Before I even start to breakdown this game I want to let everyone know that I am analyzing this game from an objective viewpoint. What I believe will happen in this game is a result from what I believe as an independent analyst, and is NOT from being a Philadelphia fan.
The Eagles are probably the luckiest team to enter the playoffs because if Oakland did not beat the Bucs at Tampa Bay, and the Texans did not beat the Bears, then the Eagles would not even have been in the playoffs. But the Eagles are hot, going 4-1 since McNabb was benched during the Baltimore game. 2 of the 4 wins were against NFC playoff teams, Arizona and New York, and the Eagles destroyed the Cowboys in their season finale 44-6, in a game that would allow the winner to take the final Wild Card spot.
The Eagles offense has been Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde throughout the season. Andy Reid loves to throw the ball, but the Eagles are 2-5-1 when they attempt at least 35 passes. In other words, 5 of their 6 losses have occurred when the Eagles commit to an unbalanced offense that favors the pass. Now some people could be thinking that teams pass the ball more when they are behind. However, due to living in the Philadelphia area, I have watched every game. There are plenty of times where Andy Reid does not even try to establish a running game. The latter has caused multiple problems. The Eagles have a hard time converting short yardage situations. Now, one could argue that the Eagles have a hard time converting short yardage situations because they do not have a “big back”. Well, the problem is deeper than that. Run blocking is a mind set. You establish the tempo, and you go out and smack someone in the mouth. On the other hand, with pass blocking you are preventing someone from going somewhere. How do you expect to run the ball late in the game when you have not done it all game?
This year the Eagles defense has been overshadowed by Pittsburg, Baltimore, and Tennessee. They enter the game with the 3rd ranked overall defense, the 4th ranked rushing defense, the 3rd ranked passing defense, and only allow 18.1 points per game for 4th best in the NFL. The Eagles defense is based on pressuring the QB with exotic blitz packages. However, the pass rush starts with the defensive ends. Trent Cole and Darren Howard have combined for 21 sacks. The other half of the Eagles defensive philosophy is that if the QB is constantly under pressure eventually he will make mistakes that result in interceptions. Thus, the Eagles have a very strong secondary with 3 Pro Bowl cornerbacks led by Asante Samuel, Sheldon Brown, and Lito Shepard. Also, emerging super star, strong safety Quintin Mikell, has picked off 3 passes this year. Oh, I almost forget to mention Future Hall of Fame free safety, Brian Dawkins. Another defensive philosophy is to have the opposing offense try to convert long 3rd downs. This is when D Coordinator, Jim Johnson, dials up the blitz. The Eagles have only allowed offenses to convert 3rd downs 32.2% of the time, which is the 2nd best in the NFL.
The last time the Vikings were in the playoffs was when Randy Moss “mooned” the Green Bay fans. The Vikings enter the playoffs winning 5 of their last 6 games, and just like the Eagles, are 2-0 against NFC playoff teams during this stretch with wins over Arizona and New York. The Vikings lost 5 of their 6 games by a TD or less, including 3 losses by less than 4 points. The offensive philosophy of the Vikings is simple, line up and run the ball, and have a QB manage the game. They are led by running back prodigy, Adrian Peterson, who led the NFL in rushing yards. When Peterson needs a breather, they bring in Chester Taylor who averages 4.0 yards a carry.
Gus Frerotte was the starting QB after the Vikings started the season 0-2, and was 8-3 until he hurt his back. Today, the Vikings will have to rely on 3rd year QB Tarvaris Jackson, who is still learning how to play QB in the NFL. After losing the first two games of the season, Jackson went 2-1 the last 3 games of the season, and helped the Vikings clinch the NFC North. He has the option to throw the ball deep to Bernard Berrian, or look for underrated tight end Visanthe Shiancoe in the flat. However, the most important job for Tarvaris is to not throw interceptions. The Vikings defense is built to stop the run, and leads the NFL with the best rushing defense. Therefore, most teams are forced to throw the ball, but the Vikings have not taken advantage of making offenses one dimensional with only 12 INTs, ranked 21st. However, they have held teams to 20.6 points, which is ranked 13th in the NFL.
Gus Frerotte was the starting QB after the Vikings started the season 0-2, and was 8-3 until he hurt his back. Today, the Vikings will have to rely on 3rd year QB Tarvaris Jackson, who is still learning how to play QB in the NFL. After losing the first two games of the season, Jackson went 2-1 the last 3 games of the season, and helped the Vikings clinch the NFC North. He has the option to throw the ball deep to Bernard Berrian, or look for underrated tight end Visanthe Shiancoe in the flat. However, the most important job for Tarvaris is to not throw interceptions. The Vikings defense is built to stop the run, and leads the NFL with the best rushing defense. Therefore, most teams are forced to throw the ball, but the Vikings have not taken advantage of making offenses one dimensional with only 12 INTs, ranked 21st. However, they have held teams to 20.6 points, which is ranked 13th in the NFL.
I believe the Eagles will win this game 20-14. To do that, the Eagles offense will need to get the ball to Westbrook. I doubt that they will be very effective running the ball, but for the Eagles to put together drives they will need to at least not totally abandon the run game. McNabb can throw the ball to Westbrook either in the backfield or in the flat for a 4 or 5 yard gain, which is equivalent to Westbrook running the ball. Also, look for running back Correll Buckhalter (averaged 4.9 yards per carry), who is a more physical back than Westbrook, to have a few carries this game because he was used to picking up yards against the Bears and Steelers who both have great rushing defenses. Look for McNabb to throw the ball around to 5 or 6 different targets, and to exploit the Vikings weak pass defense. One of the big keys for McNabb to have a successful day will be for the O-line to be able to pass block against the Vikings who have 44 sacks, ranked 4th in the NFL. Eagles, Tackle John Runyan will have his hands full with defensive end Jarred Allen.
As long as the Eagles do not turn the ball over, the game will be won with their defense. The Vikings are the worst team in the NFL against the blitz with a rating of 52.3, and have allowed 43 sacks. Only 5 other teams have allowed more sacks. Expect to see the Eagles pressure Jackson all day. Jackson will need to learn in certain situations to take the sack, and not force a pass into a great secondary. Another big key to the game will be for the Vikings to establish the run with Peterson. However, the Eagles have the 4th best rushing defense led by defensive tackle Brodrick Bunkley. The Eagles will need to contain Peterson, and prevent him from breaking a long run for a TD. Adrian Peterson does have an Achilles heel, fumbles. Peterson fumbled the ball an NFL high 9 times. Also, the Vikings have a -6 turnover margin, which is the worst of any team in the playoffs. In the end, I expect the Eagles to create a couple of turnovers that will be the ultimate key in the game.
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