win 10 games or make the playoffs.
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