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9/25/07
College Football Spread Week 5: Notre Dame Three Touchdown Underdogs
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Never been much of a gambler but that doesn't change the fact that one of the first things I do every Monday morning is look at the upcoming week odds. Always curious to where Vegas thinks they'll get the most play and where they're really trying to bait us fools.

Here are some games I think might be a bit off this week and where I'd lay my money.

SOUTH FLORIDA (+7) vs West Virginia
Touchdown favorites on the road against a defense that proven fast enough to contain Pat White and Co.? Combine that with what will be the first ever sellout at South Florida and I'll take my chances with the home team.

PURDUE (-21) vs Notre Dame
The last two years the Boilers have lost by a combined 35 points to the Irish, so don't expect Joe Tiler to call off the dogs the way Mark Dantonio did last weekend. It IS a high spread but this is one of the best Purdue teams since Drew Brees.

PENN STATE (-3) at Illinois
Illini are improved, but not this much.

CALIFORNIA (+5) at Oregon
In case you're curious, the O/U is 72. Great offenses, but it won't be that out of control. Autzen Stadium is a difficult place to play, but consider that the Ducks are so highly ranked because they beat a Michigan team that at the time was emotionally broken. OVER-RATED.
Here's the complete list of lines. Let me know which games you think might be a little askew.
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9/25/07
0

PENN STATE (-3) at Illinois
Illini are improved, but not this much.

Penn State doesn't score points on the road and the Illini spread open offense and good running game could prove problamatic.  I think any more points given to Penn St. and there wouldn't be any action (after the loss to the "horrible" Michigan Wolverines)


9/25/07
0

I hate to say this, but Michigan is a 17.5 favorite over Northwestern. Michigan has rebounded since the first two weeks with a big win over Penn State. Meanwhile Northwestern is awful again. They got pounded by OSU last week and lost to Duke before that.

I'll take Michigan to cover.

 


9/25/07
1
Surely, you can't mean it's Oregon that's overrated.  Cal has yet to have a complete game this year on both sides of the football, and struggled at home last week to put away an Arizona team, that IMO, is neck-and-neck with Stanford for the Pac-10 cellar this year.  The Ducks (at 48.5 ppg/avg!), however, have put away teams handily (Stanford game could be perceived as debatable though). With Heisman-boy DeSean Jackson getting blanketed (Lavelle Hawkins has better stats so far -- got to watch out for him), a banged-up Cal defense, and the pesky Autzen crowd, I'm confident the Ducks will come close to, if not cover, the spread.

9/25/07
1
Todd wrote:
Surely, you can't mean it's Oregon that's overrated.  Cal has yet to have a complete game this year on both sides of the football, and struggled at home last week to put away an Arizona team, that IMO, is neck-and-neck with Stanford for the Pac-10 cellar this year.  The Ducks (at 48.5 ppg/avg!), however, have put away teams handily (Stanford game could be perceived as debatable though). With Heisman-boy DeSean Jackson getting blanketed (Lavelle Hawkins has better stats so far -- got to watch out for him), a banged-up Cal defense, and the pesky Autzen crowd, I'm confident the Ducks will come close to, if not cover, the spread.

Have to agree with you in the fact that the line is correct.  I was anticipating Vegas giving Cal more respect but they are pretty smart.  Cal has injuries issues on defense and has honestly looked shaky at times in every game this year. 

 

 


9/25/07
1
Ohio State -23.5 at Minnesota. Minnesota is, as I've come to realize, simply awful. Most likely the worst team in the Big Ten. I think Ohio State is a lock to cover that spread.

9/25/07
1
"PURDUE (+21) vs Notre Dame
The last two years the Boilers have lost by a combined 35 points to the Irish, so don't expect Joe Tiler to call off the dogs the way Mark Dantonio did last weekend. It IS a high spread but this is one of the best Purdue teams since Drew Brees.
"

Purdue +21? I'll take that bet any day.

9/25/07
0

Wow, BYU is only giving 5.5?!? That should be easy money. I think Baylor can stay within 17 too.

Texas has played worse competition closer than 14.5 so that game I just don't touch because I know they have the talent to win by 30 but have been playing like they'll win by 3.


9/26/07
0
IlliniBob72 wrote:
Ohio State -23.5 at Minnesota. Minnesota is, as I've come to realize, simply awful. Most likely the worst team in the Big Ten. I think Ohio State is a lock to cover that spread.

probably but lines any higher than that don't get any action.


9/26/07
0
Pat wrote:
"PURDUE (+21) vs Notre Dame
The last two years the Boilers have lost by a combined 35 points to the Irish, so don't expect Joe Tiler to call off the dogs the way Mark Dantonio did last weekend. It IS a high spread but this is one of the best Purdue teams since Drew Brees.
"

Purdue +21? I'll take that bet any day.
I think that might be listed wrong.

9/26/07
0
WVU will outscore USF by atleast 21. I will and have made that bet.

9/26/07
2
wvuman wrote:
WVU will outscore USF by atleast 21. I will and have made that bet.
Rule #1 of gambling:

Never bet on your team against the spread. Straight up, if they're favored, that's fine. But usually, when you're betting on your own team against the spread, you've got too much homerism going on.

9/26/07
2
Pat wrote:
Rule #1 of gambling:

Never bet on your team against the spread. Straight up, if they're favored, that's fine. But usually, when you're betting on your own team against the spread, you've got too much homerism going on.
Especially when the spread is 7 and you're offering 21.

9/27/07
0

My money. Im goin to collect here soon.


 
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