NFL, *Fantasy

Duckett to DC: Major Fantasy Implications

8/23/06 in NFL   |   TheDondino   |   respect

When was the last time you heard of a three team trade in the NFL?  I've never heard of one.  And this one has some major Fantasy implications as well.  I'll break each part down and give you my thoughts on how this will affect your Fantasy team.

Duckett to Washington

The Atlanta Falcons have been looking to trade Duckett for some time now and finally put together a deal to get it done.  Duckett lands in Washington where Clinton Portis owners should definitely take notice...maybe that shoulder is worse than most, including myself, originally thought.  Duckett's acquisition allows the Redskins to give Portis a little more time to fully recover from his injury.  While that will mean a healthier Portis for the long haul of the season, it doesn't help you out for the first few weeks...and Duckett will still be there to poach goal line attempts all season long like he has in Atlanta for many years.  For those of you who picked up Ladell Betts hoping that he'd see some meaningful playing time, time to switch gears and snap up Duckett if he's still available.  Once a top 5 running back, I see Clinton Portis now as a top 8-12 type back.  If you have a pick in the last part of the first round, take him because you can get another great back with your wrap-around pick in round 2.  If you're in a TD only league, drop him further.

In Atlanta, it's a different story for Warrick Dunn.  He's now the clear #1 guy...behind Mike Vick that is.  While Vick will still see a lot of rushing yards and touchdowns, Dunn's stock should be at an all-time high.  Jim Mora Jr. is still going to run the ball just as much as he did before (tops in the NFL) so Dunn should easily see a rise in his yardage and without the goal line sniper in the house anymore, his TD numbers should rise also.  Rookie Jerious Norwood who has had a great camp, is now the #2 guy but shouldn't impinge on Dunn's value too much this year.  Move Dunn up your charts to a solid #2 to weak #1 running back.  He'll probably go late 2nd to early 3rd round.  Keeper league owners should keep an eye on Jerious Norwood as he looks like he'll be a good one.

Lelie to Atlanta

Ashley Lelie has a ton of talent, but his fantasy stock took a nose-dive with this trade.  The Atlanta Falcons are just about the worst place to go to find a wide receiver for your fantasy team.  The Falcons have two good starters in Roddy White and Michael Jenkins and Lelie should slot into the 3rd receiver position here.  While that position can be golden in places like Indianapolis and Cincinnati, not in Atlanta.  Lelie wasn't being taken in most drafts anyhow, but if you were one of those who did, drop him now.  The two Falcon starters are probably still available in most leagues and do warrant some attention.  Roddy White could have a decent season, but as long as Mike Vick is the QB, it'll be run first in Atlanta.  Take Lelie off your draft boards unless you are in a very deep league.

In Denver, this won't mean a whole lot as Lelie had been in Mike Shanahan's doghouse for a while now.  What I do take from this is that Javon Walker is probably progressing as the team had hoped and should be fine for the season, allowing the Broncos to ship Lelie off for a third round pick.  Move Javon up on your draft boards.  If he's back to 100% health, he could be a dominant receiver once again.  He's being drafted as the 3rd receiver for most teams and should be an excellent value there, consider him a great sleeper this year.  Another name you should remember is Darius Watts.  This guys has been a favorite of coach Shanahan's for a while now and with Lelie out of the picture, he moves up to the 3rd spot and should see some meaningful action this year.  Keeper league guys should really think about Watts as Rod Smith is just about done and Watts figures to be the guy who moves up into a starting role once Smith calls it a career.

Final Analysis:

Clinton Portis: Downgrade to late 1st round selection.

Warrick Dunn: Upgrade to late 2nd, early 3rd round selection.

T.J. Duckett: Same value.

Ladell Betts: Drop him from your team and draft boards.

Jerious Norwood: Keeper league value increases.

Ashley Lelie: Drop him from your team and draft boards.

Javon Walker: Slight increase.

Darius Watts: Slight increase with keeper league value.

(ESPN) Lelie to Atlanta/Duckett to Washington in 3-Team Deal

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8/24/06   |   TheDondino

Pat wrote:
My personal opinion on the deal:

I agree with most of the evaluation, but I think the overall effect on Duckett will be a little more than has been mentioned here. I think that Although he will initially get a few more carries, I think the long-term effect on him is overall slightly negative. He'll get the first couple starts, but I definitely don't see him stealing as many goal-line opportunities from a stud like Portis(when healthy) as he was able to take from the smaller and quicker Dunn. I agree that this is HUGE for Warrick Dunn's value, I think that Duckett's stock drops a little bit in the long term. If you draft him, I would suggest trading him about a week or two before Portis returns, because once Clinton's back, he's not going to be as much of a TD machine as he was in Atlanta, in my opinion.

I agree with trying to trade Duckett after a couple of weeks, but I still believe he'll be a bigger threat on the goal line.  Last year Portis had 15 goal line carries but only scored 4 touchdowns.  Duckett, in contrast, had 12 goal line carries and scored 7 touchdowns.  Ducketts percentage is one of the highest in the league (better than L.J., L.T., Alexnder, etc.).  That fact won't go unnoticed by Gibbs and Saunders.  They'll have the luxury of sending in the best goal line back in the league and hold back Portis to keep his shoulder from injury, and I think they'll use it quite often.  The size difference from Dunn to Portis is considerable - Dunn at 5'9" 180 lbs to Portis 5'11" 212, so the need to send Duckett (6'1" 254) in for Portis wouldn't be as big as the need to send him in for Dunn, but the injury situation levels that playing field.  Gibbs knows that Portis is the guy they need grinding it out outhere for them to get to the playoffs and he'll do everything he can to prevent him from being re-injured.

8/24/06   |   Pat   |   5232 respect

My personal opinion on the deal:

I agree with most of the evaluation, but I think the overall effect on Duckett will be a little more than has been mentioned here. I think that Although he will initially get a few more carries, I think the long-term effect on him is overall slightly negative. He'll get the first couple starts, but I definitely don't see him stealing as many goal-line opportunities from a stud like Portis(when healthy) as he was able to take from the smaller and quicker Dunn. I agree that this is HUGE for Warrick Dunn's value, I think that Duckett's stock drops a little bit in the long term. If you draft him, I would suggest trading him about a week or two before Portis returns, because once Clinton's back, he's not going to be as much of a TD machine as he was in Atlanta, in my opinion.

8/23/06   |   TheDondino

fxdirect wrote:

So, an update from my draft so far today.  With the 8th pick in the first round (12 team league), I did not pick Portis, even though he was the top of my draft board.  I skipped down two spots on my board to Ronnie Brown.

Portis was still there when I got a chance for my second pick (5th pick, round 2).  I took him then.  Looks like a lot of people downgraded him even further.  I am happy with him there though...

Definitely feel that Portis is a steal in the 2nd round.  His risk/reward potential is so high that he's a great get there.

8/23/06   |   fxdirect

I'll start a new thread for that.  Why not right?

8/23/06   |   CriticalFanatic

fxdirect wrote:

So, an update from my draft so far today.  With the 8th pick in the first round (12 team league), I did not pick Portis, even though he was the top of my draft board.  I skipped down two spots on my board to Ronnie Brown.

Portis was still there when I got a chance for my second pick (5th pick, round 2).  I took him then.  Looks like a lot of people downgraded him even further.  I am happy with him there though...

I say that's a steal for a second round running back. Even if he misses a week or two. Keep the updates coming.

8/23/06   |   fxdirect

So, an update from my draft so far today.  With the 8th pick in the first round (12 team league), I did not pick Portis, even though he was the top of my draft board.  I skipped down two spots on my board to Ronnie Brown.

Portis was still there when I got a chance for my second pick (5th pick, round 2).  I took him then.  Looks like a lot of people downgraded him even further.  I am happy with him there though...

8/23/06   |   CriticalFanatic

I was hoping to throw in a little video here in the comments ... but instead I'll just comment. While a big Bears fan, in the NFL I'm a little more of a follower of particular players. Duckett being one of my favorites. I'm forever indebted to him as he provided some of the greatest Spartans highlights of my life.

I've always been extremely eager to know what Duckett could do with 15-20 carries instead of just 5-10 at best. I'm with you in thinking perhaps this suggest Portis is injured more than we're being told. Regardless, if Portis was 100% healthy this is still major news to Portis owners (of which I'm one). TJ will be stealing 5-6 TD's from Clinton which is very significant fantasy news.

Thanks for the post TBone.