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3/24/08
MLB Season Predictions: American League East
Hard to believe the Major League Baseball seasons starts tomorrow morning at 6 am ET (and yes, we'll be up live blogging) with the Boston Red Sox and Oakland A's playing in Japan. The season gets underway in earnest one week from today.

It's time to run through each division and share our predictions. Hopefully you'll do the same.

The biggest question every year for the AL East is will someone ever break of the Yankees and Red Sox at the top? The answer remains no, but at least the Blue Jays and Devil Rays might be more competitive. As for Baltimore, we just hope they don't set any of the bad kind of records.

I haven't done all the research I'd like, but here's where my predictions stand this afternoon.

1. Boston Red Sox
Why they'll win
-
Jacoby Ellsbury's reign in center field has officially begun and everything would indicate he'll be a very valuable leadoff hitter for many years. Overall, the lineup is just as solid as last year's World Series champion.
- Daisuke Matzusaka should be more comfortable with American League batters and making adjustments as they've done with him. His win total will improve by 3-4 at least.
- Clay Buccholz is now in the third spot. That could be bad news, but he's clearly up for the task. Bad news for him is less time around his playmate girlfriend.

Why they won't
- Josh Beckett's back. He pitched OK in a minor league game on Sunday. His back will remain an issue all year and any significant absence from their ace could push the Sox into Wild Card status with Detroit/Cleveland.
- David Ortiz dropped from 54 home runs in 2006 to 35 in '07. He's still as clutch as anyone in the game, but you'd have to think we'll see another decline in performance this year.

Prediction
So long as experience comes through more than injuries, the Red Sox should compete all year for the best record in the AL. I'm not thrilled with the pitching staff, not the increasingly older middle of the lineup but it's not time to predict a down year.
97-65; Loss in ALCS

2. New York Yankees
Why they'll win
- Alex Rodriguez. I'm one of those that puts a lot of stock into contract status, so I doubt A-Rod matches last year's totals, but even a minor decline is enough to carry a team to the playoffs. 35 home run, 120 RBI's should suffice.
- Chien-Ming Wang was as good as any other pitcher in the AL for stretches of last season. Should get his 20 wins this year and provide some consistency on the pitching front.
- If Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy can over deliver, then you've got your AL East champs. For now they'll be sufficient. Any injuries or set backs here could really through the Yanks off.

Why they won't
- Relying on Mike Mussina and Andy Pettitte for 300+ IP is too much to ask and there's no one around to fill in.
- Johnny Damon's average continues to drop. If he stays on its pace, he'll bat .255 from the leadoff position. Not good.
- Are you confident in a healthy Bobby Abreu again this season? I'm not.

Prediction
The same goes for any team, avoid injuries and all will be right, but I'm not confident they'll go completely injury free which is what it will take for a playoff season in this year's American League. 90 wins is good, but not enough with Detroit and Cleveland above that plateau as well.
90-72; miss the playoffs

3. Tampa Bay Rays
Why they'll compete
- I know, I know, even the slightest notion of the Rays staying competitive in this division is hard to believe they're finally growing up.
- Kazmir, Shields and Garza is a very good 1-2-3. Shields is ready for a big breakthrough.
- Carl Crawford, Carlos Pena and B.J. Upton at 2-3-4 is as good as anyone outside the big contenders. If this lineup wore pinstripes and played in New York, I'm not so sure I wouldn't pick them to do even better.

Why they won't
- They're still the Rays, devil or not.
- A little too young, still.
- Jonny Gomes isn't exactly the ideal leadoff hitter. If he bats above .250 I'd be impressed. Hopefully Joe Maddon (who I think is an underrated manager) will get that figured out.

Prediction
83-79, begin shedding all the negative labels ... eye competing with the AL East kings in '09. Yes, I just said that.

4. Toronto Blue Jays
Why they could be better
- I like they're pitching staff as a whole. You know what you're getting from Halladay. A.J. Burnett has great stuff when he's heathly and McGowan could be a big sleeper. Just 23, but Jesse Litsch had some nasty stuff last year despite being lit up a few times.

Why they won't
- Put the Jays in the NL Central and they'd have a decent shot at the playoffs. Put it simply, Toronto is OK. Just not good enough in AL East with the Rays continuing to improve and passing them by.
- I don't like a lineup banking on Lyle Overbay, Alex Rios and then Frank Thomas at 2-3-4.

Prediction
79-83, no one really notices.

5. Baltimore Orioles
Why they'll suck
- This is how they're lineup reads: Not bad, Who?, Fair, He Still Plays?, Constant Letdown, What?, Old Balls, Good Luck, WTF! It's not going to be pretty, particularly having to play Boston and New York as much as they do.
- I like Jeremy Guthrie, he's got promise if the wasn't on the Orioles, but he's not exactly a staff ace.
- Danny Cabrera is the guy I always go for in fantasy baseball thinking he'll really help out my K's ... and then he goes and walks even more batters. Yes, he's their #2.
- George Sherrill is the closer. Yea, I don't know who he is, either. The good news is, he'll rarely be in a position to blow a lead.

Prediction
63-99, and I'm just being nice so it doesn't read 100 losses.

Let's hear your predictions.
4 comments
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3/24/08
0
(Edited by barmarjeff)
Wouldn't Vernon Wells be hitting third for the Blue Jays?

3/24/08
0
Glad to see we'll be blogging here tomorrow. I will be up then definitely.

And did I really read the Rays in 3rd? Good luck with that pick CF...

3/24/08
1
It will again come down to Boston and New York, and i don't think the wild card will be in the east this year so that will be a fun race to watch all season.  I don't know if the Rays will be over .500 but they are a lot better and should get at least 75 wins and finish close to Toronto in 3rd or 4th.  Baltimore at 63-99 is being nice.  I wouldn't be surprised to see them get 60 wins.  I just don't get what they are doing to their team year after year.

3/24/08
0
(Edited by gearhead)
Thank you for the reminder that it's gonna be a loooooooooooong season. At least this year the O's have realized they suck and are (slowly) tearing things down. Although, I think you're underrating Roberts and Markakis, assuming they're the "not bad" and "fair" in that lineup.

 
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