Overvalued fantasy wide receivers
Note: All average draft positions (ADP) are according to Yahoo.
Randall Cobb (GB): Cobb had a nice breakthrough season in 2012, catching 80 passes for 954 yards and eight touchdowns. One concerning statistic, however, was Cobb's 77% catch-per-target rate, which is unlikely to be repeated; so even if he gets more looks (which he should), he may not top last season's production. To put Cobb's 77% into perspective, other short yardage receivers Percy Harvin and Wes Welker caught 73% and 67% of their targets, respectively. It's also worth noting that Harvin's percentage comes from a small sample size (nine games) and that he was on a league-leading pace in receptions. I think Cobb is poised for another good year, but he's being drafted over three players who had 100+ catches for 1,350+ yards in 2012 (A. Johnson, R. Wayne, W. Welker), and nine players who had 72+ catches for 1,040+ yards.
Dwayne Bowe (KC): The Chiefs' offense is going to be better this year - there's no doubt about it. What concerns me with Bowe, however, is the west coast system of head coach Andy Reid and the playing style of new quarterback Alex Smith. Reid's system features lots of dink-and-dunk type passes, while Bowe is a big body that should be sent deep to snatch balls away from the opposing secondary. As far as Smith, during his three years as the primary quarterback in San Francisco, he never had a thousand-yard receiver, despite having two top-ten draft picks (V. Davis, M. Crabtree) to throw to. Bowe is a lock for improved numbers in 2013, but he's being drafted five picks earlier than Reggie Wayne (106 catches, 1,355 yards in 2012) among others.
Eric Decker (DEN): Quarterback Peyton Manning has proven that he can turn two of his receivers into Pro Bowlers (i.e. Marvin Harrison and Reggie Wayne), but he has never sent three of his pass catchers to Hawaii (and most years he didn't even send two). With Pro Bowler Demaryius Thomas primed for another strong season and Wes Welker now in town, I see Decker as the least talented of the top three receivers, which will leave him as the odd man out. He'll still put up some solid numbers and Manning likes him in the red zone, but another thousand-yard season from Decker is unlikely. There are double-digit No. 1 receivers being drafted after Decker, and a few guys who caught for a thousand yards in 2012. Antonio Brown, Mike Wallace, and Steve Smith are some of the names that have lower ADPs.