Distant Early Warning

4/4/13 in   |   pigskinfan   |   44 respect

Up and at'em early this morning. Just back from Mass, I'm motivated by the fact that we have early games today, and I get to cover a little baseball. Here's the business:


THE SHOW
It's still too early in the season to be making any calls. You know how it works. My approach to baseball is a lot like that with basketball. I want things to be able to settle in a little bit before I start jumping in. That doesn't prevent BROOMOLOGY though. You remember BROOMOLOGY, don't you? It's the situation at the end of a 3- or 4-game series that has one team in danger of being swept.


I've found over the years that this situation can provide investment opportunities. In following it through this season, just as with prior seasons, the information provided are purely situationally based. Many other factors will go into whether or not any given game that falls into this category will be worth moving on.


You also might remember that in games that fit the BROOMOLOGY scenario, there are 4 possible investment situations on the run line. They are: Road Dog, Road Favorite, Home Dog and Home Favorite. It should be noted at this point that within each of these possibilities, there are some very stark differences in the outcomes of the games in question.


As a for instance and very quickly, teams that find themselves in the underdog role on the money line and in danger of being swept in a series have been successful in getting the money 56% of the time over the last 5 seasons. Teams in the favorite role, on the other hand, come in with only a 43% success rate.


That doesn't mean we immediately disregard the favorites and gravitate only to dogs. As stated earlier, there are many other factors that will have to be considered before I'd make a call on any of these games. What it all comes down to is where I'm going to get the best bang for my buck. There will be much more information to share with this as the season goes on, but for today, here's what we're looking at:


Road Dogs
1. Royals (+1 1/2) at WHITE SOX
2. Phillies (+1 1/2) at BRAVES
3. Padres (+1 1/2) at METS
4. Marlins (+1 1/2) at NATIONALS


Home Favorites
1. YANKEES (-1 1/2) over Red Sox
2. BLUE JAYS (-1 1/2) over Indians


Baseball is back! Get used to it.


THE NBA (7-5 last night and 18-10 so far for the week)


SU WINNERS (9-3 last night and 23-5 so far for the week)
Bulls, NUGGETS and THUNDER


TOTALS (6-6 last night and 14-14 so far for the week)
OVER - Bulls/NETS (186 1/2)
UNDERS - Mavs/NUGGETS (208) and Spurs/THUNDER (202 1/2)


BUTTA (1-0 last night and 3-0 so far for the week)
I'm not seeing anything here tonight that gives me an overwhelming edge.


ALL THE REST
1. Bulls (+5) at NETS - Other than the projection I have for this game, about the only thing I see where the Bulls have an edge here is the fact that it's the Nets 1st home game off a long swing through the west. Bulls 100, NETS 91
2. NUGGETS (-7) over Mavs - Could this be the end of the Mavs hopes for the postseason? The potential is there, but while the Nugs have been feeling it all season at home, I still am wary of how their style of play translates in a b2b situation. NUGGETS 107, Mavs 95
3. THUNDER (-7 1/2) over Spurs - A Thunder win pulls them to within a half game of the Spurs for the top spot in the west, but more importantly, it gets them even in the loss column. I think OkC wins this game, but there's no wiggle room between the posted number and my projection. If anything, I might look to the playoff atmosphere of this game to contribute to this game staying UNDER the TOTAL. THUNDER 99, Spurs 91


COLLEGE HOOPS (1-0 ATS/1-0 SU/0-1 TOTALS last night and 4-3/3-4/2-5 so far for the week)


The NIT (0-2/1-1/0-2 so far for the week)
Iowa (-1 1/2, U 142) 77, Baylor 64 - This is the championship game for the NIT, and it pits 2 very contrasting styles. If Iowa can dictate with the physical clutch and grab style of the Big Ten plus 2, they'll win this game. If Baylor can play at the fast pace of the Big XII minus 2, they should be okay. I don't care to make that kind of call.


There sure is a lot going on today for not having anything going, but sometimes, that's just the way things work out. Have a great Thursday, and if you're starting your weekend early tonight, be careful out there. I'll talk to you tomorrow.
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