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4/3/08
Fantasy Nascar Preview and Predictions - Samsung 500
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After back to back races on short tracks, its back to high speed racing as the Nascar Sprint Cup Series heads to Texas for the Samsung 500.  Held at the 1.5 mile Texas Motor Speedway, the Samsung 500 will be run for the first time using the Car of Tomorrow.  The Texas Motor Speedway is considered one of those cookie cutter tracks and its very similar to Lowe's and Atlanta with its 1.5 mile quad ovals and 24 degrees of banking.  Drivers who have had success at those tracks should be up near the front when the checkered flag flies ending the Samsung 500.

When it comes to racing at Texas, horsepower is the number one key to success.  This track is hard on the engine guys because you have to have a lot of top-end horsepower for the straights aways and you have to have a lot of bottom end to pull you off the corners.  Teams are always concerned about this track because the fast pace is hard on tires.  The cars run really soft springs and the cars suck down on the ground, so it just amplifies the abuse on tires, especially the right front.  The loads in the corners are so great on the right front that the teams will look at the tire for problems all day.  Teams will try to push the envelope in terms of taking 2 tires or no tires at all as to try to gain track position but the teams that take four tires will have a huge advantage.  This race will be won by the team that has one of the better engine programs and makes good decisions in the pits on tire wear.

 

In the fourteen races that have been run at Texas, there have been thirteen (13) different winners, which makes picking a winner here pretty tough.  Jeff Burton won the spring race last year and became the first repeat winner in the history of the Texas track.  In the fall race, it was none other then Jimmie Johnson coming away as the winner.  Of the active teams and owners, Roush Racing and Hendrick Motorsports have the best overall records at Texas and considering how things went last year and so far this year, that could spell trouble for everyone else in the Srpint Cup Series this week. As far as visiting victory lane, Roush Racing leads the way with five (5) wins while Yates and Hendrick Racing have won 2 races apiece. DEI, Evernham, Gibbs, Penski and Childress have all won a race here.

 

Ones to Watch

 

Jeff Burton - He's been on quite a roll, clinching four straight top 10s and three top fives in the last four races. This includes a victory at Bristol and a third at Martinsville.  He's already won twice at Texas, including last April. In addition, he's had three straight top sixes by clinching sixth in April 2006 and last November at the track.

 

Jimmie Johnson - He excels on tracks like these (Lowe's, Atlanta, etc) and he managed to win his first career race here last fall in relatively easy fashion.  He is only one of two drivers here that have finished in the Top 5 in half of his races here and one of three with 7 Top 10 finishes.

 

Kasey Kahne - He's raced to a surprising seventh-place overall in the Cup standings. He's recorded four top 10s in the season's first six races. Kahne has driven successfully at Texas, winning in April 2006 and finishing second in April '04

 

Dale Earnhardt Jr - He has finished in the top 14 eight of the 10 times he's traveled to Texas Motor Speedway, including a win and three top fives.

 

Casey Mears - He's claimed three top 10s (four top 15s) in seven career starts. In 2005, Mears raced to back-to-back fourth-place finishes in which he averaged a 28.5-position improvement from qualifying. He earns the third slot on my squad this weekend.

 

Jamie McMurray - After finishing 40th and last in the past two races, McMurray rebounded to place eighth at Martinsville, his first top-10 finish this season. Now he's aiming for his second top 10 of the season at Texas. He's raced well at the track, clinching five top 10s in seven career races. This includes a fifth in April and a ninth in November last year.

 

What the experts think

 

My pick - Matt Kenseth - Kenseth has finished inside the top three in four consecutive events at this track (he led 223 laps in those races) and owns six top-10 finishes in his past eight starts here (18th or better in each of them). His best effort came in 2002, when he improved 30 slots from his qualifying position, led 85 laps and claimed victory.

 

Sleeper pick - Martin Truex Jr - He has looked extremely tough on these style of tracks over the last year or so. He has just 5 races under his belt here and he has built the 4 best overall record with 3 Top 10 finishes in those races. Last year, he finished 7th and 3rd here with his worst finish being a 15th.

 

2 comments
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4/4/08
1
What a freakin rockin blog my friend!!!!! Do you write professionally?? I will be watching both Jr and Kahne really close Sunday. Both of them are far overdue for a win and both have the equipment, asa well as talent, to succed. I do however disagree with Truex being a sleeper pick. He has always had the potential to win but was in the "shadow" so to speak of Dale Jr. Now with Jr gone, and having a vetern driver such as Martin to get experienced information from, Truex, in my opinion, will be a threat throughout the season. It's not where you qualify but where you finish ;).  I think I'll take Biffle and Harvick as sleepers...Again, great blog, very well written.

4/4/08
1
The only reason I chose Truex as a sleeper for this race was because I think he has the best chance outside of anybody not apart of Hendrick, Roush, Gibbs or RCR.  I agree though, the skies the limit for him now that he isnt in the shadow of Junior and with Mark Martin providing a veteran presence for the DEI organization, Truex will reap the benefits on and off the track

 
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