This preview will be in a bit different when compared to how I analyzing the 2008 NFL Playoffs. Normally, I spend the first 2/3 of the article describing how the two teams are built, and how they play. The last portion of the paper is an analysis of what I think will happen in the game.

The Eagles and Giants are bitter rivals. For example, it is the middle of a cool sunny day in Philadelphia. All of a sudden the driver of a tan Toyota Camry realizes he has a flat tire, and pulls off to the side of I95. Before the driver leaves his car, he turns on the emergency lights in his car to alert other drivers. The driver gets out of the car, but is wearing a Giants jacket. The first car drives by, the driver glances over, and just shakes his head. The next car drives by, and begins to slow up. The stranded driver, still wearing the Giants jacket, is thinking it just might be his lucky day. However, he is in for a rude awakening. The 2nd car pulls off to the shoulder of the road, and both the passenger and backseat passenger side windows are rolled down. A woman and her son spit in the stranded drivers face, chant E-A-G-L-E-S, then the car speeds back onto I95. Is this story false? No, if you are wearing Giants gear this week in Philadelphia, then the later is far from the worst thing that could happen to.

Ordinarily I start breaking down how a team is built, what their stats are, how their stats match up to their opponents. Well, the normal stats don’t mean anything in this game. These two teams are separated by 100 miles, and have played each other at least twice a year for decades. Five of the last eight regular season games have been decided by a TD or less. Furthermore, Steve Spagnuolo, the Giants defensive coordinator, learned his defensive philosophies from Jim Johnson, the Eagles defensive coordinator, when he was Johnson’s “right hand man” only a few years ago. In fact, Spagnuolo modeled the Giant’s defense after his mentor’s, Jim Johnson. This game will be determined by two main variables, (1) who commits the least amount of penalties and turnovers, and (2) who wants it more.  

The Eagles need to play a great game, and will need just a little bit of luck to win to this game. First, the Eagles need to have some form of a running game, even if they rush the ball 20 times for just 14 yards, they need to keep the Giants defense honest, and prevent them from knowing when a pass is coming. I expect Westbrook to gain rushing yards in big chunks, rather than a steady diet. Also, I believe Buckhalter will have around 10 carries, just enough to spell Westbrook against the Giants physical defense.

The Eagles LT, John Runyan, is having problems with his knees, and is listed as questionable on the IR. However, I guarantee that Runyan starts and plays today in his 220th straight NFL game. If the Giants are smart, then they will have their best DE, Justin Tuck, matchup against a wounded animal. Therefore, the Eagles will need to bring over TE Brent Celek to help Runyan block at times, and prevent Tuck from pressuring McNabb. The Giants like to blitz, one counter to an aggressive blitzing defense are screen passes, watch for screens to Westbrook to get him the ball in open space. One of the biggest variables in the game will be for McNabb to spread the ball around to at least six or seven different players, and to not turn the ball over. The most important variable for the Eagles on offense is that when they enter the red zone, they have to score TDs, and can not settle for FGs. This is because the Meadowlands is David Akers' “Personal Hell”, and has had very little success throughout his career. Including every regular season and playoff games, Akers is 8 for 17 or 47% at the Meadowlands; whereas, Akers has made 81% of his FGs for his career. To quickly summarize, the Eagles have to stay with the running game, keep pressure off of McNabb even if that means using the TE to help pass block, McNabb needs to spread the ball around to six or seven players, in the red zone the Eagles have to score TDs, and can not turn the ball over.

The Giants are 1-3 since losing Plaxico Burress, and are averaging 10 fewer points per game. The Eagles defense just needs to keep their offense in the game, and this is how they will do it. When the Giants had Plax, he commanded a cornerback and one of the safeties at all times. However, Burress is suspended, and will not play in this game. Therefore, this will allow Brain Dawkins to roam free, and make plays. Look for Dawkins to pressure Eli, stop RBs from reaching the secondary, and even look for Dawkins to blow up an offensive lineman because it will open up a play for someone else. With Dawkins acting as a rouge agent, SS Quintin Mikell will be playing over the top the majority of the game. The Eagles conerbacks, Asante Samuel, Sheldon Brown, and Lito Sheppard have arguably the most important job on the field today. They have to jam the Giants WRs at the line of scrimmage, and disrupt their timing. Then, the Eagles CBs will be in man to man for most of the game, and should not count on help because it is unknown what side of the field SS Mikell will be at.  

The most important variable not only on defense for the Eagles, but for the game, will be the Giants rushing offense known as Earth, Wind, and Fire (Jacobs pounds and wears down the defense, then it is ready for Ward who runs up to a LB only cut to his left a second before impact. In the 4th quarter, once the defense is tired from being pounded on from Jacobs, and having to catch Ward before he cuts up the field, the Giants bring in Bradshaw who has the ability to break long runs). Jacobs has claimed all week that he is healthy, and ready to go. However, the last time they played the Eagles,Jacobs was held to 52 rushing yards with 8 defensive players in box. Derrick Ward and Ahmad Bradshaw are not nearly as effective if Jacobs is unable to wear down the defensive front. Assuming the blueprint for the Giants rushing defense goes as planned, it will be up to Eli Manning to put up points for the Giants. Eli has had his worst passing numbers during the Giants 1-3 stretch, including his worst completion percentage and 2nd lowest passing rating against the Eagles. Eli followed this game up against the Cowboys with his 2nd worst completion percentage and a passer rating of 43.9. Against the Vikings, Eli barley passed above 100 yards, and only completed 58% of his passes. Could it be that Eli just had his worst games of the season, at the end of the season? It is possible, but Manning has only thrown 2 of his 21 passing TDs since the absence of Burress, and has thrown 2 of his 10 INTs since the absence of Burress.  

I think the Eagles will win 20-17, in a game that sees the lead change quite a few times.