Overvalued Fantasy Football Quarterbacks
Note: All average draft positions (ADP) are according to Yahoo.
Tom Brady (NE): Brady is easily one of the best quarterbacks in the league, and he is even among the all-time greats at his position. However, the Patriots have lost a number of weapons and could move to an offense centered more around the running game. With Wes Welker and Aaron Hernandez off the team and Rob Gronkowski's injury status remaining uncertain, Brady will have to rely on the extremely fragile Danny Amendola as his top weapon early in the season. The Patriots finished 2012 ranked 2nd in rushing attempts, and with less weapons to throw to, they could feed running backs Stevan Ridley and Shane Vereen even more this year. I still like Brady as good fantasy starter, but Sports Illustrated has him ranked 3rd among quarterbacks. I'd put guys like Peyton Manning and Matt Ryan - who run pass-first offenses with a plethora of weapons - above Brady.
Cam Newton (CAR): After a disappointing season in which he finished with the ninth most fantasy points among quarterbacks, Newton's stock is back on the rise. Why? I imagine it's due to his immense talent and electrifying playing style, but also his great finish to the 2012 season. Over his final seven games, Newton had 15 total touchdowns to only two interceptions. His quarterback rating was above 95.0 in five of those contests. While his play down the stretch was encouraging, I'm still a little wary of Newton at his current 28.5 ADP (4th among quarterbacks). Newton's top weapon - 34-year-old Steve Smith - is only getting older, and the Panthers did not do much to improve Newton's supporting cast on offense. There are other elite quarterbacks that carry less risk (i.e. Matt Ryan, whose ADP is 8th among quarterbacks).