Fat Tuesday. Shrove Tuesday. Mardi Gras. Whatever you want to call it, this is the last big blowout before the Lenten journey begins on Ash Wednesday tomorrow. Christians around the world are expected to make big sacrifices, or "give something up" during Lent. I've got my own way of doing things until Easter, but one of those things I plan to "give up" is losing plays.
Another rough night last night as not only did neither side of my parlay work out, but none of the 8 games on the schedule produced a single SU winner. That can only be described as an anomaly as it's never happened before, but it's got to stop. Tonight is the night. Here we go!
THE NBA (2-6 last night and 7-10 so far for the week)
SU WINNERS (0-8 last night and 5-11 so far for the week)
RAPTORS, HEAT, GRIZZLIES, JAZZ, LAKERS and WARRIORS
TOTALS (3-5 last night and 8-9 so far for the week)
OVERS - Blazers/GRIZZLIES (199), Suns/LAKERS (201 1/2) and Rockets/WARRIORS (219 1/2)
UNDERS - Nuggets/RAPTORS (207 1/2), Kings/GRIZZLIES (190 1/2) and Thunder/JAZZ (200 1/2)
BUTTA (0-1 last night and 0-2 so far for the week)
Nuggets (-2) over RAPTORS - A lot of what I do deals with trying to find the "holes" in The Book's numbers. Those guys rarely hit right on with a game, but sometimes, they're way off, and that's what I'm trying to exploit. I bring it up because my numbers tell me one thing for this game, but I happen to think those are way off. And in the process of realizing this, I'm getting a huge bargain at the same time with the Nugs. I figured this game would come with the Nuggets somewhere between 6 and 8 point chalk. The Dinos have played much better, but they're not going to be able to stand up to the Nugs pace. Also, Denver has won 9 of the last 10 meetings in this series and has gone 8-3 ATS in the last 11. RAPTORS 97, Nuggets 96
ALL THE REST
1. HEAT (-11 1/2) over Blazers - As is always the case with the Heat, we must worry most about their focus. They're clearly superior to the Blazers, but will the Heat be focused enough to really lay the wood to them? HEAT 118, Blazers 99
2. GRIZZLIES (-9) over Kings - The Kings are off a nice little 2-game home winning streak. The chances of them stretching it out another game are very low, but I don't have a lot of confidence in the Griz right now either. GRIZZLIES 90, Kings 73
3. JAZZ (+6) vs. Thunder - I'm not buying the projection I have for this game at all, but I can see where all those big bodies the Jazz can throw at the Thunder in the paint could cause some trouble for OkC. JAZZ 89, Thunder 87
4. LAKERS (-9) over Suns - Never a dull moment in LakerLand, but I don't think it's the apparent unrest in the locker room that's L.A.'s biggest enemy tonight. They're back home for the 1st time after the long Grammy Trip, and we've seen time and time again over the years how team's returning home for the 1st time off a long roadie often do play quite sluggishly. LAKERS 108, Suns 94
5. WARRIORS (-5) vs. Rockets - The Warriors are another team back home off a rugged 4-game road trip, and they basically got shredded. The 1st stop on that trip was in Houston where the Rocks laid 140 on Golden State. There might be a little revenge going here as that game is still relatively fresh in the Warriors mind, but it's certainly not enough of a factor to make me want to make a move. WARRIORS 122, Rockets 110
COLLEGE HOOPS (2-1 ATS/SU/TOTALS last night and 8-7/7-6/7-6 so far for the week)
1. VIRGINIA (-14, U125) 61, Virginia Tech 42
2. MICHIGAN ST. (+1 1/2, U131 1/2) 66, Michigan 64
3. CINCINNATI 64, Villanova (+7 1/2, U127) 60
4. RUTGERS (-4, U132 1/2) 65, Seton Hall 59
5. FLORIDA (-10 1/2, O134) 76, Kentucky 58
6. Alabama (-1 1/2, U113) 44, GEORGIA 41
Regardless of what the numbers here say, don't be surprised by a strong effort from Seton Hall tonight. The Dog is 14-3 ATS in the last 17 games in the series, and the road team is 19-7 ATS in the last 26. Have a great rest of your Mardi Gras. I'll talk to you again tomorrow.