Drive

10/19/13 in NCAAF   |   pigskinfan   |   40 respect

"Pity the man searching in the sky,
"Looking for a sign from above.
"And he never caught a glimpse of what he's worthy of.
"Don't sit and wait
"For the world on a plate.
"It's not a stroke of luck or chance.
"Just draw a bead on that sucker,
"And drive."
                                             Todd Rundgren/"Drive"
 
 
One half of the World Series puzzle is in place now after the Redbirds totally destroyed Kershaw and the Dodgers last night, but the big news for me was the win up north of the border with the Calgary Stampeders.  There's a ton more going on today, of course, so let's jump right in.
 
 
 
COLLEGE FOOTBALL  (1-0 last night and 2-1 so far for the week)
 
 
BUTTA  (no plays so far for the week)
1.  Florida (-3) over MISSOURI - It was one of the biggest wins in Mizzou football history last week down in Georgia, but it came at a great price.  The Tigers lost their QB, possibly for the remainder of the season.  I like the kid that's going to step in now.  He looks a bit like a Chase Daniel clone, but having to go against this Gator defense in his first collegiate start appears to be a bridge too far.
 
 
ALL THE REST 
  1.  Usc (+2 1/2) at NOTRE DAME - The Trojans look like a different team without ex-Coach Kiffin.  I don't like going against God, especially when Coach Kelly has an extra week to prepare, but all the numbers I've got favor USC.
  2.  Florida St. (-3 1/2) over CLEMSON - It's so hard to go into Death Valley and win a football game, and the home team has won the last 6 meetings in this series.  But I like the road team tonight because they're bringing the better defense with them.  That's not to say that points won't be scored in this one, but I like the 'Noles chances to get a stop or too when they really need it and tip the scales.
  3.  Syracuse (+7) at GEORGIA TECH - Tech is going through a rough patch right now.  I think they get back on track with a win today, but the 'Cuse is a feisty bunch.  I think a full TD is probably too much for the Yellowjackets to cover.
  4.  CINCINNATI (-14 1/2) over UConn - The Bearcats are suddenly alive again in the AAC after Louisville lost last night, and UConn isn't very good.
  5.  BUFFALO (-19 1/2) over UMass - Buffalo's light schedule continues, but I'm wondering if maybe the numbers are starting to get a little too high for them.
  6.  Ohio (-16 1/2) over E. MICHIGAN - We've seen this movie before with the Bobcats.  After getting upset last week, Ohio will get serious against a weak opponent this week.
  7.  Ball St. (-20) over W. MICHIGAN - Ball St. had a tough go of it last week, but they did win their game.  Western is struggling through a very difficult season.
  8.  E. CAROLINA (-23) over So. Miss - The Pirates should be able to dominate this game, but they have played a lot closer the last couple of weeks than they should have.  This will be their first home game in a month though, so I'll give Carolina the edge with a big number.
  9.  S. Carolina (-7) over TENNESSEE - In a weird scheduling anomaly, the Gamecocks are in the middle game of a 3-game conference road trip today.  I still like them a lot today, but the really big game for them in this stretch comes next week when they play Missouri.
10.  Oregon St. (-10) over CAL - A 2nd straight road game for the Beavs, but this Cal team really isn't good at all, and they especially struggle on defense.  I've got a lot of time to think about this one, but I just might make a move here after all is said and done.  Stay tuned.
11.  Rice (-17) over NEW MEXICO ST.
12.  HOUSTON (+9 1/2) vs. Byu
13.  Army (-1) over TEMPLE
14.  TOLEDO (-9) over Navy
15.  S. ALABAMA (-7) over Kent St.
16.  VIRGINIA (-3) over Duke
17.  Maryland (-5 1/2) over WAKE FOREST - The Terps get their starting QB back for this game, so fear the turtle.  I'm not sure I want to move on this one though.  Maryland will be without their long snapper and kicker today.
18.  MEMPHIS (-3 1/2) over Smu
19.  N. Illinois (-14 1/2) over C. MICHIGAN
20.  MIAMI-O. (+7) vs. Akron
21.  ILLINOIS (+14) vs. Wisconsin
22.  Indiana (+9) at MICHIGAN
23.  MICHIGAN ST. (-27 1/2) over Purdue
24.  Minnesota (+12 1/2) at NORTHWESTERN - I don't like this whole situation with Coach Kill.  I hate to say it, but his health issues are a big distraction, and he needs to go.  With that being said, Northwestern will be without it's starting QB and RB today, so the Gophers should be able to hang in there today.
25.  OHIO ST. (-18) over Iowa - All my models have Iowa getting in under the number here, but this is a huge step up in class for them today.
26.  N. Texas (-3 1/2) over LA. TECH
27.  Georgia St. (+16) at TEXAS ST.
28.  ALABAMA (-29) over Arkansas
29.  Lsu (-10) over MISSISSIPPI - A couple of weeks ago, this would be a dangerous game, but it looks like LSU might have found their defense.  This game will be a good test of that theory.
30.  TEXAS A&M (-13) over Auburn - Can't lay this kind of number into that A&M defense.
31.  Georgia (-6 1/2) over VANDERBILT - The Bulldogs still aren't out of the race for an SEC title game berth, and Vandy just doesn't have the magic this season.  I like Georgia to get back on track this week.
32.  BAYLOR (-33 1/2) over Iowa St.
33.  Oklahoma (-22) over KANSAS - The worst thing that happened to Kansas for this week is that Oklahoma lost to Texas last week.
34.  Tcu (+7) at OKLAHOMA ST.
35.  Texas Tech (-5 1/2) over W. VIRGINIA
36.  BOISE ST. (-24) over Nevada - The Wolfpack play zero defense.  I think they get overwhelmed on the blue turf tonight.
37.  Unlv (+25) at FRESNO ST. - UNLV is feisty on offense, and this is just way too many points for that Fresno defense to try to cover.
38.  Utah St. (-11 1/2) over NEW MEXICO - The weakness of the Aggies defense is their secondary, but that's something the Lobos can't exploit.
39.  WYOMING (-6) over Colorado St. - It's a tough call for a big border war type rivalry game, but Wyoming looks like the better team.
40.  ARIZONA (-4) over Utah
41.  Washington (+3) at ARIZONA ST. - I prefer a road team with a physical defense and a strong running game, but Pac12 road teams are really hard to play.
42.  OREGON (-39 1/2) over Washington St.
43.  STANFORD (-4 1/2) over Ucla - This is one of the big games of the day.  Stanford is stinging after a shocking loss last week at Utah, so they'll be motivated.  The Cardinal play a very disciplined style of game, and that's not something that UCLA has excelled at this season.  The Bruins spend a lot of time trying to make up for shooting themselves in the foot, and that should bite them this week.
 
 
I don't have a lot of irons in the fire today, I know, but as we have learned in the past, it's a quality over quantity thing.  Have a great day, be careful out there and I'll see you tomorrow for what looks right now like a very interesting NFL Sunday.
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