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3/6/08
MLB Fan Previews: Baltimore Orioles
Yeah, baseball season. You've probably been reading all sort of previews from the experts, but they are not half as entertaining as the kool-aid induced thoughts from the fans who love their teams the most. Over the next month you'll be previewing the MLB, so let CF know if you'd like to contribute. Up first, my beloved (except for the owner) Orioles.

Expectations I know these are supposed to be Kool-Aid thoughts, but those thoughts are nowhere to be found in Charm City this year. The Orioles are going to suck and suck hard this year. Last place looks like a very real possibility. That is what happens when a team trades their two most recognizable and arguably best players, with a third nearing completion at some point. As you will see though, most O's fans are fine with this development.

What's New in 2008?
Added: Adam Jones, George Sherill, Luke Scott
Departed: Erik Bedard, Miguel Tejada, Corey Patterson, Kris Benson, Anna Benson

Reasons for Optimism They've finally realized what everyone else knew: the O's weren't going anywhere and true rebuilding needed to start. No more of the usual half-ass trying to win that inevitably produced a 75 win season at best. It'll be a long process getting back into contention, but at least there's a plan in place for once at Camden Yards.

The outfield will be something to watch. Nick Markakis enters his third season, having last year eclipsed a .300 average, 20 home runs, and 100 RBIs last season. At just 24, he's already the focal point of the offense. In center will be the prize of the Bedard trade, Adam Jones. Jones destroyed AAA last year and held this own for the most part during a big league trial. Plus, he's only 22 (He's two weeks older than me. Schnikes.), leaving much room for improvement. At left field will be Luke Scott, acquired in the Tejada trade. He doesn't have the upside of the other two, but his career numbers are .273/.366/.516, which beats any left fielder the O's have had since BJ Surhoff in his prime.

There's chatter about the change in culture with the team thanks to the infusion of younger talent. I'm hoping that's true because the usual culture has been "veterans start sulking and tanking sometime around July."

Reasons Camden Yards Will Be Half Empty Again The two most recognizable players were traded, with the third potentially gone. Short term that's gonna hurt the bottom line.

With the exception of Jones, all the new young guys are pitchers. This isn't a bad thing on its own, since you can never have too much young pitching. However, what is a problem is that the lineup is still filled with older guys who won't be around the next good Orioles team. Unfortunately, they're also not good enough to fetch anything of value in the trade market. Thus, it's more of the same from the Melvin Moras and Kevin Millars.

The pitching staff has a good chance of being brutal. Jeremy Guthrie is the clear-cut #1, unless of course last year was a mirage and he turns back into a pumpkin. After that is Daniel "Only the Delusional Still Think I Can Be Good" Cabrera. Then it's Adam Loewen, who's coming off a stress fracture in his elbow, and Garrett Olson, who has lots of potential but struggled last year. Finally, there's Radhames Liz, who looks like he's on the Daniel Cabrera 2.0 career path. The potential is there, but there could be a lot of growing pains.

The Orioles can still do boneheaded moves and alienate players. Troy Patton, the prize of the Tejada trade, has already been shut down for the season with what might be a labrum tear. Meanwhile, the team can't even renew a contract without pissing off a player, in this case, their best player.

Stupid Angelos. Because it can't be said enough.

Projected Lineup/Rotation

2B Brian Roberts (if and when he's traded, Freddie Bynum would play second and presumably not hit lead-off)
3B Melvin Mora
RF Nick Markakis
DH Aubrey Huff
C Ramon Hernandez
LF Luke Scott
1B Kevin Millar
CF Adam Jones
SS Luis Hernandez

Jeremy Guthrie
Daniel Cabrera
Adam Loewen
Garrett Olson
Radhames Liz

George Sherill, closer
Jamie Walker, LH setup
Chad Bradford, RH setup

Five Bold Predictions
1. Last Place fever! Catch it!
2. The team starts poorly as the young pitchers struggle.
3. Nick Markakis posts at least a .900 OPS, and Adam Jones posts at least an .800 OPS.
4. At least one of young pitchers (and there are many more I didn't mention) has a breakthrough and becomes a solid member of the rotation. I have no idea which one. If I were to guess, I'd say Olson.
5. Most of the guys over 30 are traded by July 31st, and the young players prevent the usual late season embarrassments.

Official Kool-Aided (Sort of) Predictions
67-95
Last Place in the AL East
6 comments
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3/6/08
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The poll can be found here until I can reattach it to the blog.

3/6/08
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As somebody who's a fan of a forever rebuilding team and a fan of anyone who plays the Yankees and Red Sox, good luck with the rebuilding.

 
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