Welcome to our MLB Fan Previews. Peter Gammons can give you all the inside info, John Kruk can remind you not to eat that extra donut and Steve Phillips can give you hope that you'd make a great GM ... but all these 'experts' combined can't top the true passion of the everyday fan. So that's what we're trying to provide you with here. Real thoughts and predictions from real fans. Hope you enjoy!  Today we continue with the Cincinnati Reds.

The Reds look to be competitive this year in a tough National League Central Division, which includes the reigning World Series Champion St. Louis Cardinals and the much-improved Chicago Cubs. The Reds finished last season with a record of 80-82, which placed them third in the NL Central, behind St. Louis and Houston. They started off the season great, but couldn’t finish the year as strong as they needed to. They had their chances to pass St. Louis and were never up to the task.

Causes for Optimism

Pitching wise, the Reds have 2 strong starting pitchers on top of their rotation in Bronson Arroyo and Aaron Harang. If the bottom of the rotation can pitch some decent outings than the Reds wont have to rely too much on their weak bullpen. Harang looked strong all the way through last season, whereas Arroyo had trouble getting his 10th win (I believe I saw him in person twice go for the 10th win). You can’t place all the blame on him, though. The bullpen blew quite a few of his leads.

On offense, I look for Brandon Phillips to have a breakout year. He had an unbelievable year in 2006 and really showed what he could do both offensively and defensively. I am looking for more of the same this year. Edwin Encarnacion showed streaks of greatness in 2006, his first full year in the majors. I feel like he could be a great young player for the Reds offensively. Now, if only he could improve on some of the errors that he made last year.

Causes for Concern

Ken Griffey Jr. comes into this year already injured, which is not a good start. He is recovering from a broken wrist that he apparently got while playing with his kids. He has become a fragile player, and the Reds need him to be able to play a whole year. He is always a threat when he is in the line-up.

The Reds didn’t do too much to improve this off-season. They added a few players in Alex Gonzalez, Jeff Conine, and Bobby Crosby, but nothing that really stood out. They didn’t do much to improve their horrendous bullpen, except by adding 39 yr old Jeff Stanton.

Nothing against Ryan Freel, he is a great player, but I don’t know if he is an everyday right fielder. He is great as a utility player, but when playing everyday he doesn’t seem to have the great stats that he does off of the bench. But he does make those amazing plays every once in a while that you will see in the “web gem” segment on Baseball Tonight.

The real weak spot for the Reds this season lies in their bullpen. With no real closer, they have many of possibilities but no real answer. Fighting for the job during spring training are David Weathers, Todd Coffey, Bill Bray, Rheal Cormier, Mike Stanton* and Kerry Lightenberg*. Weathers, Stanton and Lightenberg have played the role of closer before, but none have been the lock-down closer the Reds would like. They are hoping that once Eddie Guardado returns from ligament replacement surgery in his left elbow (targeting late June), he will be the closer that will be able to finish off games. He was 8-for-10 in save opportunities for the Reds last season before having to end his season early.

Projected Line-Up
C- Dave Ross (.255, 21 hr, 52 rbi)
1B- Scott Hatteberg (.289, 13 hr, 51 rbi)
2B- Brandon Phillips (.276, 17 hr, 75 rbi)
3B- Edwin Encarnacion (.276, 15 hr, 72 rbi)
SS- Alex Gonzalez (.255, 9 hr, 50 rbi) *
LF- Adam Dunn (.234, 40 hr, 92 rbi)
CF- Ken Griffey Jr. (.252, 27 hr, 72 rbi)
RF- Ryan Freel (.271, 8 hr, 27 rbi)
* = new acquisition for 2007 The batting order will probably change numerous times throughout the year, especially since Cincinnati does not have a signature lead-off man. Ryan Freel will most likely start the year in that position, but things will be changed numerous times.

Cincinnati’s key players off the bench will be:
OF- Jeff Conine (.268, 10 hr, 66 rbi) *
OF- Bubba Crosby (.207, 1 hr, 6 rbi) *
IF- Juan Castro (.284, 2 hrs, 14 rbi with the Reds)
C- Javier Valentin (.269, 8 hr, 27 rbi)

Projected Rotation/Bullpen
Aaron Harang (16-11, 3.76 era, 216 K)
Bronson Arroyo (14-11, 3.29 era, 184 K)
Eric Milton (8-8, 5.19 era, 90 K)
Kyle Lohse (3-5, 4.57, 51 K with the Reds)
Elizardo Ramirez, Bobby Livingston, Matt Belisle, Paul Wilson, or Homer Bailey
Bullpen still to be decided

5 Bold Prediction for 2007

• The Reds will win the Wild Card (86-76)
• Brandon Phillips will be an All-Star
• Aaron Harang will go 17-10 with an era under 3.40
  
• Ken Griffey Jr. will play 80% of the games
• Adam Dunn will strike out LESS than 165 times (though this might be stretching it)

Utility Men (recommended blogs)
Red Reporter
Red Hot Mama
Redlegs Rundown
Cincinnati Reds Blog

Share your thoughts on the 2007 Cincinnati Reds.