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7/30/08
Fantasy Football Predictions and Rankings: Running Backs
Can Adrian Peterson Surpass LaDainian Tomlinson As Fantasy Stud?
It's that time, again. Whether your NFL fantasy football league is starting this week or next month, it's your obligation to spend valuable time at work preparing for one of the most important days of the man-calendar: draft day.

Each day for the remainder of the week, I'll be looking at each of the key positions and sharing my own projections. Please share yours in the poll and comments below. When all else fails, we'd rather rely on the FanIQ composite rankings than Matthew Berry.

Yesterday it was the Quarterbacks. Today, Running Backs.

Drafting your RB's used to be so easy, as the majority of teams had a clear cut workhorse. Lately, there are only a handful of guys you can be certain will have the ball in all red zone situations. The proliferation of the two-back set has definitely caused a few league championships to change hands after your main man drove 75 yards down the field, only to be replaced by the other guy for the final snaps.

Here's my Top 15 running backs predictions using the standard scoring system (stat projections -  rushing / receiving):

1. Adrian Peterson - (1,820 yds, 19 TD / 410 yds, 3 TD)
That's right, AD is surpassing LaDainian Tomlinson as the top fantasy stud. If you're starting a keeper league, he's the obvious choice, but when it comes to just '08, it's merely a matter of Purple Jesus starting and finishing all 16 games. The addition of Bernard Berrian to the pass game will help spread the field and keep some teams from crowding the box. Downside is, of course, facing the Bears and Packers run defenses four times.

2. LaDainian Tomlinson - (1,650 yds, 18 TD / 455 yds, 3 TD)
No need to worry about the torn MCL as surgery wasn't needed, but it did seem like some defenses finally figured out a way to bottle up LT last season.

3. Marion Barber - (1,210 yds, 19 TD / 385 yds, 4 TD)
Felix Jones is the big unknown here, which makes this prediction a big risk, but I have a hard time believing the Arkansas rookie will come in and steal goalline carries. Expect the Cowboys to score early and often, with Barber being the beneficiary.

4. Brian Westbrook - (1,390 yds, 14 TD / 625 yds, 5 TD)
I'll never forgive Westbrook for what he did to me last year, stopping on the 1-yard line in Dallas, even though it didn't cost me a win. The treat in owning the Eagles running back is that he's bound to get double digit points each week as he'll get his fair share of drop offs from McNabb even if the run game is bottled up.

5. Josepha Addai - (1,450 yds, 14 TD / 350 yds, 2 TD)
Want to start out fast, grab Addai. Whether Peyton is 90% or 60% when the season starts I suspect he'll start, but he'll be handing off to his running back an awful lot. Love watching Addai run, as hard and fearless as just about anyone on this list.

6. Marshawn Lynch
- (1,350 yds, 13 TD / 230 yds, 2 TD)
He runs with a lot more awareness than he drives. That we can be sure of. Trent Edwards' development and rapport with Lee Evans will go a long way to keep teams from crowding the line of scrimmage to stop the second year back out of Cal. Great pick for a sleeper league, obviously.

7. Steven Jackson - (1,290 yds, 10 TD / 400 yds, 3 TD)
Rams offensive line still needs a great deal of work, but Jackson is too talented to keep that from holding him down. Minor health concern which is why I've kept the number lower than he's capable of.

8. Clinton Portis - (1,220 yds, 11 TD / 220 yds, 1 TD)
It's a broken record, but I might as well repeat it again here: IF HEALTHY [Insert Character of the Week] is going to be good for 15 points a week. Washington should move the ball better on offense, giving Portis some more red zone opportunities and the improved passing game will open of the field. Thought long and hard about moving him up a couple spots.

9. Frank Gore - (1,200 yds, 8 TD / 350 yds, 1 TD)
If for no other reason than he's going to get his carries and be most of the 49ers offense. Only reason I don't have him higher is the presence of Mike Martz as the San Francisco OC. You just never know when he'll forget about his running back.

10. Maurice Jones-Drew - (830 yds, 8 TD / 500 yds, 5 TD, Ret TD)
And here's where the dual running back system begins to turn this into a week-to-week guessing game. Despite Fred Taylor, you still have to love MJD's versatility and bank on the fact Freddy can't go another season without injury.

11. Laurence Maroney - Will inch close to 1,000 yards.
12. Willis McGahee - Lack of offense and inevitable Joe Flacco project will hurt.
13. Michael Turner - see above, replace Flacco with Matt Ryan.
14. Larry Johnson - see above, replace Ryan with Brodie Croyle.
15. Darren McFadden - I believe. Al Davis will force him to get the ball as much as possible.

Your thoughts and rankings are desired below.
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7/30/08
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Not that he's top 10 material or anything, but Jamal Lewis did put up about 1300 yards last year, and the Browns actually do have one of the better offenses, so he should be good for some points.

A good pickup for your #2 back after then inevitable run on RB's (most of these guys here) in the 1st round.


 
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