This weekend the Nextel Cup Series heads to Michigan for the 3M Performance 400.  Set in the scenic Irish Hills, the Michigan International Speedway is a 2 mile D-shaped oval, with 3 and 4 different grooves for drivers to run around the superspeedway.  Qualifying in the top 20 seems to be the place to start if your going to win at Michigan.  In the history of the track, this race has only been won 6 times from 20th or back.  In 50 of the 76 races, the winner came from the top five, 15 of them from the pole. 

When it comes to racing at Michigan, horsepower is the key to winning.  Just like racing at other superspeedway's, horsepower will be essential as a driver makes his way into the straightaways.  When entering the corners, a driver must have a good handling car that will stick into the track, making it harder for other cars to pass them.  Pit strategy is real huge at any track and the ability of a pit crew to gain their driver positions here will be a huge factor, especially late in the race.  This race will be won by the driver who has great engine package, that has qualified well and a pit crew that is consistently good on pit stops with no errors.

In the last 10 races run at Michigan, Carl Edwards has the best overall average finish, with 3 top 5's and a top 10.  He also won the race here in the spring, outlasting Martin Truex Jr, Tony Stewart and Casey Mears.  Speaking of Stewart, he's the hottest driver in the series with 3 wins in the past 4 races.  With the Chase looming, "Smoke" is dialed in and he will be Joe Gibbs' best bet for a win this weekend.  Matt Kenseth has 7 top 10's at Michigan and he's the defending champion of this particular race. 

Others to Watch

Jimmie Johnson - Johnson and Jeff Gordon have their crew chiefs — Chad Knaus and Steve Letarte — back this week.  All four Hendrick cars were very good in the June race, and Johnson has posted back to back top 5's after 2 straight DNF's.

Dale Earnhardt Jr-  last weeks DNF dropped him from 12th spot in the standings.  With 4 races left til the Chase, it's crunch time for Junior

Kurt Busch - With a streak of five straight rides into the top 11 and three Top 10's, Busch now sits in the 12th position in the Nextel Cup point standings.  Busch has raced to four Top 10's (seven top 20 finishes) in his last nine starts at the track, including a win in the June, 2003 event.

Mark Martin - He's coming off back to back Top 10's the last two weeks and has three Top 5's in his last six trips to Michigan. He's running as well as he has since the year's first two months and has won at this track four times in the past.

Ryan Newman - Penske South has been running well lately and Newman is excellent qualifier with 2 wins at Michigan. 

What the experts think

My pick - Kenseth - Sure, he had an unfortunate wreck in the June race, but before that, he hadn't finished below 17th in any of his previous 15 starts at Michigan, he's the defending champ of this August race and he has two overall wins, six Top 5's and 10 Top 10's at MIS. Tough not to play that record this weekend.

Sleeper pick - Greg Biffle - He may be having a down year, but before his ugly 38th-place finish at the June Michigan race, he had placed in the top seven in five straight trips to this track, including a pair of wins.