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About the Author - Orange Lantern
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MLB Fan Previews: San Francisco Giants
3/18/08
Yeah, baseball season! You've probably been reading all sort of previews from the experts, but they are not half as entertaining as the kool-aid induced thoughts from the fans who love their teams the most. Over the next month you'll be previewing the MLB, so let CF know if you'd like to contribute. Up next, the San Francisco Giants by Orange Lantern.
The Orange Lantern is a bay area native and Giants die-hard for the last 20 years. He was in attendance in Anaheim for Game 6 and still wakes up in sweats to visions of the Rally Monkey. He has been known to leave one flap down when he runs the bases for his softball team, and he sports the occasional “Nuschler” face while watching the Giants from the field club. He likes Mike Krukow, but does not bring his glove to the game, refuses to refer to players as “meat”, and does not grab pine.
The Orange Lantern is a bay area native and Giants die-hard for the last 20 years. He was in attendance in Anaheim for Game 6 and still wakes up in sweats to visions of the Rally Monkey. He has been known to leave one flap down when he runs the bases for his softball team, and he sports the occasional “Nuschler” face while watching the Giants from the field club. He likes Mike Krukow, but does not bring his glove to the game, refuses to refer to players as “meat”, and does not grab pine.
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As the Giants say goodbye to the highs and hangovers of the Barry Bonds era, it is clear the team is undertaking a change in strategy that emphasizes youth and internally-developed talent. This was clear in the team’s refusal to trade any of its promising young arms in the offseason to try to shore up perhaps the worst run-producing lineup in the National League. The Giants’ front office and PR machine has taken a page from the Barack Obama campaign by reciting the theme of “change” over and over again, hoping the mere repetition of the word will embed in fans’ minds and help sell a clearly inexperienced and inferior product. It seems to be working for Obama, and we’ll see if AT&T Park is again packed this year, as fans digest the new message.
What’s new in 2008?
The Bonds Barcalounger is gone from the clubhouse, and the star’s divisiveness is gone with it. Because it seems every sportswriter is obligated to have an opinion on Bonds, I’ll state mine for the record: Bonds was a Hall of Famer who deserves a place alongside his Godfather as part of Giants’ history. He does not deserve the rap for baseball’s drug culture, even if he symbolized it. With that said, he left a bad aftertaste in my mouth, much like the one my wife complains about after a night of Marzens and garlic fries at the park. Was Bonds’ tenure worth the after-effects? Was it all worth it? Who cares, let’s move on.
If nothing else, the Giants will be modestly younger this year, though the team will still be spotted with some of the jaded veterans that have marked the Brian Sabean era. Like most fans, I’ve lowered my expectations, and recommend you do the same. Instead of looking for change I can believe in, I’m just looking for – as Bret Michaels would say – something to believe in.
3 Reasons to be Skeptical of the “New” Giants
- Brian Sabean is still in charge. While I have never been a huge Sabean fan, I have to, for no other reason, admire his survivability. I mean, what GM survives with a resume that includes:
a) a draft history that has underperformed a chimp throwing darts;
b) the outright neglect of the player-development pipeline;
c) the “Shinjo” experiment (how does that dude come up in the 9th inning of the World Series?);
d) a starring role as a villain in the Mitchell report;
e) an average of 74 wins over 3 years with the league’s 4th/5th highest payroll.
I will give Sabes a pass on his trade record, as pickups like Kent and Schmidt compensate for the errors like Nathan, Liriano, Foulke, etc. The free agency strategy: bringing in aging vets, letting them find their way to BALCO, and then watching them turn back the clock 5 years, is clearly off the table now. Looking forward, I’d like to see Sabean take a few more risks, spread a bit more optimism, get out of his East Coast conservatism, and show some backbone with management. All of that seems contra to his Cheney-esque personality, but let’s give him a chance. While I doubt he’ll ever be mentioned with the great bay area sports minds – Walsh, Beane, Nelson, the young Al Davis, etc.—maybe we’ll remember him more fondly than we do today if he can at least start to right the ship.
- We have a profit-first mentality in the front office. The Giants’ management team has escaped criticism of its profitable stewardship of the team for 3 main reasons: (1) they kept the team from relocating to St. Petersberg; (2) they built and partially paid for Pac Bell Park, and; (3) the team has generally been competitive (if not threatening) on its watch. Let’s be real about #1. Management bought the team because they saw the Giants as an undervalued asset that they believed they could turn around successfully, while reaping the rewards of owning a major league team. This was not a public service project. As for #2, I think we all admire the wonder that is soon to be China Telecom Park. The game experience is just phenomenal, and this comes from someone who has been to 20+ yards around the country. With that said, the experience is more than embedded in the price of attending a game. What team jacks prices from $40 to $70 as it skids to the cellar? A ticket to the Giants now rivals a ticket to the Warriors, and you really can’t compare those two game experiences. From what I can tell, player investments have not kept up with revenue. That will be a losing formula with fans over the long-term.
- The lineup stinks. There is a problem when your lineup hinges on a guy who was the 5th best hitter on a team that only won 87 games last year (ain the imfamous contract year). I like Aaron Roward, but blind yourself from the appealing eyeblack and his stats look ordinary to me (baseball-reference.com likens him to Kal Daniels, who fans of the 80s probably don’t remember from his un-memorable days in Cincinnatta). I wasn’t asking for a Vlad Guerrero, but I would have expected the Giants’ one big “splash” free agent position player to – at a minimum – represent a big improvement over the incumbent. I might be missing something, but I really don’t see Rowand as a big jump up from Randy Winn. Roward is a lifetime .286 hitter, Winn is a lifetime .286 hitter. Per 162 games, Rowand has produced 18 HRs (largely in a hitter’s park), 66 RBI, and 10 SBs. Winn has produced 12 HRs, 65 RBI, and 21 SBs. I wonder if Sabean didn’t fall more for his “game face” than his skills. I’d have preferred to spend an extra $3 million per year for Magglio Ordonez when he was available, or Vlad Guerrero before that. The Giants are truly proving how expensive it can be when you are cheap.
3 Reasons to be Optimistic
- We might stumble on some young talent. I am hoping one of the young players comes out of nowhere this year. I’m betting on Nate Schierholz and Brian Wilson as two names to emerge this year. Billy Beane has always espoused the idea that one of the easiest tweaks to a young player is to teach him to hit for power, and that’s all Schierholtz is really lacking. He quietly hit .304 as a rookie, and was particularly comfortable in the 2-spot in the lineup, where he hit .357 and slugged .571 in (an admittedly-limited) 28 at bats. I do think he’ll need to show some respectable power, at least of the power-alley variety, to differentiate himself from SF’s other outfielders (as of this writing, he had 1 HR and 1 2B in 19 at-bats in Spring Training – he also led the team with 8 RBIs). I am less enthusiastic about Ortmeier and Frandsen, if only because I have come to expect most Sabean draftees to eventually turn into a Damon Minor or a Cody Ransom. Frandsen already has the label of being “good in the clubhouse”, which just makes me think he might be our Frank Menechino. Wilson has the stuff and the presence to close, and I would not be surprised to see him save 35 games this year. He will be preceded by another of my favorite Giants, Tyler Walker, also coming off surgery. Walker is a bulldog who just seems to be able to find a way to get outs. Those two bring a mental toughness that will serve the Giants well down the stretch in games where they are protecting a thin lead (and all their leads are likely to be thin!). I don’t think hopes could be any lower for our bullpen, and that’s an area I think we have a chance to be respectable, especially in the 8th and 9th.
- Team chemistry will be improved. Chemistry is overrated in baseball, but it clearly doesn’t hurt that this team will be unburdened by the divisive presence brought by Barry and the Barcalounger. The team still has its share of jaded vets in the clubhouse, but the youthful enthusiasm will be worth a few wins. When no one is reminding you constantly that you haven’t proven yourself, it is sometimes easier to perform. With much of that negative clubhouse element gone, I expect more guys will play up to their potential. This team is definitely going to want to win for its young pitchers, who were robbed of at least a dozen wins last year. That chemistry alone might be good for 5-10 more wins than we might expect.
- Starting pitching. Any Giants fan knows the strength of this team is in its starting rotation, with Zito, Cain, Lincecum, and Lowry. While we may be getting a bit ahead of ourselves with these guys (it not that long ago we were fired up for Ainsworth, Vogelsong, Jerome Williams, Foppert, etc) at least 2 of them will likely pan out to be 15-17 game winners. That’s half way to a staff, which is more than many teams can claim.
Projected Lineup (will be something like this, it won't really matter anyway)
- Dave Roberts, LF
- Kevin Frandsen, SS
- Randy Winn, RF
- Aaron Rowand, CF
- Bengie Molina, C
- Ray Durham, 2B
- Rich Aurilia, 3B
- Dan Ortmeier 1B
Rotation
- Zito
- Cain
- Lincecum
- Lowry (likely replaced by Sanchez if his tendonitis sticks around)
- Correija
Projected Finish
70-92, Last place. A realistic expectation for fans will be for this team to play hard and be likeable. That won’t be enough to fill the park, but it will be enough to keep the core fans interested...at least until football season. The real question is whether Magowan and Sabean can take credible steps toward re-creating the franchise as one that develops core talent internally and that spends free-agent money on difference-makers instead of oxygen-stealers.
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