At FanIQ, we'll be breaking down each playoff game from every angle...

(3) San Diego Chargers at (2) Indianapolis Colts.  Sunday, 1 PM ET on CBS from the RCA Dome.

Weather Forecast: Comfortable Dome temperatures.

San Diego’s offense last week was not that impressive, as they got shut down almost entirely in that game.  Luckily, the D shut the Titans down, but that’s not terribly hard.  However, shutting the Colts offense down like they did earlier this year was impressive, as they got 6 INT’s out of Peyton Manning.

However, in that game the Colts did shut down the Chargers offense.  In fact, both Charger TD’s in that game were on special teams.  And despite 6 INT’s, the Colts were within a field goal, and Adam Vinatieri shanked the game winner, his second shank of the day. 

Chargers Offense vs Colts Defense

LaDainian Tomlinson, and a pretty good offensive line obviously lead the Chargers offense.  With Lorenzo Neal getting healthy, that should help their running game.  However, their passing game took a huge hit with the injury to TE Antonio Gates, who is a game time decision.  Their offense doesn’t have many good weapons at WR, so an injured Gates is a huge blow.

The Colts defense was much improved this year, and was very under-rated.  Their secondary is strong, with Bob Sanders, who won defensive player of the year.  Jackson and Hayden have been solid corners, and Bethea is a good second safety.  Gary Brackett is a pretty good middle linebacker, but the defenses’ flaws are at the outside linebackers and the defensive line.  They have young inexperienced OLB’s, and Freeney’ injury has limited their pass rushing ability.  Mathis can bring pressure, but the others’ are average at best.

For the Chargers, the key as always is Tomlinson.  The Colts aren’t going to give them big plays through the air, and without Gates it will be even tougher.  If they want the passing game to have any chance, Tomlinson must have a big game.  If Tomlinson struggles, they won’t be able to score much.  The Colts obviously have to stop Tomlinson, because if the Chargers are one-dimensional, turnovers aren’t tough to get.

Colts Offense vs Chargers Defense

Peyton Manning had another solid Manning season despite many offensive line injuries and no Marvin Harrison for half of the year.  The starting line is expected to have all of its starters, and Harrison is likely to return.  Despite no Harrison, Wayne had a tremendous year, Clark is a good tight end, and Addai is a solid running back.

The Chargers defense got three INT’s off of Manning last time, and the D had a league high 48 takeaways.  (2^nd place, the Colts, had 37)  Their powerful 3-4 line is great at controlling the line of scrimmage, and that allows blitzes from Phillips and Merriman to be successful.  Their middle linebackers aren’t great, but are fairly good tacklers.  They have 3 very good cornerbacks who are strong in coverage, as well as two good safeties.

The Colts need the offensive line to be strong.  We know they’ll pass a lot, but they must run the ball and run it well.  If the defense has to worry about Addai on each play, that will force more 1 on 1 match ups on the receivers and allows the Colts passing game to be successful.  For the Chargers, the key is forcing the Colts to be one-dimensional.  If you get them passing on every play, they can bring multiple blitzes and schemes to confuse Manning and get the much-needed turnovers.

Special Teams

Chargers kicker Nate Kaeding is still hurt, and he missed one badly last week.  He hasn’t had a huge amount of playoff success either in his career.  They have a good punter, good coverage, and a kick returner who chewed up the Colts earlier in the year.  The Colts have terrible kick and punt coverage, and that’s a huge concern.  Vinatieri has made big kicks in the past, but he’s been very inconsistent this year, and lacks leg strength.  Hunter Smith is a solid punter.

Key Match Ups

C Jeff Saturday vs NT Jamal Williams:  It’s one of the premier centers against one of the premier nose tackles.  Jamal Williams is very powerful, and when he plays well, the defense usually follows suit.  It’s up to Saturday to contain and control him.

WR Chris Chambers vs CB Marlin Jackson:  With Gates hurt, Chambers is the next best option in the passing game.  He’ll need to make up for Gates and have a big game.  Marlin Jackson will be the man whose job will be to make Chambers obsolete.

The Verdict

The injury to Gates I believe will be the key.  Bob Sanders will play in the box a lot to try to control Tomlinson, and I think they’ll contain him enough to force them to pass, and the Colts will get turnovers.  Those turnovers will give the Colts good field position, and I think they’ll use the run to set up the pass fairly well.  Running the ball should keep the Colts from setting the Chargers up with turnovers.  I don’t see the Charger offense being able to do to much, plus I don’t see the Colts giving up two return TD’s either. Colts 27, Chargers 17.