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9/10/08
College Football Lines Week 3: USC Trojans Now 10.5 Point Favorites
Too Many Questions In Columbus To Pick The Buckeyes
I'm not much of a betting man, but if I were, I'd choose to stay clear of college football odds for the first few weeks. Far too many unknowns that not even Vegas can be sure about. True freshman coming out of nowhere, misleading depth charts, etc. But now that we're heading into week three, I'll start to look at some game odds each week and share where I think there's some misleading lines.

Obviously the huge game of the week is worth mentioning. USC opened as 10.5 favorites, and while it immediately jumped to 11, it'll set it at this number. Not knowing how healthy Ohio State running back Beanie Wells will be on Saturday I'd stay clear of this game altogether but that's no fun. I'll get into more of a breakdown later today, but USC has far too many explosive options on offense, always shuffling in faster, fresher players to be stopped by the Buckeyes defense. Todd Boeckman is going to be as sharp as he's ever been, and his performance in a tough road environment at Penn State last year bodes well, but this is a little different. Boeckman was way off last week against an Ohio defense that won't draw a single similarity to USC. I see the Trojans going back and forth between a 7 and 14 points lead and scoring late to push the odds in their favor.

California (-13.5) at Maryland

I had to double and triple check this to make sure it was correct. The Terrapins just lost to Middle Tennessee State and in week one struggled to beat D-1AA Delaware. The Bears beat Michigan State 38-31 and then last week torched Washington State 66-3. If there's one factor that will keep this remotely close is the 12 ET kickoff, which is a 9 am start on Cal Bears time. It could throw them off, but not if they just let Jahvid Best do the running. I like Cal by at least three touchdowns, and you should too.

Georgia Tech (+7) at Virginia Tech

Paul Johnson scored a big win last week on the road at Boston College, so his Yellow Jackets will have some confidence going into Blacksburg. The Hokies are still struggling at the quarterback position with Sean Glennon and Tyrod Taylor. I don't know that I'm ready to call an outright win for Georgia Tech, but they'll move the football well enough to keep this a field goal game. Go with the Jackets and that touchdown.

Rice (+7) at Vanderbilt

The SAT Bowl would be far closer if it were held in the classroom. Vandy will be battling a letdown after the South Carolina victory, but this is a 14-point game at the very least.

Wisconsin (-1.5) at Fresno State

I like the three games above a lot, as in I'd attach that LOCK tag, but if I'm feeling a little risky and want some late Saturday night entertainment I'd happily go with Fresno State here plus the point and a half. That's going to be, shall we say, a fully hydrated crowd in Fresno that will provide Badgers QB Allan Everidge an environment he hasn't been in before. Wiscy struggled in their trip out West last year in UNLV, as well.

Any other odds you see that are wayyy off? Feel free to share them below.
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297 days ago
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Something is very scary about that Cal/Maryland line don't you think CF?  That jumped out at me when I browsed the odds too.  Vegas doesn't mess up all too often though, so for some reason I think they may keep it with the 2 touch spread.  Something isn't right there.

I can see both sides of the Kansas trip to South Florida but I see this game coming down to the end, with maybe the wrong team favored so I like Kansas +3.5.

Even though S. Carolina has a stout D & this is their biggest home game of the season, it's a revenge game for the Bulldogs & they are just better.  I think Georgia covers the 7.

I like Bowling Green to keep it closer than the spread.  Bowling Green +16.5
Buffalo will cover the 6.5
against Temple.
& this may be my first ever Baylor pick but Wazzu is so bad, I think the wrong team is favored.  I like Baylor +2 to win straight up.

I'm sure you'll see a Cougar flag at GameDay though.


& just for kicks, my homer pick.  The Sooners haven't been the best road team lately, but after another Pac 10 ref debacle, Washington was on the wrong end & will have trouble staying focused, with a coach out the door.  I think OU has enough talent to carry them to a 3 TD + win, I just hope the players & coaches aren't thinking that.
 
297 days ago
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I still don't get why we agreed to go out to Fresno.  It just doesn't pay for a big name school to travel to a mid major.  Fresno is legitimately good team, and if we lose it wouldn't really be much of an upset.  However, the media will treat like its the end of the world.  If we're going to say this teams are good, we must realize that losing to them isn't a horrible thing - it should be expected.
 
262 days ago
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Disciple wrote:
Something is very scary about that Cal/Maryland line don't you think CF?  That jumped out at me when I browsed the odds too.  Vegas doesn't mess up all too often though, so for some reason I think they may keep it with the 2 touch spread.  Something isn't right there.

I can see both sides of the Kansas trip to South Florida but I see this game coming down to the end, with maybe the wrong team favored so I like Kansas +3.5.

Even though S. Carolina has a stout D & this is their biggest home game of the season, it's a revenge game for the Bulldogs & they are just better.  I think Georgia covers the 7.

I like Bowling Green to keep it closer than the spread.  Bowling Green +16.5
Buffalo will cover the 6.5
against Temple.
& this may be my first ever Baylor pick but Wazzu is so bad, I think the wrong team is favored.  I like Baylor +2 to win straight up.

I'm sure you'll see a Cougar flag at GameDay though.


& just for kicks, my homer pick.  The Sooners haven't been the best road team lately, but after another Pac 10 ref debacle, Washington was on the wrong end & will have trouble staying focused, with a coach out the door.  I think OU has enough talent to carry them to a 3 TD + win, I just hope the players & coaches aren't thinking that.
Since nobody else did, I'm gonna give it up to myself on the Cal/Maryland game.  
 
 
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