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11/13/07
MLB Free Agents: Most Likely to Disappoint
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MLB's Free Agent signing period is officially underway, so let the overpaying begin! There are 144 players in this year's class. Some will aid a long playoff run while most will drain the bank account with very little to show for on the field. Who's going to be the biggest bust?

6 Guys Sure to Be Overpaid and Disappoint

Kosuke Fukudome
While I hope the Cubs sign him simply due to name alone, he doesn't have a chance to live up to the contract he's likely to receive. 30 is hardly over the hill, but he doesn't seem worth the investment with minimal power at the plate and just above average contact at the plate.

Francisco Cordero
At age 32, I think the best is behind him. Like a lot of closers, they have a brief run of great success followed by a huge contract and minimal results. Count Cordero among those this offseason.

Paul LoDuca
He's done at age 35, but someone will be shelling out too much cash in hopes for one last championship run.

Kyle Lohse
Get ready for a Ted Lilly-Gil Meche shocker of a contract but without the follow up performance on the field. What's the big deal about Kyle?

Todd Jones
Already resigned with Detroit, which is hard to believe because of all teams that should have seen the signs of a downward trend it's them. Brace yourselves, Tigers fans.

Brad Wilkerson
You know there's one GM out there still banking on his 2004 season in Montreal and believing some playing time in his town will unlock his unlimited potential. His contract will prove all you need is one good year to set yourself up for good.

Who do you think will be the biggest FA bust?

Later, some guys who may be overpaid but will deliver in a new uniform.
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11/13/07
3
CriticalFanatic wrote:
He'll definitely be overpaid, but I think he's only going to get only a short term deal in a new city and he'll perform well enough with this second chance to strike it rich.
He's a Boras guy so I see one of two things. First, Boras will go for the huge long term deal where the team will be killed salary wise at the end of it. Second if he can't get that because of Jones' poor season last year, he'll go for the big time one year deal (like Millwood and Cleveland) and then shoot for the albatross type contract the following season (like Millwood and Texas).

11/13/07
0

Someone is going to overpay Andruw Jones.  I know he has a good history, but after last season, any huge deal he signs is overpaying him until he proves otherwise.

 

Yea, I got a chip on my shoulder.


11/13/07
0

Kyle Lohse, Carlos Silva, Livan Hernadez.

All pitchers that have high contact rates (lots of ball in play, few strikeouts), but are the best available starters out there, so they will be overpaid for the value they bring back.


11/13/07
0
tpowell25 wrote:

Someone is going to overpay Andruw Jones.  I know he has a good history, but after last season, any huge deal he signs is overpaying him until he proves otherwise.

 

Yea, I got a chip on my shoulder.

He'll definitely be overpaid, but I think he's only going to get only a short term deal in a new city and he'll perform well enough with this second chance to strike it rich.

11/13/07
3
CriticalFanatic wrote:
He'll definitely be overpaid, but I think he's only going to get only a short term deal in a new city and he'll perform well enough with this second chance to strike it rich.
He's a Boras guy so I see one of two things. First, Boras will go for the huge long term deal where the team will be killed salary wise at the end of it. Second if he can't get that because of Jones' poor season last year, he'll go for the big time one year deal (like Millwood and Cleveland) and then shoot for the albatross type contract the following season (like Millwood and Texas).

11/13/07
0
CriticalFanatic wrote:
He'll definitely be overpaid, but I think he's only going to get only a short term deal in a new city and he'll perform well enough with this second chance to strike it rich.

It all depends on who lands him.  Some teams will spend ridiculous amounts of money to wrap him up no matter what.  Some will play it smart and offer him a deal like you mentioned.  I don't think it will be the person or agent that will determine the contract as much as it will be the employer.  I think it can go either way.

 

Your comment make a lot of sense though.  And with what Seth pointed out, it makes even more sense.  Good points.


11/13/07
0
If someone gives Lohse a Meche/Lilly contract, all faith in talent evaluators and GM's at the big league level may be lost.  He sucks.  Badly.  At least Meche and Lilly had upside.

11/13/07
0

I definitely agree on CoCo.  I'd love to have him back in Milwaukee but at the price he is going to be able to command I can't blame him for leaving and wouldn't want him back for it.

 

To add to this list, Torii Hunter will definitely be overpaid and disappoint, and most likely Aaron Rowand.  Hunter is a slightly above average hitter who is getting older and guaranteed to start going downhill.  Rowand has had a couple good seasons but with all the hits he's taken how long can he even last?


11/13/07
2
Judging by this class, the correct answer might be "all of them."

 
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