The chill in the air has made its presence felt. The sun has decided to set earlier than in past days, and day trips to the beach have been replaced with rendezvous around tables of pitchers and wings. With the sadness that comes from the colder weather and women in sweatshirts and ponytails, comes the new national pastime that is NFL Football. (Girls in Jerseys can be just as hot as suicide Wings anyway!)
The College season kicked off a couple of weeks ago, the NFL this past weekend, and what we’ve learned is that no matter how much research we do and how many specialty shows we watch, half points and turnovers could ruin one’s weekend. Wagering on Sports and more specifically Football has become more popular than Honey-Hot’s with a side of Blue Cheese! Vegas is smart, they get it right 80% of the time, so it’s difficult for most to predict the outcome of games. But let’s face it; you’re going to put up a hell of a fight trying to snipe out that remaining 20%.
Let’s re-cap week 1 before we move on to this week’s games!
3 Things We Learned:
- The Tennessee Titans offense might be worse than the Jets and Jaguars offense. The Titans averaged just 3.7 yards per play! Titans starting Qb Jake Locker was an underwhelming 11/20 passing for only 125 yards! I threw for more yards at recess in the 5th grade than this guy did on Sunday. However despite such poor offensive production they still managed to beat the Steelers 19-9 (The Steelers losing their All-Pro center on their 1st Drive made it difficult for the Pitt Offense to produce with any sort of regularity) On the Defensive side the Titans return most of their starters from last year…A Defense that gave up 30 points per game! So we learned that the Titans won’t be able to compete within 15 points of a team that has both an above average offense and a top defense! They’ve got 1 win already, and they won’t have too many more.
- The New York Giants lost a game by only 5 points despite turning the ball over 6 times The Giants averaged 8.5yards per play, scored 31 points and LOST (also didn’t get within the key 4.5pt point spread) In addition, the G-men only had 56 offensive plays from scrimmage…6th lowest total in the league. This tells me 2 things. 1- The Giants offense (if they can refrain from turning the ball over at such a rapid pace) will be along the same plain as the Broncos, 49ers, and Lions as best in the league. 2- The DALLAS COWBOYS are not going to compete this year and they’re going to miss the playoffs for the 4th straight year. The Boys were lucky to get away with a win and even luckier Tony Romo wasn’t knocked out for the season. That may be coming though, as the O-Line for the Boys is in the worst shape it’s been in years. We should keep close eyes on teams playing against them going forward. Lines are usually inflated because the Cowboys are such a high volume publically bet team.
- The Chicago Bears under new head coach Marc Trestman and Off. Coordinator Aaron Kromer showed that no matter how many big names and how much of a trendy pick the Cincinnati Bengals have been, they can still be beaten. The Bengals will be right around 8-9 wins this year, which should be good enough for a playoff bid but we didn’t learn anything new about them yet….What we did learn is that The Bears are going to score points and may have their best offense in recent years. They have a better team than most thought and they’ll be able to stay in games no matter how many points their opponents score.
- Buffalo vs Carolina (BUF +3) Buffalo showed great resiliency to stay in the game versus the Patriots. They nearly even squeaked out a victory. The Bills with rookie quarterback E.j. Manuel look to have an offense that can play up and down football, they’re defense is greatly improved and they are HOME UNDERDOGS! Last season the Bills were only 4-4 at home but 2 of the losses were to the Patriots and Seahawks….The other 2 were to the Rams and Titans by a combined 4 Points! The Panthers more resemble a Ram or Titan team than a Patriots or Seahawks team….Give me Buffalo and the Points BUFFALO +3
- Houston vs Tennessee (HOU -8.5) We know that the Titans are inept. Watching the Texans play football in the 2nd half of Monday’s game was beautiful. At one point down 21, Matt Shaub went 11 for 12 passing; he looked as locked in as any Qb in the game. With weapons all over the field, on both sides of the ball, this game looks so good to me. Houston making their home opener should be a 12-15 point favorite against this Titan team. Give me the TEXANS -8.5
- Philadelphia vs San Diego (Phi -7.5) The Eagles will bring their no-huddle Chip Kelly offense to the city of brotherly love on Sunday to make their home debut against a demoralized Charger team. The Chargers lost a 21 point lead at halftime to the Texans….Looked un-inspired, sloppy, and in search of someone, anyone to make a play! It’s never fun for a west coast team to travel across the country on a short week, and to prepare for a team they have no idea how to prepare for. The Eagles will definitely be a problem for the Chargers. They looked sharp on offense, formidable on defense and like a mango chutney dipping sauce, proved a fresh taste to the N.F.L. The Eagles play fast. The Charger offense can’t sustain long drives, which means they’re defense will be on the field for a long time on Sunday. Fatigue and frustration will set it. Eagles will be 2-0 and should have no problem covering the touchdown spread. Give me the EAGELS -7.5
#DasKnows Tweet of the weekend
#Giants -4 in turnovers. Since 1990, teams -4 in turnover margin are 31-352-4 ATS (cover spread 8.1% of time)