For 2007 to be an accomplishment for Kansas City, the bar is set pretty low compared to other MLB franchises: Don't lose 100 games. As easy as that may seem, the Royals have managed to lose 100 games in each of the past three seasons, but look to improve in 2007, the first full season the Royals are under the direction of General Manager Dayton Moore.
When Moore came in, he realized that the biggest problem area in the Royals organization was the severe lack of pitching talent. Immediately, he made a splash and traded for nine young power-throwing minor leaguers around the trade deadline. In the offseason, Moore made the most controversial move by signing Gil Meche, a relatively mediocre starting pitcher who immediately became the Royals "ace." Moore did not walk into an organization with a completely bare cupboard though, as star prospects Alex Gordon and Billy Butler are expected to contribute soon on the major-league level, as well as having 2006's #1 draft pick, Luke Hochevar, and other budding prospects such as Chris Lubanski, Mitch Maier, and Justin Huber.
Will the Royals improve enough to avoid the cellar in the AL Central, or is 2007 just a buffer year until the younger prospects will contribute and lead the team back to respectability?
Reasons for Optimism
Alex Gordon is the #1 prospect in Major League Baseball and carries heavy expectations as being the next George Brett for Kansas City. Playing Brett's position, third base, necessitated the move of Mark Teahen to the outfield, strengthening the overall outfield corps and allowing fellow uber-prospect and outfielder Billy Butler to mature in the minors (and hopefully learn to play defense) instead of being rushed up too quickly to the big show. Gordon, on the other hand, has forced Dayton Moore's hand and will likely be the starting third baseman on opening day in Kansas City. His future appears bright and if he even comes close to meeting expectations, Gordon will be a star in Kansas City.
Although many decried Dayton Moore for signing Meche to the $55M/5-year deal in the offseason, the deal itself signified that the Royals ownership is finally willing to pay, and in this situation, overpay in order to improve the ballclub. If the ownership continues to allow Moore to spend the money necessary to again make the Royals competitive, more major-leaguers may come to Kansas City, knowing that the Royals are dedicated to putting a winning product on the field.
By signing Meche and Octavio Dotel and trading for Brian Bannister, Moore greatly improved the Royals pitching staff that was brutal a year ago. Nobody expects the Royals pitching staff to be phenomenal, but this year's crop of pitchers should be a huge improvement over 2006. If Dotel can stay healthy and regain his pre-injury 2004 form, he may be the biggest key to improving the Royals record, as former closer Ambiorix Burgos led the league in blown saves last year and has thankfully moved on to the Mets this past offseason. Additionally, if former #6 overall pick Zack Greinke can get over his personal demons and pitch to his potential, he could provide a huge lift to the starting rotation. However, it is just as likely that Greinke may not even make the starting rotation out of spring training, given his history of mental health.
Reasons for Concern
The starting pitcher rotation still stinks. Gil Meche will be the "ace", and on most other teams he would likely be a 3rd or 4th starter, at best. Odalis Perez has had success in the past, but more recently he posted a 5.64 ERA in 12 starts for the Royals in 2006. Luke Hudson has secured the role as #3 starter and has shown flashes of brilliance, but has not been consistent enough to be counted on for solid starts. The 4th starting job will likely go to Brian Bannister, who was acquired in a trade this past offseason. He is not an overpowering pitcher and relies on sharp placement of his pitches to be successful, but if his location is not sharp, the opposition may treat him as if he's throwing batting practice pitches all day long. The fifth starter will be a fluid spot in the rotation all year, as the aforementioned young arms which Dayton Moore acquired will all probably get shots throughout the season. If Zack Greinke pitches well in spring training, the spot is probably his, but if either him or Bannister fail, a younger pitcher, perhaps even 2006's #1 overall pick Luke Hochevar, will get a shot to show his stuff. Jorge De La Rosa is also a strong contender for the fifth spot, and if he can gain better control, could be a very solid option this season. Joakim Soria and Todd Wellemeyer also remain as options for the fifth slot in the rotation. Overall, there's not a lot of optimism for this starting rotation, however Meche, Perez, and Greinke do have a substantial upside and could surprise some people. However, it is more likely that the starting rotation will be a sore spot for the Royals all season long.
John Buck and Angel Berroa. John Buck will be the starting catcher in 2007 and will be backed up by Jason LaRue. Blech. Buck is an awful hitter and a questionable game-caller, so unless he improves dramatically, Buck will be a drag on an otherwise solid lineup. Berroa will be the starting shortstop with very little competition, unless utility man
As much grief as "the Captain" Mike Sweeney has taken from the Royals faithful, when he is healthy, Sweeney can still be a dangerous hitter in the middle of the Royals lineup and can really anchor this young team. Is this the year that Sweeney can finally stay healthy and provide leadership and hitting for an entire season? Probably not. Can Octavio Dotel stay healthy and revert to his former efficiency as closer? Can Zack Greinke overcome his anxiety and live up to his expectations? Will Mark Teahen fully recover from last season's shoulder injury and continue his productivity? These questions are critical to the progress that the Royals will make in 2007, and if all three are answered negatively, the Royals will be destined to hold down the cellar once again.
The AL Central is the best division in baseball and is the biggest reason the Royals will have an extremely difficult time showing progression from 2006 to 2007. This upcoming season again looks to be a difficult situation for the Royals to gain any ground on the big boys in the division.
Projected Lineup (2006 stats in parentheses)
CF David DeJesus - (.295/.364./.446, 8 HR, 56 RBI)
2B Mark Grudzielanek - (.297/.331/.409, 7 HR, 52 RBI)
RF Mark Teahen - (.290/.357/.517, 18 HR, 69 RBI)
DH Mike Sweeney - (.258/.349/.438, 8 HR, 33 RBI)
1B Ryan Shealy - (.277/.333/.450, 7 HR, 37 RBI)
3B Alex Gordon - (Rookie)
LF Emil Brown - (.287/.358/.457, 15 HR, 81 RBI)
C John Buck - (.245/.306/.396, 11 HR, 50 RBI)
SS Angel Berroa - (.234/.259/.333, 9 HR, 54 RBI)
Projected Rotation/Bullpen (2006 Stats in parentheses)
Gil Meche, RHP (11-8, 4.48 ERA)
Odalis Perez, LHP (2-4, 5.64 ERA)
Luke Hudson, RHP (7-6, 5.12 ERA)
Brian Bannister, RHP (2-1, 4.26 ERA)
Zack Greinke, RHP (DNP)/ Jorge de la Rosa, LHP (5-6, 6.49 ERA)
Octavio Dotel, RHP - Closer (only 10 IP)
Jimmy Gobble, LHP - Long Relief (4-6, 5.14)
David Riske, RHP - Setup (1-2, 3.89)
John Bale, LHP - Setup (DNP)
5 Bold Predictions
- The Royals will NOT lose 100 games in 2007 season (70-92).
- Alex Gordon will be the AL Rookie of the Year.
- Mark Teahen will be an All-Star. . . and actually deserve it.
- Gil Meche will win at least 14 games.
- Royals fans will be drinking heavily, hoping that 2008 comes quickly. (ok, not bold, but more of a likelihood)
Utility Men (Team specific blogs I recommend)
Royals Review
Rob and Rany on the Royals
Royals Authority
The Soul of Baseball
Give me your thoughts on the 2007 Royals. Be Gentle.
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