The Colts are the hottest team entering the Playoffs with 9 straight wins. During the 9 game win streak, Peyton Manning has thrown 17 TDs and 2 INTs. The only problem with Indy's offense is their 31st ranked rushing offense. Therefore, the Colts will have to rely on this year's MVP, Peyton Manning, to lead one of the best passing offenses in the NFL.

Indy’s passing offense is very efficient, but is not as explosive as in years past. Proof of this is the Colts are only averaging 23.6 points per game, which is a considerable drop off from the last few years when the offense averaged 28.6 in 2007, 26.7 in 2006, 27.4 in 2005, and 32.6 in 2004. One of the other reasons the Colts have won 9 straight is because of their stellar 7th ranked scoring defense that only allows 18.6 points per game. The strength of their defense begins when the Colts either have a large lead or lead late in the game. This is because the defense is built to get pressure on the opposing QB with their both of their DE's who have combined to have 22 sacks (Robert Mathis 11.5 and Dwight Freeney 10.5). As a result, the defense is able to drop 7 into a zone coverage known as the Tampa 2, and have forced 26 turnovers this season, which is ranked 8th in the NFL.  

The Chargers, meanwhile, enter the playoffs with a 4 game win streak of their own, and did not clinch the AFC West until the last week of the season. San Diego is the only team in NFL history to start the season 4-8, and still make the playoffs. This year the Chargers have lost 5 games by 3 points or less, and 4 of the losses occurred with less than 30 seconds left in the game. Therefore, I would argue that this is not your typical 8-8 team. San Diego continued to score points this year, and averaged 27.1 points per game for 2nd best in the NFL.

Phillip Rivers, who had the best QB rating this year, leads the 7th ranked passing offense. The passing game was helped out by WR Vincent Jackson who had a breakout season with career highs in both receiving yards 1,098 (1st career 1,000 season) and 7 TDs. However, the Chargers could be without TE, Antonio Gates, who has a high ankle sprain. The Chargers are 9-0 the last two years when Gates catches at least 2 TDs. LaDainian Tomlinson should have a chance to rush against the Colts 24th ranked rushing defense even though he's listed as questionable for today. On the other side of the ball, the Chargers have a bend but don't break defense (25th overall, 11th rushing, and 31st passing), but their scoring defense was ranked 15th only allowing 21.7 points per game. Also, another reason San Diego was able to get away with allowing a lot of yards without allowing points was because they created 24 turnovers, ranked 9th in the NFL. It is quite clear that their defense misses Shawn Merriman because their sacks fell from 42 (5th ranked) to 28 (22nd ranked).
 
I believe the Chargers will beat Indy 23-17 because San Diego has proven to have great success when playing Indy over the last 4 years. Since 2005 they are 3-1, including a win last year in the playoffs at Indy. The Chargers loss came this year 23-20 as Vinatieri kicked a FG as time expired. San Diego provided the "Blue Print" for beating the Colts in 2005 when Indy started the season 13-0, and has used the same philosophy each time they have played since. The reason San Diego has been successful is because they blitz/pressure Peyton Manning the entire game. Just about each time Manning drops back to pass, he is either hit or hurried, and as a result it disrupts Manning's pinpoint accuracy.

Furthermore, San Diego mixes up their blitz schemes, and pressure comes from different places the entire game. Granted, San Diego's sack production has dropped off this season, but the Chargers just have to get enough pressure on Manning to make him uncomfortable in the pocket. If the Colts passing attack is taken out of rhythm, then they will have to rely on their 31st ranked rushing game. The Chargers should be able to establish a running game with LT if he plays (and with him listed as questionable we'll assume this is more gamesmanship than any real problem), who has played very well over the last six weeks, against Indy’s 24th ranked rushing defense. Assuming the Chargers are able to establish some form of a running game, then it will setup one of the better passing games in the NFL. As a result of the latter, the Chargers should be able to win this game 23-17.