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7/29/08
Fantasy Football Predictions and Rankings: Quarterbacks
Can Tom Brady Repeat His Record Breaking Season?
It's that time, again. Whether your NFL fantasy football league is starting this week or next month, it's your obligation to spend valuable time at work preparing for one of the most important days of the man-calendar: draft day.

Each day for the remainder of the week, I'll be looking at each of the key positions and sharing my own projections. Please share yours in the poll and comments below. When all else fails, we'd rather rely on the FanIQ composite rankings than Matthew Berry.

Here's my top 10 quarterbacks in terms of fantasy production, not overall talent, etc. (key stat projections)

1. Tom Brady - (44 TD / 13 INT; 4,275 yards)
So long as Randy Moss is still around and healthy, there's no reason to think anyone will surpass Brady in the fantasy rankings. Bill Belichick is clearly committed to throwing the ball around and why not? Brady's 50 TD's in 2007 brought about an undefeated regular season. I suspect his numbers will drop slightly, simply because I can't fathom them increasing even more. The schedule isn't overwhelming in the least and if you're one of those who puts a major emphasis on the final three weeks (playoff time), then he's without question your first QB choice (@ OAK, ARI, @ BUF).

2. Drew Brees - (38 TD / 20 INT; 4,350 yds)
I missed badly in my prediction that Brees and the Saints offense would blow up last season. They can't be that big of a letdown two years in a row, especially with the addition of Jeremy Shockey. However, don't confuse this with thinking the Saints are going to be a great team. Sometimes trailing in the 4th quarter frequently is a fantasy owners dream.

3. Peyton Manning - (36 TD / 12 INT; 4,135 yds)
Two reasons for putting Manning behind Brees: 1) can't be sure he'll be 100% until the end of September -- although a 75% Peyton is still better than Brees, and 2) The Colts will need to grind out some victories with the early slate of the Bears, Vikings and Jaguars to start the year. Call this is Joseph Addai factor that has "plagued" Manning owners the last two years. He makes the team better overall, but cuts into Peyton's touchdown mark.

4. Carson Palmer - (32 TD / 18 INT; 4,380 yds)
Palmer, Tony Romo and Big Ben are toss ups, but I'm going with Carson based on the need to pass more since you can expect them to be trailing a fair amount. I wouldn't expect the defense to give the Bengals offense a whole lot of rest either. Palmer and Chad Johnson will get back on the same page while T.J. Houshyourmamma gets more of the touchdown catches.

5. Tony Romo - (33 TD / 22 INT; 4,050 yds)
Romo is intriguing as always. Capable of blowing up with a 5 TD, 300-yard passing performance to win you your weekly matchup, but he's also bound to sprinkle in some interception laden weeks with single digit point totals (see: @ BUF). That said, it's much more of former. Romo also has the advantage over those above in the running department. While he'll never be grouped in the same category as Michael Vick, he's gotten his share or running TD's.

6. Ben Roethlisberger - (30 TD / 13 INT; 3,650 yds)I expect Big Ben to continue build upon last year's strong 32 TD, 11 INT performance, but the only thing holding him back compared to those above is the toughest schedule in the NFL. The Steelers will allow Ben to open it up more and more, but this is still Pittsburgh we're talking about, who will always commit to running the football, particularly with Rashard Mendenhall give Mike Tomlin another option.

7. Derek Anderson - (32 TD / 22 INT; 4,100 yds)
I can't be confident that the Browns breakout starter will minimize his interceptions, but with Braylon Edwards and Kellen Winslow at his disposal, the touchdown and yards will be there. Add Donte Stallworth deep threat to the mix and Anderson is a must start every week.

8. Eli Manning - (28 TD / 14 INT; 3,550 yds)
No Jeremy Shockey distraction for a full season + Super Bowl champion confidence = more week to week fantasy consistency for Eli. If not for Tom Coughlin insistence on pounding and pounding with Brandon Jacobs, I'm tempted to go even higher with Manning. Plaxico Burress will be fine when Sundays come around and I like Steve Smith to break out.

9. Matt Hasselbeck - (26 TD / 16 INT;  3,880 yds)
I suspect most of you will have Hasselbeck a little higher, but now that Mike Holmgren has an improved backfield, I suspect he'll use it. Especially near the goalline.

10. Donovan McNabb - (23 TD / 14 INT; 3,400 yds)
This pick frighens me, but willing to roll the dice that he stays healthy and continue to pad his stats with quick dump off to Brian Westbrook.

Sleeper: Matt Schaub - Tempted to replace McNabb with the Texans QB who will have Andre Johnson healthy, and be more comfortable in the offense in year two.

Bust: Marc Bulger - Good QB, terrible offensive line. Hate to predict injuries, but we're doing it here.

Random Bold Prediction: JaMarcus Russell finishes in the top half of fantasy quarterbacks.
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7/29/08
3
I think your prediction for Russell was a pretty bold one... but not your boldEST.

The boldest prediction you made was picking 7 QB's to throw for 30+ TD's. That hasn't happened ever, and the most QB's to have 30+ TD's in a single year is 4, which happened in 1980, 2004 and 2007.

That being said, everyone that you listed is capable of making that happen. And it doesn't seem all that unrealistic. I'm sure some teams are going to move towards a more prolific passing attack, after seeing the Patriots' success with that last year.

7/29/08
3
I think your prediction for Russell was a pretty bold one... but not your boldEST.

The boldest prediction you made was picking 7 QB's to throw for 30+ TD's. That hasn't happened ever, and the most QB's to have 30+ TD's in a single year is 4, which happened in 1980, 2004 and 2007.

That being said, everyone that you listed is capable of making that happen. And it doesn't seem all that unrealistic. I'm sure some teams are going to move towards a more prolific passing attack, after seeing the Patriots' success with that last year.

7/30/08
1
Pat wrote:
I think your prediction for Russell was a pretty bold one... but not your boldEST.

The boldest prediction you made was picking 7 QB's to throw for 30+ TD's. That hasn't happened ever, and the most QB's to have 30+ TD's in a single year is 4, which happened in 1980, 2004 and 2007.

That being said, everyone that you listed is capable of making that happen. And it doesn't seem all that unrealistic. I'm sure some teams are going to move towards a more prolific passing attack, after seeing the Patriots' success with that last year.

I'm sure some teams are going to move towards a more prolific passing attack, after seeing the Patriots' success with that last year.

 

Although noone will ever duplicate it. And more than 50% will straight up FAIL!!


 
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