After a week off to rest and recharge, the Nascar Sprint Cup Series gets back to racing with the Aaron's 499.  Held at the Talladega Super Speedway, the Aaron's 499 is the 2nd restrictor plate race of the year and fantasy wise, a difficult race to try and predict what will happen.  The Talladega Super Speedway is noted for being the most competitive track in the series, with its 2.66 mile tri-oval featuring alot of two and three wide racing.  Historically, speeds can be expected to reach the 192-200 mile range throughout the entire trip around the track and with the new and improved asphalt surface, expect this race to be wide open and fast from start to finish.

When it comes to racing at Talladega, horsepower is the number one key.  With the drivers racing full throttle near 200mph, the engines will get a workout as soon as the green flag drops.  A driver's skill to draft with other cars is another key to racing at Talladega.  A driver can have a fast car but if he doesnt know how to draft, he will not win this race.  A driver must display alot of patience, stay in line and pick and choose when to move forward.  Because there is alot of side by side, pack racing, a slight error by any driver can result in the infamous "Big One", the crash that happens during the race that sometimes involves and/or knocks anywhere from 1/3 to 1/2 of the field.  Depending on the number of cautions, fuel mileage could play a role as cars are required to have a 16 gallon gas tank, which means more pit stops.  In past races, tires havent been a major concern so two or 4 tire stops wont be as important as the engines.  Also, Nascar will be using the COT for only the second time at a restrictor plate race, so expect the normal culprits that ran well as Daytona to have a slight advantage heading into this race.

In the last 10 races run at Talladega, a driver from DEI or Hendrick Motorsports has won all the races except one.  Jeff Gordon has managed to win 4 of those races, including a sweep last year while Jimmie Johnson and Brian Vickers each managed one win for Hendrick.  Of course, Dale Earnhardt Jr has also won 4 times here but that was under the banner of DEI.  Now that he has joined Hendrick, this race figures to be his best chance to break his 70 race winless streak.  This track favors drivers with drafting experience who know how to work well with teammates and other drivers.  The Hendrick camp has 3 of the best in doing that, so expect them to be near the front when the checkered flag drops.

Ones to Watch

Tony Stewart - has a pair of victories on the sister track of Daytona International Speedway, but he's never won at Talladega. He's come close, however, with six runner-up results to his credit, including three consecutive near misses in 2005 and 2006.

Dale Earnhardt Jr - Jr.'s talent on the plate tracks is unquestioned.  Little E was untouchable from fall 2001 through fall 2004, finishing first or second in seven consecutive races, including a remarkable streak of four consecutive victories.  In his last six attempts on this track, Earnhardt has failed to record another top-five and finished outside the top 20 four times, but with Hendrick power under the hood, Jr. has to be considered one of the favorites in this race.

Ryan Newman - Daytona 500 winner doesn't have the same stellar numbers as Johnson, Earnhardt or Stewart, but he's a solid pick on the plate tracks. Last year, Newman got off to a rocky start in the 500 and then came back to sweep the top 15 in the final three plate races, which gives him a four-race top-15 streak on this type of track entering the weekend.

Jimmie Johnson - He finally notched his first win of the 2008 season and has been running well in neraly every race this year. He has won here before and should have won another one had Brian Vickers not tapped him, sending him and Dale Jr into a spin and crash on the last 1/2 lap. He has won is the most improved driver in the series over the course of his career on plate tracks.

Jeff Gordon - has struggled so far in 2008 and if there was a track that could cure his teams misfortunes, its Talladega.  He swept both races last year, including coming from 34th to win the fall race.  The Hendrick program excels on plate tracks and they have one of the best COT programs in the series.  Gordon needs a good finish to turn around a distasterous beginning to the season.

Kevin Harvick - Kevin has been pretty solid so far in 2008 and he is coming into a track where he is the highest rated driver over the last 10 races. He hasn't won here in the past but has won plate races at Daytona. Childress has a good plate program and has a vastly improved COT program. Harvick has finished outside the Top 10 in just two of the last ten races so odds are that he will finish in the Top 10

Reed Sorenson - He had a great Speedweeks this fall, finishing in the top 10 in the Bud Shootout and his Gatorade 150 qualification race. In the big show, he garnered a fifth-place result, which combines with his 10th in last year's EA Sports 500 at Talladega to make him a very compelling pick this weekend

Driver's averages on super speedways

My pick - Dale Earnhardt Jr - This track has always been a track that Dale Jr has done well at and he seems to have inherited his dad's ability to draft his way to the front. The difference this year will be the fact that he has two teammates that are very good here also and would like to push him to a win here.  He has won here multiple times in the past years and I see him ending his long no win streak here on Sunday.

Sleeper pick - Kurt Busch - Kurt pushed teammate, Ryan Newman to victory at Daytona earlier this season and has 7 straight top 10 finishes at Talladega. He definitely isn't having his best season, with ill handling cars and mechanical failures but he knows how to get around Talladega in the draft.  In 14 starts, he has 11 top-10s, which makes him as close to a sure thing as you'll find on a restrictor-plate track.