Fantasy football musings: Tom Brady and QB value in the draft

5/24/13 in NFL   |   droth   |   127 respect

With football's ever-increasing popularity, there is no such thing as an offseason anymore.  I should be enjoying a beautiful spring day, but instead I'm sitting here contemplating fantasy draft strategy.

Jan 20, 2013; Foxboro, MA, USA; New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady (12) before a snap against the Baltimore Ravens in the second quarter of the AFC championship game at Gillette Stadium.   Mandatory Credit: Stew Milne-USA TODAY SportsLet me tell you why I'm stressing about a fantasy draft that is months away.  I love Tom Brady.  There, I said it.  I love him.  I have him on at least one of the teams I care about every year and I've ridden him (sorry Gisele) to several championships in recent years.

For the last five or six years he has been a constant in my life.  I am, in no way, a Patriots fan but I've found myself rooting for him even in the playoffs, purely out of muscle memory.

But this year he will be without Wes Welker, his tight ends have some injury concerns, and his go-to target is Danny "if he can stay healthy" Amendola.   So the question is, do I still want Tom Brady as my QB? And if so, where do I draft him?  To answer these questions, we have to look at how he stacks up against the other QBs out there and how QBs will be valued compared to other positions going into this year.

The first question is, is the big T.B. still an elite QB even with less firepower around him?  Yes.  He is.  

Remember the season after Randy Moss left?  No one on that 2010 Pats team had more than 1000 yards receiving, new names emerged as legitimate receiving threats, and Tom Brady put up Tom Brady numbers.  It doesn't matter who he's throwing to, Belichick and Brady will figure out a way to move the ball down the field.  If they could win the division in 2006 with Rache Caldwell and Troy Brown starting at wide receiver, Brady should be fine with just Gronk, Amendola, and Hernandez as well as talented running backs.

Tom Brady isn't the best fantasy quarterback but, every year he is one of the best.  The same goes for Rodgers and Brees, you know their team is going to focus on the passing game and you know they are going to finish the year in the top 5 among quarterbacks.  

So Brady is still a top QB, the question now is where do you take him?

In the last few years, taking a QB with your first pick has become acceptable according to the experts.  It used to be a given that you take a running back first.  But last year, the "big 3" (Rodgers, Brees, Brady) all came off the board early and Cam Newton and Matt Stafford were right behind them as late first and early second round picks in 10 and 12 team leagues.

Now, according to ESPN fantasy guru Matthew Berry (whose podcast I highly recommend for its humor and insight), Aaron Rodgers is the 13th ranked player overall, Brees is 15th, and Brady is 21st.   He has Peyton Manning at #30 and Cam Newton at #31 then no QBs until Russel Wilson at #47.
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