Kyle Busch is the clear favorite.  As a result of being the winningest driver so far this season, he will have a slight points lead (30 to be exact) over second place Carl Edwards.  Not only has Busch been the most consistent driver this season, if history is any indicator of what might occur over the next 10 races, he is the hands down favorite.

 As I mentioned earlier, Kyle Busch begins the Chase with a 30 point lead over Carl Edwards.  By looking back at every other Chase (since implementation in 2004) the biggest points deficit that a driver began the Chase with and went on to win, was 30 points.  In 2004 it was Kyle’s older brother, Kurt who won the championship after beginning the Chase in 7^th place only 30 points behind Jeff Gordon.

 The driver who has started the Chase in 1^st, has gone on to finish in the top 3 all four seasons this format has been in use.  Twice (2005 & 2007) the driver who began the Chase went on to win the Championship.

 Out of the 8 tracks Kyle Busch has already won at in 2008, 3 of those 8 appear once again on the Chase schedule (Atlanta, Talladega, and Dover).  The most races a driver has won in the Chase is four, and that was done twice by Jimmie Johnson (2007-finished 1^st, 2004-finished 2^nd, just 8 points behind the champion).  Even though NASCAR harps on the fact that “consistency wins championships,” wins are so much more important over the remainder of the season because there are only 10 races.  If you win, you get the most points.  If you get the most points, you win the championship.  It’s that simple.

 Of course so many freak things could happen over these ten races.  Generally one DNF (did not finish) ends a driver’s chances of having a chance to win the championship.  One victory earns between 185 & 195 points (depending on bonus points), while last place earns only 34 points.  So it is a possibility for a driver to gain a maximum of 151 & 161 points each race.  The best finish by a driver 151 points or more behind the champion is 6^th place.  2007 is an exception, with the 3^rd place finisher being a surprising 346 points behind first place.  Seeing as though one poor finish can mean the difference of 6 spots in the final point standings, drivers cannot afford to have an off week.

 Kyle Busch will still have to go out and fend off 11 other drivers for the championship, but if these trends continue, Kyle Busch should be looking at his first Sprint Cup Championship trophy come November.