Dawn Patrol

10/5/13 in NCAAF   |   pigskinfan   |   43 respect

It must be an October Saturday.  I can tell because I'm up at the crack of dawn and staring at a big schedule of college football.  There's a lot of work to do.  Let's jump right in.
 
 
 
COLLEGE FOOTBALL  (1-1 last night and 4-1 so far for the week)
 
 
BUTTA  (no play last night and 1-0 so far for the week)
1.  Texas Tech (-16) over KANSAS - I'm taking advantage of the weak here.  Kansas is just a terrible football team, and I can't for the life of me figure out why the number on this game has dropped a full point from it's opener.  I know that this is the Red Raiders 1st road game in a month, but they've had an extra week to get ready for a team that can't get out of it's own way on offense.  Kansas looks like they might have a little something going on defense, but when your opponents so far have been S. Dakota, Rice and La. Tech, who can really be sure of that?  It's a lot of points to lay, but looks well worth it to me with the clear mismatch in personnel.
2.  PARLAY:  N. Carolina St. (-300) over WAKE FOREST and N. Illinois (-310) over KENT ST. - I'm going to play a little game here to get a (-132) payout.  I would lay the (-7) hung on both teams, but NC State has been terrible ATS as a road favortie over the last 20 years (9-27).  Wake Forest doesn't have much going, but they will play hard of Coach Grobe.  For Northern, it looks like more of the same from them.  They rolled up Purdue last week, and I don't see where Kent St. is any better or worse than the Boilers.
3.  Cincinnati (-11 1/2) over S. FLORIDA - I was trying to figure out a way not to get on this game, but I just couldn't do it.  The Bearcats have had an extra week to prepare, and this isn't a soft spot or a look ahead situation for them either.  S. Florida is another bad football team that has extreme trouble putting points on the board while also not being a very good defensive team. 
 
 
ALL THE REST 
  1.  VIRGINIA TECH (-7) over N. Carolina - The Tar Heels were supposed to be a lot better than they have been so far.  The Hokies have home field and the better defense, so they get the lean for this game.
  2.  MARSHALL (-15) over Tex.-San Antonio - The Roadrunner got blown off their home field last week by Houston.  This shouldn't be much prettier for them going into a very hostile environment.
  3.  E. Carolina (-7 1/2) over MIDDLE TENNESSEE ST. - The Pirates are one of the big surprises of the season so far.  This team is actually playing a little defense this year.  I would be on this game, but it's Carolina's 2nd straight road game, and they're fresh off an emotional win over the "big boys" from Chapel Hill.
  4.  OKLAHOMA ST. (-13 1/2) over Kansas St. - The worst thing that could have possibly happened to K-State was that the Pokes got beat in Morgantown last week by an inferior team.  You know it's been a long, hard, intense week of practice in Stillwater, and those kids should come out breathing fire today.
  5.  Washington St. (-1 1/2) over CAL - The Bears aren't any good this season, but I'm not sure how good the Coogs are either.  From all the stats I'm seeing, State should roll here, but it is a conference road game.  I'll pass.
  6.  IDAHO (+27 1/2) vs. Fresno St. - A team that plays as little defense as Fresno should never be laying almost 4 TDs.
  7.  NAVY (-13 1/2) over Air Force
  8.  Arizona St. (-6 1/2) over NOTRE DAME - I've tried, but I just don't see how this year's Irish defense is going to stop the Sun Devils offense.
  9.  BOSTON COLLEGE (-11 1/2) over Army
10.  Ball St. (+4) at VIRGINIA - Here's your upset special of the week.
11.  Georgia St. (+54) at ALABAMA - This number is not a misprint, and it's down a point from where it opened!  YIKES!  But don't expect Coach Saban to have his team play to the number.
12.  New Mexico St. (+11) at NEW MEXICO
13.  FLORIDA ST. (-16) over Maryland - It's time for the Turtles to get a wake up call after a great start that has seen them edge into the national spotlight at #25 this week.
14.  MIAMI-FLA. (-5 1/2) over Georgia Tech - Speed kills, and it sure looked to me like the Jackets QB was a half count slow last week against that fast Virginia Tech defense.
15.  SYRACUSE (+14) vs. Clemson
16.  C. Florida (-9) over MEMPHIS
17.  Rutgers (-4) over SMU
18.  Louisville (-32) over TEMPLE
19.  AKRON (+3) vs. Ohio
20.  BOWLING GREEN (-26) over UMass
21.  BUFFALO (-13) over E. Michigan
22.  C. Michigan (-3) over MIAMI-O.
23.  TOLEDO (-23) over W. Michigan
24.  Penn St. (-3) over INDIANA
25.  IOWA (-1) over Michigan St. - Watch out for Coach Ferentz' team.  He's got them in a real good spot right now after a bit of a sluggish start.
26.  Minnesota (+18 1/2) at MICHIGAN
27.  Illinois (+8) at NEBRASKA
28.  Ohio St. (-6 1/2) over NORTHWESTERN - The Wildcats are a solid group with a very good coach, but they can't play with the Buckeyes.
29.  SO. MISS (-17) over Fla.-Int'l
30.  UTEP (+2) vs. La. Tech
31.  TULANE (+3) vs. N. Texas
32.  Rice (+3) at TULSA
33.  UAB (-3 1/2) over Fla.-Atlantic
34.  Texas St. (+11) at LOUISIANA
35.  S. Alabama (+3 1/2) at TROY ST.
36.  AUBURN (+3) vs. Mississippi - Don't be so sure that the Rebs getting throttled last week by 'Bama in their biggest game in years won't have a prolonged effect.
37.  FLORIDA (-12 1/2) over Arkansas
38.  MISSISSIPPI ST. (+9 1/2) vs. Lsu - The Tigers should win this game, but Starkville is a terrible place to have to try and win a football game.
39.  Kentucky (+21 1/2) at S. CAROLINA
40.  TENNESSEE (+10 1/2) vs. Georgia - A letdown spot for the Dawgs?  They won't lose this game, but it's tough pulling away on the road with a defense like Georgia's.
41.  Missouri (-1) over VANDERBILT - This number has swung to Mizzou after opening Vandy (-2), and it's justified.  The Commodores just don't have that same magic they had last season.
42.  BAYLOR (-28 1/2) over W. Virginia
43.  OKLAHOMA (-8) over Tcu - The Sooners look like they're back to basics:  Power football and stout defense.
44.  San Jose St. (-4) over HAWAII - Let's see how things go today.  This might be a good play late if BUTTA works out the way I think it will.
45.  Oregon (-40) over COLORADO
46.  STANFORD (-8) over Washington - This looks like one of the best games of the day.  Stanford is one of the best teams in the country, and they've got revenge from last year.
 
 
That's right.  Fifty games today, and I am ready.  Have a great day, be careful out there and I'll see you tomorrow.
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