Fragile Tension

6/29/14 in MLB   |   pigskinfan   |   65 respect

Blog Photo - Fragile TensionJust your basic. run of the mill game with the Reds last night.  There was dismay at them falling behind relatively late and not showing any real fire up to that point.  Missed scoring opportunities.  A couple of bonehead plays.  It all adds up to great frustration.  But then comes jubilation when they finally decide to get on the stick and take the lead in the 9th.  After that, there's plenty of cursing when you realize that Chapman is in the game to lock it down, but it's the 4th straight night he's been in a game, and he doesn't get the job done.  And finally, I'm just too worn out from all of the above to do more than breathe a sigh of relief when Cincy piles on in extras.  Yes.  Just another "yawner" like I've come to expect from the Reds.

Last night's win allowed me to finish the week at 7-3.  Yesterday also marked the last day of June for me, and the final tally for the month is 21-14.  It's not a great expansion of The Empire, but it is expansion all the same, and it ended up being a really good quarter for me.  That's all in the past though.  I've already "turned the page", and I'm ready to get the early drop on July.  Here we go!

THE SHOW  (3-1 yesterday, 20-11 for the week and 77-52 for the month)
Numbers are good.  They carry the most weight for me when deciding "yes" or "no" on any given game, but sometimes, you just have to put situation and gut instinct right up there on the same level with the numbers.  That's what is happening today.

BUTTA  (1-0 last night. 7-3 for the week and 21-14 for the month)
1.  BLUE JAYS (BUEHRLE -145) over White Sox (Quintana) - Jose Quintana has had good success against the Jays in the past going 3-1 against them, but Lefty carries the day here.  We all know Buehrle is a dominant force at home (154-79 lifetime on "his" bump), but he's also 78-40 at home in his career when his team is coming off a loss and 14-3 over the last 2 seasons when going against a sub-.500 team.  This is a situation where the home team goes for the split of the series with their best hurler on the slab.  Actually, it's a pretty easy call for me to make.
2.  GIANTS (HUDSON -115) over Reds (Bailey) - The 4-game series sweep is one of the hardest things in sports to accomplish.  That's what the Reds will be going for today in San Fran.  The Gigantes are a mess right now, but at some point, they're just going to have to draw a line in the sand, put their heels on that line and refuse to go backward.  This looks like a good spot for them to do just that.  Huddy is another dominant home pitcher, and he lost his last home start.  But he's also 5-1 lifetime against the Reds, 72-28 in his career when his team is coming off a loss and over the last 2 seasons, he's 14-3 against teams with winning records.

1.  Mets (Colon +110) over PIRATES (VOLQUEZ) - The Bucs got surprised by the Mets yesterday, but they've been playing great ball lately.  Colon has been hot for the Mets too.  He's won his last 3 starts and is 4-1 lifetime against the Pirates.  Volquez has shown signs here and there of being the guy that's 42-30 lifetime in games when his team in coming off a loss, but he's only 1-5 against the Mets.
2.  Twins (Gibson +105) over RANGERS (LEWIS) - The Twinks have fallen on hard times on this road trip, but I give them a puncher's chance today because Lewis is 0-4 lifetime against them with a whopping 8.48 ERA.
3.  MARINERS (HERNANDEZ -200) over Indians (House) - It's hard to pass on this matchup.  It's one that I generally will jump on every time.  We've got the ace pitcher at home on the team that is at least equal to it's opponent, and they're going for the series win in the rubber game.  What's troubling, however, is that Felix is only 9-15 at home over the last 3 seasons when the M's are coming off a loss.  The return doesn't justify the risk when we see data like that.

RUN LINES  (7-10 ATS/8-8 SU/5-12 TOTALS yesterday, 49-49/53-43/44-54 for the week and 219-166/209-165/200-185 for the month)
White Sox (+1 1/2, U9) Braves (-1 1/2, U8 1/2)
Red Sox Mets (+1 1/2, U7 1/2)
YANKEES (-1 1/2, U8 1/2) PIRATES
Rays (-1 1/2, U8 1/2) Rockies
ORIOLES BREWERS (-1 1/2, U8 1/2)
Twins D-Backs (+1 1/2, U7)
RANGERS (-1 1/2, U9 1/2) PADRES
Tigers (-1 1/2, U8 1/2) Cardinals
ASTROS DODGERS (-1 1/2, U6 1/2)
Angels (-1 1/2, U8 1/2) Reds (+1 1/2, U7)
Indians A's (-1 1/2, O8)
MARINERS (-1 1/2, O6 1/2) MARLINS

---The Dodgers are probably quite conspicuous in their absence from today's narratives given the fact that Kershaw in toeing the slab, but Clayton is only 4-7 lifetime against the Cardinals.  Be careful.
---There are 2 other teams besides the Reds that will be trying to complete a 4-game sweep today.  They are the Braves and the Brewers.  Other than the situation, I have nothing to say about either game.
---Why don't the Orioles hit better in their home park?
---In my own humble, yet quite educated, opinion, I'm bored with the whole Red Sox/Yankees thing and am sick of being subjected to it every time those 2 clubs hook up.  I'm sure the "locals" would prefer to listen to their own broadcasters instead of Bob Costas, Joe Buck and the interminably boring Dan Shulman.  I even think the networks would get a bigger audience from a matchup like the Cardinals vs. Dodgers, but then again, when could we ever expect the networks to be able to see the bigger picture?

BROOMOLOGY  (9-5 ATS & 7-7 SU last week and 20-30 & 23-27 for the month)
As you can see from the numbers, it was a decent week for BROOMOLOGY but a bad month.  Expect things to round more into form this month.

Road Dogs  (4-1 ATS & 3-2 SU last week and 10-12 & 8-14 for the month)
Twins (+1 1/2) at RANGERS
Rockies (+1 1/2) at BREWERS

Road Favorites  (0-1 ATS & SU last week and 1-3 & 2-2 for the month)
No situations today.

Home Dogs  (3-2 ATS & 2-3 SU last week and 3-4 & 2-5 for the month)
PHILLIES (+1 1/2) vs. Braves
MARLINS (+1 1/2) vs. Athletics

Home Favorites  (2-1 ATS & SU last week and 6-11 & 11-6 for the month)
PADRES (-1 1/2) over D-Backs
GIANTS (-1 1/2) over Reds

That's it, folks!  Have a grand and glorious Sunday.  I will see you tomorrow.

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