Most Overrated and Underrated Teams Based on College Football's Preseason Polls

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8/20/07

Most Overrated and Underrated Teams Based on College Football's Preseason Polls

NCAAF

CriticalFanatic

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I understand the need for preseason polls, they help ramp up some excitement and assist in promoting the big early season games. However, far too often they shape the mindset for teams that directly affect the BCS. A team right now outside the Top 25 might very well be among the Top 10 teams of the country right now, but with so many spots to make up their chances are greatly diminished because some guys who haven't seen them play yet think they know how well they'll play.

ESPN's Mark Schlabach breaks down today in an article outline the most overrated and underrated teams based on preseason polling.

Evidence A: Since 1991, college football's national championship has come from outside the top 10 of the preseason Associated Press top 25 poll only four times -- Michigan was 14th in 1997, Oklahoma was 19th in 2000, Ohio State was 13th in 2002 and LSU was 14th in 2003

Evidence B: During the last 20 seasons, 13 teams have lost a game and still managed to finish the regular season ranked in the top two in the BCS standings or either poll of record. But only one of those teams -- LSU in 2003 -- was ranked lower than eighth in the preseason poll.

ESPN then calculated who has been the most overrated and underrated in preseason polls over the last 10 years by calculating the change each year from these polls to the final poll of the year. Take a stab at who you think would top each of these lists.

You'd hardly guess who came out as the most overrated. Actually, no, no you wouldn't. Florida State. 7 of the last 10 years the Seminoles finished lower than projected.

Guess which part of the country represents the top three underrated? Washington State, Boise State and Oregon somewhat surprisingly have been the most overlooked. The Pac-10 has also been the most underrated conference over this 10 years span as well.

Playing along with this game, let us know who you think has been the most overrated and underrated in the preseason polls this year.

Preseason polls aren't perfect (ESPN)
Picking on the Pollsters: Preseason AP College Football Rankings (FanIQ)

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8/20/07

Todd

0	Not surprised by Boise State or Oregon, but I am about Washington State. The Cougars would have one great year, that a few down years.

8/20/07

CriticalFanatic

Todd wrote:

Not surprised by Boise State or Oregon, but I am about Washington State. The Cougars would have one great year, that a few down years.

I think Wash St being atop this study might have more to do with the way it was put together. Many times the Cougars have been COMPLETELY off the map and then rose close or into the rankings, but other times have been just outside the rankings and fell way off the map by the end of the year. That type of season isn't reflected at all with this system.

8/20/07

kantwistaye

0	MY favorite part of the article is that according to his study, the SEC has been overrated, but in his article he writes about how the SEC is still underrated. Wouldn't be the first time Schlabach has been accused of having an SEC bias.

8/20/07

dthagg

Florida has to be the most overrated this year. Coachs poll of 3 and an AP of 6. I think this is all part of the hype between being last years champs and Tim Tebow. The fact is that Florida has lost a lot of players and Tebow has only been used as a situation QB. Tebow is not going to be able to run the ball every play against the quick SEC defences.

TCU would be the most underrated. They have one of the best 'D' in college football this season. I'm thinking they could possible upset Texas in their second game.

8/20/07

Jubanator14

0	kantwistaye wrote: MY favorite part of the article is that according to his study, the SEC has been overrated, but in his article he writes about how the SEC is still underrated. Wouldn't be the first time Schlabach has been accused of having an SEC bias. How can you be both overrated and underrated in the same article? Schlabach never fails to "impress" me.

8/20/07

kantwistaye

0	Jubanator14 wrote: How can you be both overrated and underrated in the same article? Schlabach never fails to "impress" me. Well according to his own numbers the SEC is overrated, but apparently Schlabach didn't like how his study came out and said "Screw the numbers!". Personally I think the whole thing is flawed anyway, but oh well.

8/20/07

CriticalFanatic

0	I'm by no means saying I'd do a better job, I wouldn't, but I've always been surprised that Schlabach has a job with the World Wide Leader. I'd prefer to read more of Bruce Feldman than Mark any day.

8/20/07

Jubanator14

kantwistaye wrote:

Well according to his own numbers the SEC is overrated, but apparently Schlabach didn't like how his study came out and said "Screw the numbers!". Personally I think the whole thing is flawed anyway, but oh well.

Yea the study was kinda flawed while at the same time being interested. I mean like it said in there, if they weren't ranked in the top 25 in the preseason, no matter where they got a ranking of 26 and the math was done from there. I guess they could have done the numbers with just teams that had been in the preseason poll for 5 out of the last 10 years instead of only 3 times out of 10. There are a few other things I'm sure he could have done. I like Feldman too. Ivan Maisel is also one that I enjoy reading and I could live without Forde & Schlabach.

8/20/07

jtm25

0

8/20/07

jtm25

I think with Miami at 39 going into the year with a new coach and new team they will have a very good season ahead and hopefully a better bowl than last year's Computers bowl which was good considering the year they had. I'm not saying all of thios stuff because i'm a Hurricane fan just because i think they will go higher on the expectations chart then most. Also Florida State ranked at 28 at the begining and they will surprise the other ACC team's because Miami and Florida State will both have 10 win or higher seasons. Another one on my list would be Auburn who comes into the season as a middle 16 rank but i have high hopes on them going all the way to win the championship.

8/20/07

jtm25

0	Forgot to add that for my overrated team in college football would be Florida Gators because they lost to many players to Graduation and Draft.

8/20/07

mightierpen

0	Proof that the myth of the caliber of football in the state of Florida is exaggerated. I think the overrating applies to the recruits there as well and it becomes cyclical. Top recruiting classes = top 5 program. Also validate smy belief that Clemson's Nat. Championship and success in the 80s provides a wave of hype on which they've ridden for 20 years.

8/21/07

sportsgnork

An extremely flawed system with a worse ranking system makes for too many problems. My personal opinion has been that the bigger conferences rank in the following order based on National Championships won and overall "We really do not want to play anyone in this conference because there goes our undefeated record". SEC-Big Ten-ACC-Big East-Big 12-Pac 10. Pac 10 is weak with only three decent teams, Oregon, UCLA and USC. In the Big 12, Nebraska is not what it used to be, Oklahoma is still holding strong, Texas has lost their Vince. The Big East is on the rise and I look forward to seeing them improve. The ACC is on the Bubble right now. Miami has just found out what it is like when you actually have to schedule decent teams. FSU is too busy dealing with off the field issues, Clemson?, Va Tech has the emotion. Big 10 is not to be messed with unless they face the SEC and we all know what happened there. SEC=If you go undefeated in conference play in the SEC or with one loss, automatic national championship bid as long as that one loss is the only one on your record. Face the facts, 26 national championships, dominant defenses, speed and tremendous running games. Until I see teams come down to the SEC and start challenging SEC teams left and right, then I will not be impressed. If USC, Michigan, Virginia Tech, Notre Dame(my team) want to be considered the best: play a regular season game with a nationally ranked SEC team on the road and beat them convincingly and then you have earned respect.